Chance Me PLSSSS [US citizen living abroad, 3.83 UW, 1510 super score, Economics]

I am a US citizen but live abroad.
I live in Dubai
I go to an American school, it offers AP curriculum, offers a total of 25 AP’s.
I am a military kid, my dad retired a few years ago so I am a current dependent.

Thankfully, I do not have to worry about money, I am offered the GI-Bill which will cover half of my four-year tuition.

I applied to Northwestern majoring in Science and Human Culture, but for Economics everywhere else.

My cumulative unweighted GPA is a 3.83, in 9th grade I had a 3.8, 10th I had 3.725, and 11th I had a 4.0.
My cumulative weighted GPA is a 3.89, 9th grade I had 3.8, 10th I had 3.79, and 11th I had a 4.11.
My school doesn’t do class rank.
I have a 1510 superscore: 790 Math & 720 English

9th Grade Classes and Grades (we are not allowed to take AP’s in 9th grade)
English 9: A-
Algebra II: A-
Geometry: A
Geography: A
French 3: B+
PE: A
Concert Band: A
Biology: A-

10th grade (normally, you’re only allowed to take 1 AP, but because I was advanced at math I was allowed to take 2)
Advanced English 10: A-
Pre-Calculus: A-
AP Statistics: B- (so depressed over this) → 3 AP Score
Chemistry: A
AP World History: A → 4 AP Score
PE (semester): A
Advanced Dance (semester): A
Symphonic Band: A
French 4: A-

11th grade (I self-studied AP US Gov because it wasn’t offered in my school and got a 5)
AP English Language: A → 4 AP Score
AP Microeconomics: A → 5 AP Score
AP Calculus AB: A → 4 AP Score
International Business: A
Computer Science (semester): A
Ceramics (semester): A
Wind Ensemble: A
Introduction to Journalism: A

12th grade (these are my quarter 1 grades - all EA/ED schools are seeing)
AP English Literature: A
AP Macroeconomics: A
AP Calculus BC: A-
AP United States History: A
AP Psychology: A
Physics: A+
Wind Ensemble: A+
*My school didn’t start giving out A+'s till this year, they also do their weighted weirdly so the max you could get is a 4.25 but that’s only if you take 8 AP’s, which is every single class in your courses.
*In total I have taken/expected to take 11 AP’s

Awards
I was awarded a full-ride scholarship to a 5-week summer program: Philips Exeter Academy
AP Scholar with Distinction
High Honor Roll with Distinction (highest in the school)
National Honor Society
National Business Honor Society
Mu Alpha Theta (Math Honor Society)
Tri-M (Music Honor Society)
*There are only 5 honor societies offered at my school, so technically I am in 4/5
Second Place in National Cheer Competition
MVP in Dance
MIP (Most improved player) in Dance (2x)

Extracurriculars

  • President of largest Sustainability Club at my school for 2 years: we host huge school-wide events that host up to 2000 people, we make up to 12k AED a year (our currency)
  • Captain of the Varsity Dance Team for three years 10-12.
  • Captain of the Varsity Cheer Team for three years 10-12.
  • Philips Exeter Academy summer program
  • Freshman Mentor and admissions tour guide
  • Created a small organic hygiene business - made 2k AED
  • MUN Chair and traveling team delegate (5 years)
  • Business Development Intern at Kollegio AI
  • Summer Intern at GCC Contracting Services
  • 64+ hours of volunteering in 11th grade - 4th highest in HS
    *You are only allowed one leadership position at my school (not including captaincy though)

** Essay deleted by moderator**

Northwestern University - ED (Toss-up)
Georgetown University - RD (Lower Probability) super hard from my school
Columbia University - RD (Low Probability)
Carnegie Mellon University - RD (Lower Probability)
Northeastern University - EA (Extremely Likely) - very easy from my school
Tulane University - EA (Likely)
University of Michigan Ann Arbor - EA (Toss-up)
University of Virginia - EA (Likely, I am in-state)
UNC-Chapel Hill - EA (Lower Probability)
Boston College - RD (Toss-up)
George Washington University - RD (Assured)
George Mason University - EA (Assured, I am in-state)

*My school only allows you to apply to 12 schools maximum.

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I would say George Mason is safe. All others are reaches.

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Why would you say that? Like what could I have improved on?

How do you intend to cover the other half plus expenses, particularly since your dad is retired?

Most of the schools that you are applying to are reaches for almost everyone, or at least for pretty much all out of state students. To give a couple of examples from schools that I might have guessed were more likely than some: Someone I know got into Northeastern about 10 years ago with stats that are slightly lower than yours. However, the acceptance rate at Northeastern is now around 5.6% (this is a bit of a shock to me) which make it a reach for everyone. Boston College has an acceptance rate of around 16%. Northwestern has an average SAT for incoming students of 1530, and a 7% acceptance rate.

