<p>I’ve read through all of this thread and there seems to be a strong general agreement that cut offs will not go up but our HS principal says differently. Now before you all go trashing this gentleman like some the guidance counselors/principals I’ve seen some of you dealing with, I will say this is a private school where we had 14 NMSF last year out of roughly 110 graduates, and it looks like that about each year. This guy has done his homework, has a list of who he thinks will be in and who will be out. And he predicts only 8-9 NMSF this year which would be a really low year. His whole analysis is based on where the scores sit in the national percentiles. He believes that the cut off score in TN (our state) almost always falls at the bottom of the 99th percentile nationally. So, here is the question - does anyone agree with this? Is it possible he already knows the answer because his typed up list of SF and Commended looked awfully certain. Does anyone have the national percentiles for qualifying scores from the last few years so I can check this theory? My S scored 214 and while TN has not had a cut off at 215 or higher in years, 214 was the last score in the 98th national percentile for the Class of 2014. Thoughts? </p>
<p>The Principal does not know yet. I am the Superintendent of the school district where my son goes. We were waiting last year like you guys are this year. The school got the semi-finalist list exactly at the time NM had said they would release it. Personally I do not think we will have two years in a row of big jumps. Small jumps maybe but big ones are doubtful. Of course states with few PSAT takers like Alaska can be kinda statistically volitile. Here in Texas where a ton of kids take the test we dont see that big of jumps. My son had a 230 so we were not really sweating it but I am a worry kind of parent so I followed it closely</p>
<p>mmfrymire, it is possible that TN could go up, though I haven’t looked at the data. But they are a state that had one of the more modest increases last yr(+2) and still are 5 pts. below their historic high. Any individual state’s cutoff may rise, but it isn’t likely that we’ll see large increases in almost all states again this year.</p>
<p>However, if your cutoff score does rise, that in and of itself should not affect the number of NMSFs at your school. Now if NMSC had just cut the number of NMSFs that your state is entitled to because your state is losing share of USA HS seniors, that could have some small effect on your school. But looking at the last 2 NMSC annual reports, from graduating class of 2012 to 2013, TN increased its number of NMSFs from 287 to 322. Could it be that for some reason the number would go back down 2 years later? But anyway the fluctuation in cutoffs does not affect a school. Since they take the approximately the same number of NMSFs from your state every year, a higher cutoff usually means that the best students got higher scores. If your principal has his numbers right (by whatever means he uses to analyze the data), then maybe your school is experiencing a random fluctuation in the number of top students it has this year. Or it could happen that there is a rise in number of test-takers in your state because some schools have just decided to administer PSAT to all juniors. That can affect things because more top students will end up getting tested and so more kids are competing for those spots. But I just checked the report for TN this year and the number of test-takers in your state declined by over 5% from the previous year, so nothing like that going on. Maybe something else I haven’t considered??</p>
<p>Thank you celesteroberts. I think my statement of our principal’s methodology yielding only 8-9 NMSF was more my way of hoping he is wrong about the TN cut off and that they are fairly experienced with this stuff I did find the 2012 and 2011 percentile rankings and it showed that for 2012 test takers the TN cut off was 212 which was the second lowest 99th percentile score but for 2011 test takers the TN cut off was 210 which was the highest 98th percentile score. All that told me is we will have to wait and see!</p>
<p>This whole thing is just confusing. I’ll be glad when they finally just come out with the numbers and the waiting will be over. But then that will mean that school will have started and I’m not at all ready for summer to be over. :(</p>
