<p>Is there a post that has the commended scores for the past six years or so?</p>
<p>Test year/Commended Cut</p>
<p>2003/202
2004/202
2005/203
2006/200
2007/200
2008/201
2009/201
2010/202
2011/200
2012/203
2013/201</p>
<p>The up/down/steady is a good sign for me, who on a bad day fears the scores are just going to creep up and up with each passing year, and that this year will be the highest yet. This 201 is excellent news!</p>
<p>Thanks, PAMom21!</p>
<p>does anyone have a link to former NMS scores in the past 10 years or so? </p>
<p>Is it way too simplistic statistically to look at a previous Commended Cutoff and then the National Merit Cutoff for a certain state to determine what the NM Cutoff would be this year? For example, if the Cutoff was 201 one previous year, you couldn’t just conclude that National Merit cutoff would be the same for this year, correct? You cannot believe how “on the bubble” my son is!</p>
<p>People who are really watching for NMSF cutoff scores are those who are at the border line, like my D. She did very well but a tad low for Maryland, or maybe she is right there. If she misses it, she will miss by one or two points. A month after PSAT she took the SAT and did noticeably better. (equivalent to 10 points higher.) Don’t know which is more important - PSAT or SAT. I tend to think in her case SAT is more important. but I’m not sure. </p>
<p>GMTplus 7 - I see you predict 218-219 for Texas. I came up with 215-216 based on comparing the national commended cutoff scores to the Texas NMSF scores.<br>
2014: 203…219
2013: 200…216
2012: 202…219
2011: 201…215
2010: 201…216</p>
<p>How did you get 218-219? Unless maybe my commended data is wrong?</p>
<p>Maxwell, known past years’ NMSF cut scores for all states are on the first page of this thread. A big table, and just below that the class of 2014 scores. I don’t know what your D’s score is, but MD score will surely go down this year at least 2 points to 221. Could even be 220. I looked carefully at the MD data, though I don’t know how to run these regression programs people use for better info. They come to the same conclusion I did. </p>
<p>The PSAT only really matters a lot if student may attend one of the big NMF scholarship schools. But even some high-ranked privates give $2K/yr. Vandy-$5K/yr. If you are full pay, that’s real money. If you get FA, it might get folded into your package, depends. It doesn’t seem like much on the scale of the full price of these schools. I know full pay parents whose kids get that and they sort of joke about it. But $8,000 is $8,000 after all. Then there are the one-time $2500 scholarships NMSC gives to the top NMFs. If you go to a school that gives nothing for it and you don’t get the $2500, then the PSAT means nothing. SAT is forever. </p>
<p>Does anyone know if the students score qualifies them for NMSF, what the steps are from there? I know they have to take the SAT to confirm the score. But as far as applying to NM schools and when you declare the top choice to get whatever that school offers??? This is where we are fuzzy. Is there a thread that outlines that part of it?</p>
<p>Bulbar, commended score is just another tool to put in the analysis. It is surprising that for some states the commended score correlates so directly to some exact number of points difference from their NMSF cut score over many years. I don’t think it is something one can absolutely count on for future years and it is hard to understand. It isn’t that way for every state, pretty sure. And Texas is one of the ones where it doesn’t track that closely. In 2012 the cut score was 17 points above commended, for 2011 it was 14.</p>
<p>I started looking at the Texas data for the sake of poor Barfly.</p>
<p>The thing about Texas is that where HS senior numbers are tapering off in many parts of the country, I think that is not the case for Texas, though I haven’t yet located numbers for 2013 and projections for future for just Texas. It is a growing state for sure. The numbers of NMSF in Texas should be steadily rising. It is known that from graduating class of 2012 to 2013 NMSFs jumped from 1237 to 1348, from NMSC annual report. If anyone has been keeping this sort of data, I’d love to see it. Those are the only 2 years I thought to save reports. Someone should call NMSC and ask how often they update those numbers, and do they do it in real time, or is there a lag, like looking at 2 year old graduation numbers to come up with adjustments. If Texas will get further increases of NMSFs in 2015 graduating class, then the cut score will be lower. I’m thinking 219 (maybe 218) based on the numbers of kids scoring in high score brackets and not knowing that Texas will get more NMSFs.</p>
