That’s not how evaluations happen though. Essays do not make up for a lower GPA at least at selective schools. High rigor can give context to a lower gpa, but essays won’t overcome a low GPA. And being in the RD round at Wisconsin makes it less likely for an admit too. How does your high school counselor see your chances there?
Madison’s acceptance rate for international students was 33% for Class of 2028, see page 3 here: Box
I agree that it’s ok to apply to some reaches, but encourage you to apply to safer choices if you want more options than UMN.