I’m never one to chance people, but I think you’ve done everything you can to let W&M know that you’re interested in attending, and I hope it works out for you. A summer interview, applying ED1 … those are clear signs of commitment, and I believe those are quite helpful at W&M. Per their 2023–2024 CDS, the acceptance rate for ED applications was 45% (664/1,460), which is a good bit higher than their RD acceptance rate of 32% (5,077/16,088). They also tend to accept men at a higher percentage rate than women (37% of men applicants vs 30% of women applicants).
Your GPA is lower than the typical student, but part of the point of holistic admissions is that they can consider the entire story, and I have to imagine that they would understand that moving to a new country would have an impact on your grade.
Again, I’m not in a position to offer chances, but I will say that it seems you’ve done what you can do, and you shouldn’t go into December anxious about whether you could have done something differently in regards to W&M. I think you absolutely have a shot. As an alum from there (from a while back), I can say that I would have loved to have someone with your background and interests on my freshman hall, and I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you that it all works out in your favor.
In terms of other schools on your list, I notice you have a lot of larger state schools, but if W&M was appealing, you might find that more mid-size schools would be appealing. Different aspects of W&M appeal to different people, but I’ve heard that people who like W&M often also like aspects of Tufts, Wake Forest, Emory, WashU, and Georgetown. Or, for schools that aren’t quite as rejective, many of the schools in this thread: “Nice person school”