<p>Don’t forget that this particular principal has access to his class’ scores. So maybe for some reason, there are just less kids in his school at higher numbers? I do think there is merit to predicting a state based on national percentiles. For example, PA has consistently been a set number of points from the commended cut, which is based on national percentiles. However, that score went down this year (203 to 201), so I predict PA will also drop a point or two. I haven’t looked terribly closely at any state other than PA though.</p>
<p>And looking just very briefly at TN’s scores in the last 10 years, it might be one of the few that does go up, as it’s considerably lower than it’s high scores. Both the 210 from 2013 and last year’s 212 are low for TN’s history. Many other states, including PA, had record highs for 2014.</p>
<p>PAMom 21 I think you are right sadly. I did find the percentile ranges in another thread on CC and found that in every one of the last seven years (except one) the TN cut off was either the first or second score in the national 99th percentile. That would predict TN goes up to 215 or even 216 this year. The only year the last 98th percentile score was the cut off was two years ago when it was 210. A little discouraging from a potential scholarship standpoint as one of his top choices is a school that offers NMF a full ride but with a 1510 M/R SAT I think my son will still get into one of his top choice schools. </p>
<p>What are the odds of receiving Semifinalist with a 221 in NJ? </p>
<p>I’m thinking quite low, but I’d like other feedback.</p>
<p>Hang in there @mmfrymire, it’s not over yet. If 214 was the last score in the 98th LAST year, chances are that same score could be above the 99th this year. He’s definitely close. </p>
<p>NJ is a little tighter with last year’s cut at 224, but the previous year was only 221, so it’s still possible. Only one more month to wait!</p>
<p>chance of receiving some commendation for 203? ik last year if you were above 200 u got it</p>
<p>I am going to be SO glad when they finally announce this. My goodness. What a long drawn out process.</p>
<p>@fnl012, I believe that the cutoff for commended will be 201 this year (based on letters that home school parents shared in May), so a 203 should get you a commended letter come September.</p>
<p>Just for the record though, last year’s commendation cut was not 200, but rather 203. This year should be 201, if the letters do indeed reflect that level as they have in the past.</p>
<p>FYI, cut & paste from my post #552 in this thread:</p>
<p>Here is my crystal ball prediction of Semi-Finalist cutoffs for each state, based on an individual analysis of each state’s data. We’ll see in September whether my predictive skills merit derision or worship…</p>
<p>Columns are:
- Class of 2008
- Class of 2009
- Class of 2010
- Class of 2011
- Class of 2012
- Class of 2013
- Class of 2014
- Class of 2015 prediction w +/- uncertainty
- State/region</p>
<p>In between the columns, I have flagged whether the cutoff went up, down, or was flat in the subsequent year. For the Class of 2015 I expect the cutoffs will be flat-to-lower than last year’s, overall.</p>
<p>Note that for states with an asterisk (e.g., Rhode Island), there was a lot of scatter in the data; therefore, therefore the uncertainty is +/- 2, instead of +/-1.</p>
<p><em>'08 | _</em>'09 | <em>__'10 | _</em><em>'11 | _</em><em>'12 | _</em><em>'13 | _</em><em>'14 | </em>'15 prediction
223 | - | 221 | 0 | 221 | + | 223 | 0 | 223 | - | 221 | + | 224 | - | 223 +/- 1 | International
223 | - | 221 | 0 | 221 | + | 223 | 0 | 223 | - | 221 | + | 224 | - | 223 +/- 1 | DistrictofColumbia
209 | 0 | 209 | - | 208 | + | 210 | + | 211 | - | 209 | + | 211 | - | 210 +/- 1 | Alabama
213 | - | 212 | - | 211 | + | 214 | - | 212 | - | 204 | + | 212 | 0 | 212 +/- 1 | Alaska
211 | - | 209 | + | 210 | - | 209 | + | 213 | - | 212 | + | 214 | - | 213 +/- 1 | Arizona
201 | + | 204 | - | 203 | 0 | 203 | + | 205 | - | 202 | + | 205 | 0 | 205 +/- 1 | Arkansas
218 | - | 217 | + | 218 | + | 219 | + | 221 | - | 220 | + | 223 | 0 | 223 +/- 1 | California
213 | 0 | 213 | 0 | 213 | - | 212 | + | 215 | - | 212 | + | 215 | - | 214 +/- 1 | Colorado
217 | + | 218 | 0 | 218 | + | 219 | + | 220 | - | 218 | + | 221 | 0 | 221 +/- 1 | Connecticut
219 | 0 | 219 | 0 | 219 | - | 215 | + | 217 | - | 215 | + | 218 | 0 | 218 +/- 1 | Delaware
212 | - | 211 | 0 | 211 | - | 210 | + | 214 | - | 211 | + | 214 | - | 213 +/- 1 | Florida
214 | + | 215 | - | 214 | + | 215 | + | 218 | - | 214 | + | 217 | 0 | 217 +/- 1 | Georgia
213 | + | 216 | - | 214 | + | 215 | + | 216 | - | 211 | + | 215 | - | 214 +/- 1 | Hawaii
