It’s really impossible to say how Rice ED will pan out. I certainly think there’s a chance you’ll be accepted, but also a strong chance that you won’t. You didn’t consider doing athletic recruitment for tennis?
Between the Arizona full ride and the UC’s, you’ll definitely have good options no matter what, so you might as well shoot your shot at the schools you’d most love to attend. If you’re not already planning to do the additional application for the College of Creative Studies at UCSB, definitely take a close look at this option - it could be a great fit for you. If you like the social vibe at schools like Rice and Vandy, UCSB probably comes closest to that within the UC system… and then CCS offers the research-focused approach and the small-school advantages that you are looking for. (They describe it as “grad school for undergrads.”) The Chem & Biochem majors sounds like exactly what you say you want: Chemistry & Biochemistry | UCSB College of Creative Studies The CCS app would utilize your strong teacher recommendations, and would allow you to talk about your interest in research and submit the papers you have published.