Are you saying we should shelter in place until there is a treatment and/or vaccine?
@mom517 so are you saying you won’t send your kids back to school without therapeutics or a vaccine?
And, absolutely, the reason we are all social distancing is to not overwhelm hospitals. That’s been reported umpteen times.
The president just said he thinks, for better or worse, that the economy will have to start opening up before we have everybody antibody-tested. So, yes, we will be moving around more here coming up with no therapeutics or vaccines.
@homerdog I am saying I don’t see K-12 kids going back to school before there is a known treatment that works (anti-viral, some cocktail combo tmt) along with wide spread testing. Social distancing was about flattening the curve so we don’t overwhelm our healthcare infrastructure. As far as life back to normal–the who shebang–sporting events, concerts, conferences…I don’t see that until a vaccine.
No, I won’t send my kids back to school without a treatment. I have someone in my house that has issues on that list. I don’t think I am alone in that. Also, I don’t want them to kill their grandparents.
According to the governor of NY, you can’t place a value on a human life. Our state doesn’t operate that way.
It’s possible your kids could not be in school for a year or two then, maybe more. The rest of society’s kids will have to go to school so parents can work.
D19 was also sick most of the fall. She eventually went to the Student Health Center, and tested positive for having had Mono. (didn’t have an active case, but test showed she’d had it very recently) Other students around the same time tested positive for the flu. So many respiratory illnesses go around in fall and winter, could be anything. But once COVID-19 hit, it became very obvious. I really doubt it was around the US last fall. But who knows?
A year or two for treatment? It won’t even be 2 years for a vaccine. I think you may be overestimating that. Where did you see that?
What treatment do you think is close? Remdesivir is likely closest and that is an IV only drug…not for mild cases, probably not moderate either. It is risky taking a drug to market so quickly from a safety perspective. Hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin. Didn’t help that a doc that is known to lack ethics was one of the first to tout it and then released poor data. Who knows what will happen with those, but potential is probably muted.
Vaccines. Where to start? We have viruses we have never been able to make a vaccine for. And not for lack of trying. Like HIV. Epstein Barr. And many more.
Some vaccines have taken decades to develop. Like HPV. Varicella. And many more.
We can’t shelter in place until there is a treatment or vaccine. Of course I hope against all odds something comes along sooner rather than later. YMMV.
Many families can choose to homeschool K-12 kids with or without hiring tutors. So, state / county most likely will give a “go” to schools and districts will give parents a choice. Majority of families cannot put food on table and keep roof over the head without risking their health. This stay-at-home order will very soon (quickly) hurt all people, even some people have promised career that can work fully at home to secure income. Everyone must make a decision for their own family.
@Mwfan1921 I know they are working on a vaccine right around the corner from where i live and they are testing it on human subjects. They have discussed timelines of having it by next fall. I know that is not a definite but I am hopeful. Some of us will have to keep our kids at home unfortunetly.
@austinmshauri , of course NYS makes that calculation every day. Many lives could be saved by dropping the speed limit to 30 mph on all roads. NYS does not do that because the cost/benefit analysis of lives saved versus economic disruption is decided against the lives saved. Would all NYC residents stay quarantined forever to prolong the life of a single terminally ill patient ? Governments make these decisions all the time, regardless of what Cuomo pretends.
@mom517 there will be no vaccine by this fall. More time is needed for proper testing. Not one expert is saying there will be a vaccine in less than 12 months.
To me, the biggest hurdle for sending students back is the need for a plan in case of a potential outbreak on campus. Something beyond shut down everything and leave it to families to attempt to bring students (who are potential carriers) back home (often infecting others on the journey).
I think schools are in a tough spot because failure to get this right (a mass outbreak at a school with deaths tied to it) will absolutely impact higher education. Many schools need OOS students for their budget to work. Private schools need full-pay families that feel wonderful about sending their children hundreds of miles away. Schools gambling with student’s safety are also gambling with their own financial future.
On the flip side- if distance education is a reasonable alternative then why should families fork over all that hard-earned money? Especially with this new risk? If distance education works well, schools lose too. They need students on campus, paying room and board and drawing in alumni at sporting events. Without it, most schools are going to be in the red.
It’s a lose-lose for the schools IMO.
@mom517 Next fall means fall of 2021.
Why don’t you have him tested? I would force the issue.
No, I don’t agree. Yes, the goal is to stop ALOT of people from dying at once, but not necessarily from dying period. The amount of people who die in car accidents every year could be eliminated if we banned cars. But we don’t.
We cannot sit in our homes for 18 months until a vaccine is produced… Can’t happen.
I think things will be very similar to how they are now in the fall. No vaccine, no treatment other than what we have now (ventilators for the very ill, OTC stuff for symptoms), orders to stay home/wear masks/stay 6 feet apart. People will have to decide if they want to stay home or go back to work, school, the movies, the beach, DisneyWorld. The colleges aren’t going to be able to provide social distancing. You have to decide if you can take the risk to go back to a public life.
We all saw what happened in March before the governors closed restaurants and stores-people still went on vacations, went to bars, went to the movies. The former assistant governor of Florida was pulling into Vail as they closed skiing and he was complaining about how unfair it was that they ruined his family vacation (next day the gov of Colorado closed all ski areas but not the restaurants or hotels). I know people who were at Disney as they were closing it.
YOU are going to have to decide if you are comfortable sending a student back to school without a vaccine, without PPE, with no hope of the school controlling the virus if one student has it. I think the majority will accept that risk, just like they did in March.
Yes, I am aware that next fall means Fall 2021.
@suzyQ7 I agree. No one can possibly sit in the house for 18 months waiting for a vaccine.
You really think that we won’t have EXPANSIVE testing 5 months from now and it will be the same as now? We are slow on the uptake, but pretty good at ingenuity - especially when driven by business where it helps their direct pocket book. I think we will be in a better place by summer - testing and tracing will happen and we will be happy to be traced/tracked. Want to move into college? You have to be tested and tracked so you can be identified if someone gets sick. We will have lots of quick tests. We will have testing in airports.
Once scientists can determine how long previous positives are immune (hopefully they are, for a long time!) We’ll have certifications- had Covid on xx/date.
I have been a BIG supporter of stay at home, but cannot imagine that non emergency doctors offices, dentists, elective surgeries and day cares won’t be opening in most places by June. Followed by other businesses. Most of us will be careful, and hopefully the weather helps (I’m convinced it does, look at the countries that don’t have alot of cases - like Australia… Even California).