I do not think colleges will require a covid test and ban people who don’t show antigens for it. How are they going to say “Oh, too bad you are healthy, but we are only letting those who have recovered come to school. Sorry, come back when you’ve had the disease.”
That’s what it would mean for anyone to be able to go shopping, to work, on vacation. That’s not going to happen.
I think they will require testing and tracking, not antibody testing. Antibody testing will be a “free pass” if (big if) antibodies give immunity to the virus.
However, I did notice that restaurants were becoming emptier during the week before there were governmental orders to go to take-out only. In other words, a fairly large subset of people were already modifying their behavior to reduce contact with others who may be carrying the feared virus.
Even if everything reopens, there will be less business due to people being afraid of getting the virus when they are near other people.
I think in the end we are going to decide that there are a bunch of places that are very risky for spread and need to be avoided/strictly isolated, including hospitals, nursing homes, sports stadiums etc. basically where you might spend a meaningful amount of time with a person (track and trace appears focused on 15+ minutes of contact at the moment) and we’ll realize that transient contact (eg in a supermarket) is much less risky than we might imagine today.
The question is how that plays out in the context of both location of your college (public transit oriented cities like New York may be much riskier than car-oriented cities like Los Angeles) and the activities on campus (no spectators at sports games, limited seating in lectures, etc.). But for most colleges I think solutions can potentially be found, if everyone is willing to wear a mask. After all it can’t be worse than Disneyland, which is now reopening in China with temperature checks, masks and limited capacity.
I have found it impossible to get antibody tests for my college kids. Who would I force the issue with?
I hope/think you’re right @Twoin18 @suzyQ7 – When testing (for Covid & antibodies) is plentiful, along with contact tracing (Google and Apple on this this!), plus isolation wards in colleges, then colleges can re-open, esp. relatively self-contained campuses. I esp. think b/c treatments are getting better every week and amazing health care professionals workers are crowdsourcing everything and treatment studies are underway.
I do think limiting large classes, athletics, and other large gatherings is also wise, plus wearing masks. Also, if a professor or staff is high risk they should zoom into class or continue to work remotely since students may be asymptomatic carriers.
My concerns are:
Timing – Colleges need to know by mid-June that these parameters (particularly plentiful testing and an effective contact tracing app) can be in place by end of summer to feel confident opening for the Fall. They can’t leave students hanging, and if classes are online again faculty need to prepare. That’s 8 short weeks away. I feel like Jan, unfort., may be the more likely timing.
Lawyers (of which my H is one!) – Colleges, like other institutions, are risk adverse and fear liability. Will they feel like waivers that students sign to come back to campus will be enough in a potential lawsuit?
For the record, right now I am very pro get these kids back in college (I know we all are, right!); I’m just trying to be realistic. I hope I’m wrong and it could be this Fall…
Depending on the college and since alot is unknown at this point if colleges open up for fall I think we will see hybrid learning. Live classes and recorded. Most do this anyway and my son has taken a class or two that just looking at the recorded class was a way to understand the material better. Maybe the break down sessions with the TAs will be live streamed? That type of thing. Maybe a choice of classes or maybe you have the choice to go to the live classes on alternate days so the amount of students in the room (depending on the size of the class) is reduced?
Not sure just talking out loud.
I know in my area you are still not able to get tested unless you are symptomatic and sick enough to be hospitalized.
ETA: sorry, just realized you were speaking of the antibody test. Don’t think that’s available to the masses at this point.
Why don’t we give businesses and colleges immunity from liability (via next round of Co-Vid legislation) as long as they act reasonably with respect to Co-Vid cases. Have some statutory safe harbors that businesses and colleges can follow and get back to school/work. Then, families/people have to make their own decisions. We can spend another month or so getting our arms around Co-Vid. If we stay “sheltered” in place for 18 months to two years waiting for a vaccine, there is not going to be much to come back to for many of us. Small businesses and small colleges will die. And, if colleges have to implicitly state that “online is as good as in person classes” (by charging the same tuition) a large number of students will never go back to traditional residential colleges at all. There will be massive shift towards online college education as a cheaper alternative to the unaffordable costs of college. Just my 2 cents.
Not just small colleges and businesses will close if this continues for too long. Large corporations have called counsel to explore bankruptcy options. In another year, the Great Depression will be minor compared to our conditions.
So colleges usually start around or after Labor day. So why not push everything back a month or month and a half to open? They could slowly integrate people back on campus with maybe new rules (not sure what those are yet)
Maybe no rushes till spring.
So starting classes in Oct then. Shorten up the schedule and /or shorten up winter/ Spring break if needed to catch up or just shorten what is learned that first semester.
I don’t like change as much as the other guy but I think an approach like this and my suggestions above would instill a bit more confidence.
So now you say “what about a second wave”?.
PUNT!
I’m not suggesting we will be sheltering in place for 2 years. I don’t know why people jump to that conclusion when I say that I don’t know how K-12 kids will return to school in the fall without a proven treatment. There is a big difference between sending schools with 1000+ kids back to mingle in a small space and slowly reopening small businesses and even larger corporate offices and malls. Kids have terrible hygiene and would likely be asymptomatic carriers. I can see alot of ways that we can slowly be getting back to normal but I have heard many experts saying that we as a nation should prepare for the next 18 months until we have a vaccine to not be attending any events that have large gatherings including concerts, sporting events, or conferences. They did mention that schools potentially could be reopened with students attending on a volunteer basis. Before there is a proven treatment or a vaccine --People will go back to work. The nation will reopen. But will kids go back to school as we know it? I am not so sure about that. I also think there will be variables depending on WHERE you live. Someone mentioned mid March folks still being out and about. Not here…
How could that even work? Someone has to look after the kids. Or are you suggesting people with school age kids don’t get to work?
accommodating kids in dorms will go haywire. In my New York town kids are thinking/planning they are going to emory, Cornell, Binghamton, buffalo, ohio state, etc. Typically kids are in doubles even forced triples. Yuck. The thought of placing kids in singles and leaving dorms empty for covid reserves, what happens to the kids who need to live on campus and coming from afar yet there is no room for them with hypothetical distancing?when do they get told there is no dorm? It’s just a logistical nightmare. I guess colleges will honest up in July, after they get their deposits.andonce more is known about this disease. But i am mostly cynical and think colleges just want to stay in business .at what cost i dont know.
Whoa! Need to sit down and read this again. Well there goes my new theory of hiring more teachers /professors /graduates with the attempt to have smaller classes… Lol.
So with $40 billion even if it is less now they still have to make these cuts? Something seems off here. I mean if Harvard is going to struggle will be interesting how small Lacs will make it through. Maybe they have better money management skills?
This is why colleges need to be back in business asap. Even the wealthiest can’t afford this for too much longer. The good news is that Harvard, at least, will be able to fill its class with those willing to return. Other colleges, not so much.
@knowstuff Tons of colleges have already said they will have a hiring freeze. Many presidents are taking one year pay cuts too. All you have to do is google the school and “coronavirus” to find community messages that are being sent out weekly or even more often by the presidents.
@knowstuff i came across this article a few days ago when i was searching for info on Harvard’s president’s covid update. https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/4/11/fas-loses-30-million-coronavirus/
so many schools with hiring freezes. I could cut and paste dozens of examples. Here’s Wake and Richmond.
https://coronavirus.wfu.edu/university-communications/managing-the-financial-impact-of-covid-19/