I went through this with my URM son in 2020, and a few students I assisted in the application process in 2021 and 2022. Here’s what I’ve gathered.
Though other factors come into play on the periphery, NC public universities by and large admit based on GPA, then Test Scores. It wasn’t crystal clear to me how admissions considers weighted versus unweighted.
UNC and NCSU: A 3.3UW will pretty much lock you out of UNC and NCSU. If something between the 3.3UW and the 3.8W is considered, you’ll have a slightly better chance.
Wilmington and Charlotte: A 3.3UW will make both of these slight reaches for you. FWIW, App State will be in the same category, though you didn’t ask about that one. You’ll help your chances by scoring closer to 1400.
ECU: This is your true safety, along with UNC-G. Your admission should be practically guaranteed. Apply EA in August and you’ll have your decision a few weeks later. It will feel good to have that acceptance and make the long wait till Jan/March for the other NC schools more bearable.
UVA: Almost no chance as an OOS applicant. I know a few recent URM admits who have gotten in with slightly better UW GPAs, but they were in-state in VA. FWIW, my son was admitted into VA Tech. If your family can’t easily afford $30K/yr, don’t bother applying to VA Tech because it will provide very little Financial Aid for OOS applicants.
Chicago and NW: As you said, both will be extreme reaches. Go ahead and apply, because there’s always that 0.005% chance they find something irresistible about your application, but assume both are NOs.
If you truly have a desire to go to OOS, you should spend a lot of time getting more informed about a wider variety of schools and destinations.
1st, cut way back on chasing the highly rejective schools highly ranked on two or three sites.
2nd, decide what’s really important to you. Small (under 3000 enrollment), Medium (3500-12000) or Large (20000+). Bustling city (NYC/DC/Boston/Chicago), regular city, suburban, college town, or rural? Will Male/Female ratio matter? How far do you really want to go - stick to the mid-atlantic, go further up to NY and MA, is the deep south ok, the midwest, the west coast? How much can your family afford to pay out of their own pocket - $1000/yr, $4000yr, $10000/yr, more? What else matters to you?
If you’re interested in looking beyond the in-state NC public school options, answer these questions and you’ll get some great suggestions here.
BTW, don’t plan to wait until you receive a decision from UNC/NCSU before applying to other non-NC options. If you’re serious about having a variety of options to choose from next April, try to apply Early Action to all the schools on your final list that offer Early Action applications.
Good luck!