Regarding rugged country and the ability to hide, that’s all true, but the 2 of them also are not experienced outdoorsmen or survivalists.
I wonder about the wisdom of assuming the 2 are in the area, and assuming that law enforcement would know about any cars in use. It doesn’t have to be a carjacking or a burglary/grand theft. It can be that they made a contact who willingly (or in fear!) gave one/both of them a car and has since lied to police about “no one having been contacted by them.” All we know is what those contacts are disclosing. Maybe they’re loyal, or maybe they’re afraid to say.
I doubt the woman currently under arrest was their only ally.
I agree @VeryHappy, these guys are creeps but sound like good planners and intelligent. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had others lined up to help rather leaving themselves with only one option. And if they are smart, they have split up.
Any idea why the police focus is on the immediate area? I realize it’s a wooded area with lots of vacation cabins where it wouldn’t be hard for them to find one not in use, break in, and live in it for a while. But they were planners, they probably realized that the police search would go house to house and thru the woods with dogs and their scent would be found. How much access do you have to news media in a state max prison? I wonder if they followed that Eric Fein guy in Pa. a few months ago – the survivalist who was able to hide out in the woods for a long time but was caught; if they did they probably realized they don’t have those kinds of survival skills.
I have a feeling there was a getaway car waiting for them some place walkable to the prison (even if there was no driver) and they escaped the prison, jumped in the car, and just drove so that by the time the search got going, they were in the Midwest and now – having some idea of the coverage – they’re in the south or southwest possibly in some big city where they could go unrecognized or have crossed the Mexican border since there are places you can cross without going through a check point.
The female prison guard was to have been their getaway driver, and she didn’t show up. Tracker dogs have found their scent in the woods near the prison. My money says they’re still in the area.
At a news conference yesterday, Cuomo mentioned that they could be in Mexico by now and also that they looked in Vermont, too following a lead.
I fear they may have carjacked some unlucky individual, stolen his money and his car, killed him, left the body in a remote area where it won’t be found for a long time and they could now be anywhere. Depending on the circumstances, that person’s family may not have any reason to report him as missing yet.
The female corrections officer who ultimately didn’t drive the getaway car probably saved her life. I’m sure they would have killed her at some point.
VH - It’s been reported that the female who aided in the escape was a training supervisor in the tailor block (her responsibilities include helping inmates learn how to tailor clothing), not a prison guard or a corrections officer.
@epiphany
Completely agree with you on all points. Yes, all of the NYS unions for corrections jobs etc are extremely strong. It takes a lot to get fired from a State job. Hate to say it but the process of taking one of the tests for NYS corrections is not very difficult, the initial tests at least (from what I have heard) are akin to what one takes to become a cashier at Walmart. Early retirement ages and excellent benefits ensure there is a constant demand for corrections officers.
I am in the banking profession and we are subject to both internal and federal procedural audits on a yearly basis. Security lapses like this are not a one time slip up but moreover many slip ups. We cannot assume that all of the people in charge were corrupt but most were extremely lax in their jobs. Are prisons not subject to the same sort of audit process that banks are? If they are not I truly believe they should be.
Very Happy, you’re probably right that the convicts would have killed her after the pick-up. She may have ultimately realized this, became stressed out over her conflicted emotions, and thus checked herself into the hospital. Also, these guys likely realize that their best chance is to split up, if one hasn’t already “disposed of” the other.
I
I’m not sure how much control they had over when their chance was going to be there…but June is a lot better than December, January, February or March. Currently you don’t freeze to death, your footprints don’t stand out as much, and there are leaves on the trees to give you some cover from time to time.
If you put yourself in their shoes, you’ll quickly conclude that you desperately need a vehicle, and you desperately need food. I think the idea that they’ve stolen a car and aren’t detected yet seems unlikely. For someone unfamiliar with an area, locating a vehicle to steal that wouldn’t be detected within 24 hours would be difficult. Its possible you could find someone living remotely with few contacts and do away with them and steal their car, but the chances of picking someone with infrequent interaction with others is low.
