<p>So @GMTplus7, if you applied your in depth prediction methods and tried to predict 2014 (assuming you did not have the answer) how good were you? Just curious!</p>
<p>@PAmom21 you made a great point. All this time I thought the percentiles on the score report were for this year’s scores. If the cut off was 212 last year in TN, then 212 was a score 3 down in the 98th percentile (meaning 98th last year started with 214 and went down). If the mean for the state went up two points from last year, then there is some hope. Our HS principal seems convinced he won’t make it and that the cut off will go up 3 points. I’ll just hope he’s close to wrong and it only goes up 2! Thank you!</p>
<p>The scores are a bit of a mess. Just a few years back, you got your own kid’s report, along with a current sampling of national scores, from the test your kid took. Predictions had to have been easier then! But if you look at the page titled “Selection Index Percentiles and Mean Score” from the short annual write up, it now shows “Percentiles are based on the Selection Index earned by a college-bound juniors who took the PSAT in the previous year.”</p>
<p>This change first happened with the 2012 (class of 2014) , so it’s fairly recent. Make sure you take note of this if you are dissecting scores historically. Roughly the same data showed up in two consecutive reports (2011 as a sample, and 2012 as “old” data). Beginning last year, making predictions became a little more conjecture.</p>
<p>The STATE reports though have always reflected the correct year’s actual state numbers. So at least we have something to play with while we wait. The commendation cut (201) though is considerably helpful, because it’s our first national number for the 2013 (class of 2015) data point.</p>
<p>And @mmfrymire, what works in your favor is that scores overall have trended down. First there is the commendation cut of 201, down from 203. I just looked at the last two state reports for TN, and they look similar to other states, albeit with smaller numbers than PA. Small states tend to have more fluctuation. But looking at the numbers, both CR and Writing trended down, meaning less students scored in the top levels (70+) in those subjects. For math, there are more, which caught many of us by surprise. as the national mean stayed the same. This was true in most states. The net numbers still trend down though, and along with the 201, this still suggests many states will actually drop. States with smaller participation though can be more quirky.</p>
<p>What’s working against you is the historic numbers for TN, which have several 216/217 cuts in the somewhat recent past. However, the past 7 years have all been 214 or less. </p>
<p>I think your odds are decent, but it’s always best not to get too hopeful in a close situation. The wait isn’t much longer!</p>
<p>From @mmfrymire : “I did find the 2012 and 2011 percentile rankings and it showed that for 2012 test takers the TN cut off was 212 which was the second lowest 99th percentile score but for 2011 test takers the TN cut off was 210 which was the highest 98th percentile score.”</p>
<p>Okay, based on the reporting change, I believe you are wrong about 2012. For 2011, the 210 cut was indeed the last number in the 98th percentile. However, for 2012, thanks to the change, you have to look at the scores in the next year’s report, and there the 212 score lands in the middle of the 98th (top score 214).</p>
<p>And we don’t currently have these scores for our kids, which makes life difficult. (Clear as mud yet?)</p>
<p>@brawny77, my concern with Texas is the huge jump in test-takers - up 10,000! That resulted in record numbers of students in the top scoring category in math. Do you have any insight? Do you get the Texas cutoffs when your principals get them? I hope you will post Texas cutoffs as soon as you get them! My son is on the bubble with a 219!</p>
<p>Our school usually has 4 NMSFs. This year we have a big senior class (800+) but my son only knows of 1 score above his 219. Of course, out of 800 kids, there could be one of those closet geniuses who surprises the other kids as well as the teachers with a 240 PSAT score, right? </p>
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<p>I didn’t predict 2014 grads because the issue wasn’t on my radar until DS took the PSAT last year as junior. My projections are based solely on the data for the preceding graduating classes of 2008-2014, which I showed in posts #974 & #975. If you plot the preceding years data and do your own guess, your projection would be as accurate as mine. 