204 | + | 208 | + | 209 | - | 208 | + | 211 | - | 207 | + | 211 | 0 | 211 +/- 1 | Idaho
213 | + | 214 | 0 | 214 | 0 | 214 | + | 216 | - | 213 | + | 216 | - | 215 +/- 1 | Illinois
213 | 0 | 213 | - | 211 | + | 212 | + | 214 | - | 211 | + | 215 | - | 214 +/- 1 | Indiana
209 | + | 210 | - | 209 | 0 | 209 | + | 210 | - | 207 | + | 210 | - | 209 +/- 1 | Iowa
212 | - | 211 | 0 | 211 | 0 | 211 | + | 214 | - | 212 | + | 216 | - | 215 +/- 1 | Kansas
208 | + | 209 | 0 | 209 | - | 208 | + | 212 | - | 208 | + | 211 | 0 | 211 +/- 1 | Kentucky
206 | + | 208 | - | 207 | + | 210 | - | 209 | 0 | 209 | 0 | 209 | 0 | 209 +/- 1 | Louisiana
211 | + | 212 | + | 213 | 0 | 213 | - | 212 | - | 210 | + | 215 | - | 213 +/- 2 | Maine*
221 | - | 220 | + | 221 | - | 220 | + | 221 | - | 219 | + | 223 | - | 221 +/- 1 | Maryland
223 | - | 221 | 0 | 221 | + | 223 | 0 | 223 | - | 221 | + | 224 | - | 223 +/- 1 | Massachusetts
209 | 0 | 209 | 0 | 209 | 0 | 209 | + | 210 | - | 207 | + | 210 | - | 209 +/- 1 | Michigan
213 | + | 214 | + | 215 | - | 213 | + | 215 | - | 213 | + | 215 | 0 | 215 +/- 1 | Minnesota
202 | - | 201 | + | 203 | + | 205 | 0 | 205 | - | 204 | + | 207 | 0 | 207 +/- 1 | Mississippi
211 | + | 213 | - | 211 | - | 210 | + | 213 | - | 210 | + | 213 | - | 212 +/- 1 | Missouri
207 | + | 208 | - | 204 | + | 208 | + | 209 | - | 203 | + | 207 | - | 206 +/- 2 | Montana*</p>
<p><em>'08 | _</em>'09 | <em>__'10 | _</em><em>'11 | _</em><em>'12 | _</em><em>'13 | _</em><em>'14 | </em>'15 prediction
207 | - | 206 | + | 207 | + | 210 | - | 209 | - | 207 | + | 209 | 0 | 209 +/- 1 | Nebraska
208 | - | 206 | - | 202 | + | 208 | + | 209 | - | 208 | + | 212 | - | 211 +/- 1 | Nevada
219 | - | 216 | + | 218 | - | 217 | + | 219 | - | 215 | + | 219 | - | 218 +/- 1 | New York
215 | - | 211 | + | 213 | + | 214 | + | 216 | - | 211 | + | 214 | 0 | 214 +/- 2 | NewHampshire*
221 | - | 220 | + | 221 | 0 | 221 | + | 223 | - | 221 | + | 224 | - | 223 +/- 1 | NewJersey
208 | + | 209 | - | 208 | - | 206 | + | 210 | - | 208 | + | 210 | - | 209 +/- 1 | NewMexico
214 | + | 215 | - | 214 | 0 | 214 | + | 217 | - | 213 | + | 215 | 0 | 215 +/- 1 | NorthCarolina
202 | - | 201 | + | 202 | 0 | 202 | + | 204 | - | 200 | + | 204 | - | 203 +/- 1 | NorthDakota
211 | + | 213 | - | 211 | + | 212 | + | 214 | - | 212 | + | 215 | - | 214 +/- 1 | Ohio
207 | + | 208 | - | 207 | - | 206 | + | 209 | - | 206 | + | 210 | - | 209 +/- 1 | Oklahoma
213 | 0 | 213 | 0 | 213 | + | 215 | + | 216 | - | 213 | + | 218 | - | 217 +/- 1 | Oregon
214 | - | 213 | + | 214 | + | 216 | - | 215 | - | 214 | + | 217 | - | 216 +/- 1 | Pennsylvania
212 | + | 213 | + | 217 | - | 211 | + | 213 | - | 211 | + | 216 | - | 214 +/- 2 | RhodeIsland*
210 | + | 212 | - | 211 | - | 208 | + | 211 | - | 208 | + | 210 | 0 | 210 +/- 1 | SouthCarolina
203 | + | 205 | 0 | 205 | 0 | 205 | + | 206 | - | 204 | + | 206 | 0 | 206 +/- 1 | SouthDakota
213 | 0 | 213 | 0 | 213 | - | 212 | + | 214 | - | 210 | + | 212 | 0 | 212 +/- 2 | Tennessee*
215 | 0 | 215 | + | 216 | - | 215 | + | 219 | - | 216 | + | 219 | 0 | 219 +/- 1 | Texas
202 | + | 203 | + | 206 | - | 203 | + | 208 | - | 205 | + | 208 | 0 | 208 +/- 1 | Utah
216 | - | 213 | 0 | 213 | - | 212 | + | 217 | - | 214 | + | 217 | - | 216 +/- 1 | Vermont
217 | + | 219 | - | 218 | 0 | 218 | + | 220 | - | 217 | + | 222 | - | 221 +/- 1 | Virginia
215 | + | 217 | 0 | 217 | + | 218 | + | 220 | - | 216 | + | 220 | - | 219 +/- 1 | Washington
200 | + | 203 | 0 | 203 | - | 202 | + | 204 | - | 200 | + | 203 | 0 | 203 +/- 1 | WestVirginia
208 | + | 210 | - | 207 | + | 209 | 0 | 209 | - | 207 | + | 210 | - | 209 +/- 1 | Wisconsin
200 | + | 201 | 0 | 201 | + | 202 | + | 204 | - | 200 | + | 203 | 0 | 203 +/- 1 | Wyoming</p>
<p>How can you find the state report for the percentiles on the PSAT? Are the 2013 available? I am specifically looking for Florida. Thanks!</p>
<p>@saismom - this what you looking for?</p>
<p><a href=“SAT Suite of Assessments – Reports | College Board”>http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr</a></p>
<p>Yes, I saw this but I assume they do not release the total PSAT score percentiles? </p>
<p>I believe the totals only come out nationally, and they are not yet available for 2013. I’ve personally played around with the PA data, comparing each year’s cut to that year’s national percentiles, and with a big state like PA, there are basic patterns. With smaller states it’s probably best to focus on the individual subject totals, although no method is without fault.</p>