Having some cash would help, but whether they had any would be an open question. Fake IDs would be useful too, The woman in custody is probably the best source of information about what they might have or not.
Regarding post 43:
Because the dog picked up 2 local scents: a grassy area where they seemed to have recently bedded down (last week), and a gas station where police think they were finding food in a dumpster (a few days ago). However, since then they could have located a car not yet reported as stolen (for example, one on the property of a currently vacant summer cabin), and in that case locating them will be much harder.
I’m not so confident, however, that they can remain undetected for too long, wherever they go. In the U.S., people need money to survive, cash. I doubt they’re going to look for a job,and if they just rob people serially, and even kill each victim as they rob them, at least one surviving relative of such victims is going to report the disappearance, fast. In order to continue to be undetected for a long period, both would have to get extremely lucky: all opportunities to obtain cash would have to be on people with no surviving friends or relatives; all cars obtained would have to be abandoned. And they can’t just shoot their way indefinitely from one episode to another without drawing the attention of law enforcement somewhere. Even in the film, The Fugitive, starring Harrison Ford, the guy has to find somewhere to live, so he rents a basement apartment to hide out, but it turns out the landlady’s son is arrested for something and I.D.'s Ford. That’s realistic only in the sense that life does not consist of simply no interconnections anywhere. You have to eat; you have to have shelter, to have to buy clothes or keep washing yours, you have to buy ammunition for guns, and you have to continue to find sources for cash. To do all that undetected by anyone, unsuspected by anyone, you’d have to have an indefinite series of lucky breaks.
Last year there was a fugitive in the Big Bear, California area who had killed several people including a police officer. The Big Bear area was swarming with police and media. The fugitive turned out to have broken into a house, captured the occupants and stayed there for several days. It was across the street from the staging area for the police manhunt.
Sure ^. Not saying that the 2 cannot do a great deal of harm in a short period of time, and remain in control for a time, but as we see, not indefinitely. I think in this case, in addition to the scent picked up locally twice, the 2 may be in shelter (cabin, whatever). Maybe they have 2 hostages there, and one hostage is being ordered to go purchase items & obtain cash for them while the other hostage is being held under threat of death. Even in summer, shelter is important and certainly a natural drive for a human. Running water, a shower for heaven’s sake. I said earlier: these are not outdoorsmen; it doesn’t matter that it’s summer; it gets very annoying very quickly to live outside for any long period of time. You could also temporarily live in a car, but this is why homeless people, many of whom live in their cars, have to go find showers somewhere.
Somehow I don’t think a man who murdered his boss and chopped him up into little pieces is overly worried about showering.
But yes, they could be holed up in a cabin with hostages like the killer in Big Bear.
I wonder if police can search the unoccupied cabins without a warrant if searching for these escapees? Exigient circumstances? Don’t know.
He wouldn’t be “worried” about it, but it just gets very, very uncomfortable sooner than us city folk may realize. Living with no indoor plumbing is a nuisance, that’s all. Shelter is the way to go if you don’t want to spend most of your time being inconvenienced. You can put up with that for a short time, but it’s not a permanent lifestyle.
They’ve been searching the unoccupied cabins – at least according to the news channels I was watching. I have to wonder if some of you are actually following this case. I was glued to the TV all last week.
http://www.syracuse.com/crime/index.ssf/2015/06/prison_escape_seen_cadyville_ny_dannemora.html
(This was published 3 days ago.)
Does anyone know where “7 hours from Dannemora NY” could be? I guess Canada would be one possibility, but where in the States?
While I think it’s probable they are still in the area, five hours elapsed from the breakout until their escape was discovered. Plus, my understanding is that they had at least one cell phone. It’s possible that there are people on the outside who would be willing to help them.
It’s upsetting to read that the different law enforcement agencies involved in this are fighting among themselves. I hope that’s false.