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<p>@PAmom21 thanks for your insights. When I adjust the percentiles for the change in reporting in 2012, I find an interesting trend in TN scores and where the cut off falls in the percentiles over time. It has declined steadily over the last 9 years (see below). </p>
<p>Test
Year Cut Off Percentile
2004 216 3rd 99th score (meaning up two from the lowest score marked as 99th percentile)
2005 217 3rd 99th score
2006 213 2nd 99th score
2007 213 2nd 99th score
2008 213 2nd 99th score
2009 212 lowest 99th score (meaning the lowest score marked as 99th percentile)
2010 213 lowest 99th score
2011 210 highest 98th percentile score
2012 212 third 98th percentile score (meaning down 2 from the top 98th score)</p>
<p>This sequential decline over time is fascinating and an interesting statement about scores in TN overall but not much more than that. Just some fun with data, in the end only the final results will matter! </p>
<p>@PAMom21 - I’m having surgery at the end of August and will most likely not be thinking of this issue, but will want to know, even though I will be otherwise mentally/physically occupied. Would you do me the favor of PM’ing me when you start hearing data? That will remind me to start looking at this thread again. Thank you.</p>
<p>Sure thing @numbersfun! Best wishes for your surgery. I hope it’s nothing serious.</p>
<p>When should we know the cutoffs? Also, is there any hope that the 212 score in TN would stay the same for the cutoff?</p>
<p>mmfrymire, I’ve been looking at TN a bit more . Some posts back I mentioned that from 2012 to 2013 the # of TN NMSFs jumped from 287 to 322. Now I found a copy of 2010 NMSC annual report on scribd and that year TN had 272. Don’t have more data points, but am extrapolating that this may be a longer term trend of gaining in NMSF allocation. Anyone know how many they had in 2005 or around then?</p>
<p>For many years TN has had around 15,0000+ juniors taking the test, though occasionally there is a blip year up or down a thousand . But overall pretty steady in # of test-takers. That’s currently about 25% of their juniors, a fairly low number. </p>
<p>From what I gather, TN is holding it’s own in US population, about 2% of total. </p>
<p>So what has changed? TN has made enormous progress in increasing their high school graduation rate over the years, increasing it at double the US average rate of gain. This is what is driving TN’s gain in NMSF allocation. </p>
<p>Since this gain hasn’t translated into more students taking the test, this puts downward pressure on TN cut score over time. Same # taking test, but need to fill more NMSF slots. This fits exactly with your observations about decline of TN cut score’s level in national percentiles.</p>
<p>Absent more info, my guess is that if scores do go up in TN, it won’t be by more than a point or 2. But I haven’t crunched the numbers from TN reports yet. </p>
<p>@celesteroberts - Thanks for the observations. It does explain the trend. As with many parents, I am waiting patiently for the final results. I hope that the many predicters on CC are right about the cut offs!</p>
<p>@mombga - If you read through the last few pages, you’ll see some back and forth on the TN cut offs. I’ve been wondering the same thing myself. I think there is a chance the score goes up in TN this year but you are right on the bubble at 212! The waiting will be over soon thankfully! Hope your S or D gets in where they want to go ultimately!</p>
<p>I was bored, and went digging a bit on the 2014 NMS thread. For what it’s worth, NMS claimed to send out notifications last year on 8/27, and the first documented receipt on this site was 8/31. So much for hoping for August.</p>
<p>School starts for us on the 25th, so at least they’ll be in session when the letter arrives. I hate to wish my summer away, but I’m getting a little stir crazy here in the home stretch.</p>
<p>@PAMom21, Thank you. New hip! Looking forward to getting rid of the original equipment.</p>
<p>@numbersfun, Good luck with your surgery. I had a new hip done in 2011 and am able to do the activities I had to give up again. I am very happy.</p>
<p>I am mostly a lurker here but also wanted to say good luck to you, @numbersfun!</p>
<p>Thank you, all! </p>
<p>Yes @numbersfun best wishes for a speedy recovery!</p>