<p>Public School Graduating Seniors, TX (from Texas Education Agency)
year graduating took PSAT as jrs
2008/ 237576/ 157871
2009/ 248500 / 167887
2010/ 264632 / 174724
2011/ 274562/ 185502
2012/ 277778/ 205659
2013/ unknown/207096
2014/ unknown/ 207068
2015/unknown / 217323</p>
<p>Notice that the numbers of kids taking PSAT doesn’t always track the graduating numbers. 2012 graduating class had 20K more sit for PSAT, but only 3,000 more graduate. </p>
<p>Then there is the puzzle of whether NMSC incorporates private/home school data.I can find it nationally in WICHE reports, but not always so easy state-by-state. Or do they take the easy way and use public school numbers? Does someone know the answer to this?</p>
<p>Anyone able to fill in 2013 graduate # or projections for 2014?</p>
<p>Edited: It takes away my spaces, didn’t think to input a table from elsewhere, sorry, put in slshes anyway.</p>
<p>wow. thanks celest. So, the more NMSF kids you have, the lower your cutoff score goes? Why is that so? Just trying to learn… </p>
<p>It’s not exactly that, but you compare number of test-takers to HS grads and number of NMSF spots. If you have fewer test-takers or more HS grads/NMSFs, or both, scores can be pushed down a bit. And vice-versa. And you have to look at what’s happening in country as a whole. If national number of HS grads going up, your state has to grow faster than that to get more NMSFs, etc. </p>
<p>In our state the number of test takers has been dropping steadily over the years though number of of HS grads is steady and NMSFs drops very slowly. Fewer test-takers usually means fewer scoring in high brackets and thus lower cut score to get the state’s # of NMSFs. But in our state enough high achieving kids know to take the test that numbers in high brackets and cut scores are stable. So I can compare pretty directly to all the previous years with no distortion or need to multiply by some growth factor.</p>
<p>For Texas now, I’m looking at number of scores in high brackets and trying to determine how that is comparable to previous years in a fast growing state. If the number of NMSFs will be the same as for the 2013 (and 2014, which is unknown to me at least) graduating classes, then I can compare directly to high scorer numbers that year. If NMSC allocates more NMSFs to 2015 class in TX, then the numbers should be more ‘forgiving’, need more high scorers for any given cut-score.</p>
<p>wrights…There is a FAQ sticky towards the top of the NM threads that may answer a lot of the questions you have. I don’t claim to know everything about the process by any stretch, but we have been through it once with D1 (Class of '11) and hope to be going through it again this fall with D2. If you’d like to PM me with any questions I’ll do my best to answer them for you. Good Luck!!</p>
<p>@isaelijohac and @luvmygirls, thank you for confirming the Commended score via your “Principal” letters from NMC. I appreciate you taking the time to post. DS is sitting here w/a 213 in KS - which is the mean score for our state as reported way up-thread - but probably too low to make NMSF this year if Commended is 201. However, I will continue to follow this thread and root for all the “bubble” students on here. I know how much it would mean to our family to have the state-flagship full-tuition/fees covered via NMS - so I bet there are other parents like me out there…and I’m wishing you all the best as you wait until September.</p>
<p>@barfly Yes, I understand if there is a scholarship at stake that it is a big deal to be a NMSF, but commended is the real joke I think. Seriously, a letter that tells you that you were “close but no cigar?” Do students even list that as an award on college applications? And just the whole concept that a kid from SD that scores several points lower than a kid from NJ is in some twisted way entitled to a full tuition scholarship while the NJ kid gets a letter? Crazy. Four years of consistent hard work that culminates in being valedictorian means little, but one test one day in a high school career can mean full tuition? NM can do as they please with their money, but when the colleges themselves offer money to students based only on that designation it seems convoluted to me. To what end? So they can brag about how many NMSF they get to attend their school?</p>
<p>@planner03, Yes they do list commended as an award. I once out of whim looked at the profiles of a couple ivy accepted kids. Many are commended. I know what you mean though. we live in MD, 10 min. drive from WV where the cutoff is more than 20 points lower. but we hold the standard with people 3 hours drive from us. Talking about crazy!</p>