The large majority of applicants to all of these schools are very qualified to attend. They turn away many, many well qualified students. That is just the reality of university admissions in the US right now.

I do not fully understand how a student is in-state in Virginia while living outside the country. However, I can see that this might happen, for example if Virginia was where you used to live and if your father was stationed at a military facility in Virginia before being temporarily sent overseas to help our country. If this is the case then I will admit that I am very pleased to see that Virginia will consider you to be in-state.

You are a very academically strong and compelling candidate for admissions to these schools. You have done very well in high school and are likely to do very well wherever you end up for university. If you are considered in-state in Virginia that is likely to help your chances at UVA, which is a very good university.

Hard to know without rank. How do you fare vs others…

Stat wise you have a shot at some but must are reaches. Schools like Northeastern and Tulane are unpredictable. My son’s valedictorian was rejected at Tulane but in at Vandy, with scholarship as an example.

You have Mason.

Why is GW assured ? Have they 100% told you that you are in ? Otherwise not assured.

You might do well. You might not.

You said people from your school do well at certain schools. That tells me you have good counseling there.

Use it.

Good luck.

Just using this as an example:

If you have a big enough dataset of prior applicants to Northeastern from your school and it supports the conclusion that applicants with your numbers are very likely to be admitted to Northeastern, then that is more important information than anything the people here are likely to be able to contribute.

But please do make sure this is true for applicants with your sorts of numbers.

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You can’t improve. As many people pointed all schools on your list but George Mason are reaches to all top students. Admission at all of them is unpredictable. Nobody here knows all details and can’t compare you to all other applied students. You maybe accepted to few from your list or to none. But you have good safety-George Mason. So you are going to college 100%. Congratulations.

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Yeah, people with much lower stats than me get in. I also forgot to mention I am Legacy, my sister went to Northeastern.

Just to be clear, what you are looking for is data saying something like 18 out of 20 applicants with numbers in your range were admitted.

If 18 applicants with even lower numbers were admitted, but that was out of, say, 200 applications, that is not necessarily grounds for identifying that college as a Likely.

We don’t even have 200 students in my graduating class, only around 25-30 people apply early action, our school has a 55% acceptance rate to Northeastern.

Most likely, your son got yield protected from the schools, they don’t accept students they know will attend a better university. Additionally, my school has a 59% acceptance rate at Tulane and 55% at Northeastern.

Also, GW has a 78% acceptance rate from my school, most applicants who get in have much lower stats than I do.

Also, because I am a military kid, I am in-state in VA for tuition purposes.

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So the point I am suggesting is it would be very helpful to segment that by qualifications. Like, presumably not everyone at your secondary school has something close to a 3.83UW and also something close to a 1510 superscore. And what happens with materially dissimilar applicants is not necessarily all that useful for assessing your own individual chances.

If you don’t have much data in your own personal range you can interpolate a bit, but you have to be careful. Like you mentioned yield protection, and in some cases that can make it harder to draw a straight line through a data cloud because you could actually have more cases of rejections/waitlistings toward the very top of the range.

ALSO!!! Based off of my stats, where do you guys think I should apply to.

For the reasons we have been discussing, it is hard to know for sure where your grades would be competitive since that is typically evaluated in context.

The other thing is assuming you have properly categorized UVA and George Mason, both very good for Econ, the question is what other recommendations would realistically result in competitive offers?

But at least you could look at different colleges. And I do wonder if you have considered any smaller Liberal Arts and Sciences Colleges, aka LACs. Some can be excellent for undergrad Economics.

And some of those can be quite Reachy, like say Swarthmore or Williams. A college like Macalester, however, could be an interesting addition to your list, and it is also a very desirable LAC in general with a fantastic location in the heart of the Twin Cities (right in between the two downtowns, in fact).

If that idea sounds interesting we could give more suggestions along those lines.

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Did accepted students from your school apply ED or RD? It has HUGE difference. Northeastern loves ED. You may consider ED2 if you really want one of your schools from the list. But I am not sure how GiBill works, especially for private schools. Do you get preference or hook by UVA as military kid? Is there a place on app to show it?
All of the above may have some effect on your results.

With so much data avail, I go back to what I said earlier - talk to your school counselor.

You should familiarize yourself with how the GI Bill works. Tuition coverage differs for in state public schools, out of state public schools, and private schools. There is set number of months that can be applied to dependents so if you have any siblings that might change the equation also.

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