<p>@downhillskater91
I’m hoping that’s the case… I still can’t believe that missing only two questions in writing would result in a 720. </p>
<p>Thank you! Honestly, the support from CC has really kept me going these last few days as I wait in anticipation for those letters! </p>
<p>The near perfection curves in writing and math were painful, but fortunately only the writing one impacted us. But yes, one more question in writing and we would have been sitting in the sure thing zone.</p>
<p>Your scores overall are great @onlythebest13, and I’m sure you have other feathers in your cap. I do think your chances are pretty good though, so hang in there with us for just a few more.</p>
<p>@STEMFamily, thanks for stepping up. My available hours aren’t consistent enough this time of year. It’s scary seeing that first post ready and waiting! Here we go!</p>
<p>mindfully, in the most recent NMSC annual report CA had 1920 NMSFs. That might go up or down. But the actual method NMSC uses to determine how many your state gets is what percentage of graduating seniors your state has compared to the US as a whole. For CA your method gets a pretty close approximation, but that won’t work for every state, especially those that have low participation rates in PSAT. You do have a very good chance. Take a deep breath. You’ll know soon.</p>
<p>The quota is allocated to the state based on graduating seniors whether 5% take PSAT or 100% do.</p>
<p>Do we know what reference the NMSC uses to determine the number of graduating seniors? “Number of high school graduates by state” would seem to be one of those queries WolframAlpha would just spit out. But no. It tells you about the Dustin Hoffman movie ;). Then a trip to DOE “Data Inventory” looks promising - if you have a few hours to sift, so the question from this latecomer to the party is has anyone identified this data source? </p>
<p>I’m like Barfly: not talking about this to my daughter who is on the bubble in Texas. I’m not sure if she is anxiously awaiting the results or not. We have hired a college consultant to help her with her applications, essays, etc. and she has told my daughter that NM is not as influential as it used to be. I think she is partly saying that to take the pressure off. Yes, we will be dissappointed if she doesn’t get it because she worked really hard to get her score. However, she will get commended status and has other things on her college resume that make her shine. So, here’s hoping for the best for all of you and a reminder that you (or your children) are special no matter what the outcome. Just by being on the site you have shown that you care which is more important than the results (in my opinion).</p>
<p>Just being nosy but would like to share my D13’s story. We were totally in your shoes 2 years ago. She ended up missing the mark by 1 point! After her first semester of college she told me that she was glad she didn’t make NMSF because she would not have ended up at the school that she is currently studying. She would have felt that she “had” to go to a school with a NMSF scholarship. She loves the school she chose and is attending with a very nice scholarship - even with only being “commended”. Her SAT score that she took about a month later would have easily put her in the range. My point - it will all work out!!!</p>
<p>Yes, back to the old saying, Life is a series of events that seem important at the time. :)</p>
<p>Anyone else following this thread that doesn’t even have kid in the class of 2015?!</p>
<p>I’m afraid I may need an intervention for my CC addiction soon!</p>
<p>@ahsmuoh do you know of any scholarships that are based on the SAT score itself rather than the PSAT? I’m so glad that everything worked out for your daughter 
</p>
<p>@onlythebest13, look at those same numbers for the prior year (2012 PSAT) and you will see that those numbers were 2628 in CR, 3800 in Math, and 3174 in Writing. So California looks a lot like most states this time with high math scores. But the other scores are down! </p>
<p>I don’t know what all this means for the state cutoffs. Does it mean that students who are not as strong in Math will this time have a better chance of a high math score, thereby raising the cutoff? Or will the strong Math students have a lesser chance of a high score in CR and Writing, thereby lowering the cutoff? Or will the 2 balance out? My brain cannot figure this out but I keep trying to predict the cutoffs anyway! </p>
<p>The lower Commended cutoff has got to be good news, though, for most states, right?</p>
<p>@onlythebest13 re: scholarships based on SAT score - Many public universities have great scholarships that are ACT or SAT based, assuming your child has the requisite GPA required (often an unweighted 3.5). Check out Auburn and Alabama as examples. My oldest is a senior at Auburn this year and has attended tuition free as an out of state student for four years under a program like this - that’s $100,000 we saved and he was no where near being a NMSF. Some schools are more specific on how it works than others (Auburn’s is very mathematical, others are more vague) but you can get a top notch education at a great price if you really do your homework. Best of luck! </p>
<p>Time to lighten this thread up with my favorite NMSF story! My oldest, HS class of 2010, and I went to a college fair for our school district. He had just learned that he made the NMSF cut, and was pretty excited. He walked up to the UC Berkeley table and asked if they had any special scholarships for NMFs, and the woman replied in a perfect Mrs. Thurston Howell III voice that they did not give any scholarships for NMFs because “We just have SO many National Merit Scholars”. We still laugh about that - it surely put it in perspective. </p>
<p>It is a stressful time for those on the bubble, and I know it will be tough if my son misses the cutoff by just a point or 2, but it will be fine. He has handled other disappointments in his 17 years, and it will be a great story someday when he’s the U.S. President, a CEO, or a famous inventor. Or a dad with a kid facing disappointment.</p>
<p>Good Luck to all!</p>
<p>Sitting here on the bubble in Kansas. DS will probably miss by a point but I’m still so proud of him. Stopped by to wish all your DCs the best of luck and I am cheering you on!</p>
<p>28 new posts since yesterday and still no news!?!?</p>
<p>Well, I guess we are a day closer.</p>
<p>@GoAskDad - I am pulling for your son! Hope he makes the cut. </p>
<p>Me too. Wishing on that star for a 213 cut in Kansas.</p>
<p>Am I the only parent who has checked this site 100 times in the last 3 days? Surely some home schooler somewhere has gotten something! I am wishing for all cut offs to go down 2 points to make all the bubble parents on here like me giddy!</p>
<p>Deleted :)</p>
<p>Ooooh, posts like that probably aren’t good. I just checked in and was surprised that CA had just heard first, LOL! I do see “wish list”, but if others start chiming in, it could get crazy. It’s too late I think for wish lists. Now…where is the actual data? One person heard last year on Friday. Just one, but it keeps me coming back. </p>