<p>@planner03, while I agree that is is crazy, I don’t have a problem with it. As you say, they can “do as they please with their money”. Same goes for the colleges. They have the right to do as they please with their money, even if they just want to brag about their NMF’s. I’m fine with any college giving my kid money and then bragging that they have one more NMF! </p>
<p>BTW, the letter that goes to the high school doesn’t specify who is commended and who is NMSF at this point. It says all 50,000 are still in the running. For some states, most of those kids will make NMSF. For some states, very few will. The ones that are commended very often do list that on their college applications, and if my son doesn’t make NMSF, he will list it as well, along with his class rank, even if he’s not #1.</p>
<p>I think being valedictorian is a big deal. We don’t have that in our district as grades are not weighted, no ranking, but I understand it’s a huge honor. Aren’t there colleges that give scholarships for val?</p>
<p>People do like to have a say in how colleges spend their money, especially if the colleges are public and so state residents feel they have more of a right to give input. There is the contingent that believes there should be more merit and less FA. There are those who object to aid for URMs. There are others who think all merit should be abolished and funneled into he FA pipe-stream. Many complain about the NMF scholarships as being awarded for insubstantial achievements. If your state school gives them out, you can complain to your legislature; ask them to force the school to stop giving money for that. If the money comes from state funds at any rate. The one our state school gives is unofficial and paid from an endowment.</p>
<p>There are a couple of schools that give money to commended kids. Came across this in a thread the other day. Full ride to Wright State in OH, including book money. OOS kids have to pay the OOS part of tuition, about $8000.</p>
<p>The NMF award doesn’t mean a lot of money to most NMFs. Only half are ‘scholars’, meaning they get any kind of money, ranging from the NMSC $2500, to $2K/yr at some colleges, to free rides. The rest opt to go where there is no money. At my D’s HS, which routinely has 20-25 NMFs, only D and one other chose to go for the money. Then 4 kids got the $2500. A couple went to places that give small awards, like Chicago, but most went to schools like Swarthmore and Princeton that give $0 for the status.</p>
<p>I do feel sorry for families that are counting on it as a way to fund college and then kid ends up not making it. Especially the ones that have a bad day but ace the SAT the following week, so you know they had it in them. I imagine most of them end up getting merit somewhere for GPA/SAT/ECs. My D had large merit awards that were independent of NMF status and for which she did no special app. The problem I have with those is they are often not guaranteed, so can’t relax at all until you get something somewhere. Rutgers gave full-ride(though she would have had to pay about $10K as they don’t increase award for OOS.) That was for 4.0/35, semi-automatic. Stonybrook gave full tuition. UIUC gave $12K/yr towards OOS tuition and also she had other award there that was talent-based. UMiami(FLA) gave $25K with admission offer and invite to Stamps weekend. Others, can’t recall. I’m sure there is money out there for top kids. The point is that D was fairly high stat, but ‘eh’ ECs, and still got money. If your kid is high stat you definitely can get money if you target the right schools. There’s always Alabama, right? NMFs get more, but they have great scholarship for stats.</p>
<p>Yes, many students do (and should) list NM Commended as an academic achievement. Since when is being in the top 3.3% of ANYTHING not considered an accomplishment worth noting?? If recognizing kids for doing something academic rather than how well they can throw, catch, or dribble a ball is crazy…put me on the crazy list!! 8-} </p>
<p>If the logic is that scoring well on one test doesn’t warrant recognition, then why bother congratulating anyone who scores well on any standardized test? After all, it’s only performing well on one test…right?</p>
<p>High achievement on any standardized test is not a fluke…it’s the product of effort that has been put in over many years leading up to that test. Not performing well on a particular test/day is certainly NOT an indication of anything, but bagging on kids who do perform well isn’t warranted either IMO.</p>
<p>Most applications for college are submitted before the end of the calendar year, right? So how does a student know then that he is valedictorian? Are scholarships given based on class rank after junior year?</p>