I’m not sure this is true - there was 1 case, i believe, but it may have been a mistake. I don’t think we have real evidence either way. I’ll try and dig up some links.
Or correctly guess where the hot spots will be over the next few years?
I think we are going to move to a “managed” lifestyle with this and colleges will open up. Obviously the elderly and compromised will have to continue to shelter in place. No doubt about that. But they are talking about an instant test soon being available with results in 5 minutes. I could see frequent testing to determine if one goes to work or school that day. I think we’re going to move to a “roll out” of the population with younger people gaining the greatest ability to “move about the cabin.” Masks may become a more common thing in civilian culture. Professors will have to mitigate their personal situation. Will they teach but distance?
The bottom line is it’s a changing landscape but you can bet they will find ways to keep this economy moving. It can’t stay shut down forever.
This is all just speculation - nothing more, nothing less.
For what it’s worth: the German virology “Pope” who is basically writing the policy right now for the country and who has done research on Coronaviruses for a long time has posited that, while personal immunity against this particular virus may wane fairly quickly, a second infection may look more like the common cold produced by the human Coronaviruses that have circulated for ever, not migrate to the lungs anymore. That doesn’t help so much for herd immunity, though, because it may become more infectious rather than less.
My kids hate online classes also but I’ve just had some random thoughts as I’ve read this thread.
If your child wasn’t considering a gap year before but decides to do so based on speculation how will they spend their time? As many have stated, if colleges don’t reopen most gap year opportunities will also be limited.
How will your child feel if they choose a gap year now based on fear, but then colleges open up as usual?
When I sent my kids to college it was to get them their education to get to the next phase in their lives (jobs, grad school). That is still my goal. I have no intentions of delaying that goal because their next semester MIGHT be online. They will just have to figure out the online platform and get to graduation.
What if colleges decide that online is the new norm for the future? There will be more limited face to face classes. Many students at various colleges and universities already struggle to get into these classes. Are you willing to delay college indefinitely?
If you or your child chose a school based on their reputation do you think that reputation is just going to disappear? Do you think the diploma displaying the Ivy is suddenly worth less if a semester continues online?
Like I said. Just random thoughts as I’ve read this thread.
DD starts online today. Even if there will be online classes come fall, I don’t see any reason to withdraw for the semester or the year.
She had trouble getting a few classes for fall, IF the school is still using online instructions, she might be able to actually get them.
I would be more concerned for this years’ spring grads. My son graduated last spring and it took him a few months to get a position as it was, I can’t even imagine the difficulty for this graduating class. He visited his college friends beginning of March for a few days. They were on co-ops so graduated a year later. Many were offered positions but will that still be the case? For those graduating without an offer, I see a very long difficult road ahead.
That would be my concern. There will be huge competition for any and all kinds of jobs once the unemployed start losing their benefits. There will be huge competition for any and almost all volunteer opportunities, because there will be so many unemployed college kids and adults looking for things to do. And even if you have money for an international volunteer/internship placement, those options will be dramatically reduced as well.
Because if we don’t get this economy kicking by then, we’ll all be out buying guns and ammo with the same urgency and imperativeness as we’ve sought out toilet paper this whole month. At least I will be.
Seriously. We just had over 3 million apply for unemployment and the most we’ve ever had before is 600K or so. They’re now predicting 33% unemployment, and at the worst of the Great Depression it was “only” 24.9.
Is this not terrifying anyone else?
Gun stores are not necessarily considered “essential businesses” in some states.
It is terrifying to me, yes.
I will probably advise my kids to go to the local college. Please add to my reasons to ATTEND A NEARBY COLLEGE, or let me know if these are dumb.
- might have a solid academic program for your major, or you may just get general courses out of the way
- might be less expensive (than OOS)
- you can drive to college and don't have to worry about limited or expensive flights (more than 40% of the global passenger jet fleet is in storage)
- maybe you can live at home the first year and commute (dorms might be used for COVID patients and quarantine purposes)
- don't want to take a GAP year, if you can't travel
- don't want to take a GAP year, if you can't get an internship or good job
- less expensive and we don't want to use our 529 account this year
- will likely be online part of the first year wherever you go
- even though it may be less prestigious, it could just be for one year
- you can apply for a transfer later
That all makes sense.
There is always risk in transferring wrt transfer school accepting credits (may increase likelihood of attending undergrad for more than 4 years), and generally poorer financial aid - both merit and need based.
“Please add to my reasons to ATTEND A NEARBY COLLEGE, or let me know if these are dumb.”
Two big unknowns: Will the pandemic be over by September? Will the economy be stable and recovering by September?
If the local “college” is an affordable public in-state university, then there are obvious economic advantages. Some companies and some industries are likely to have layoffs in the near future. Anyone who is paying for university with money that is in the stock market does not know how much money they will have in September.
The point of this is that the pandemic creates a great deal of economic uncertainty.
Of course some of us also have local options which are private schools at huge prices.
The other uncertainty relates to travel: We do not know when it will be easy to travel again. With hotels shut down long distance driving becomes tough. Flying is also uncertain right now. There are lots of cases where if you travel from out of state you are asked to self quarantine for two weeks (which can hit you in both directions).
One thing that you might or might not add to your list: Attending university near home provides flexibility. If you need to you can live at home and save money. However, if you can afford it then you can live on campus. If you are living on campus, then life will be very different compared to what you are used to even if the campus is only 5 or 10 minutes from home. It is still like living in a different world. Then if something goes wrong (you have a nasty breakup or you catch the coronavirus) help can be nearby.
I’m not sure I really understand the fear of a gap year without BIG IMPORTANT PLANS. They’ve already graduated high school, they’re already accepted into college, why can’t they just… be? My daughter is taking a gap year- it has been the plan all along- and never had any big plans for it. She hopes that dance studios open back up (for her training and to work), and she plans to take the allowed number of classes her college allows during a gap year (3)- online, at a local community college- but other than that she just wants a breather before moving away to college. That’s been our plan since last year and I am completely happy with it.
I don’t think students need ‘big important plans’ (don’t understand why you are shouting) to take a gap year.
My point was if schools aren’t in session, things will be tough wrt to the economy (may be hard to get a job), activities (things not open/no normalcy), impossible to travel. If faced with an option of not being able to work/doing activities/living fairly normal life, might as well be doing remote learning. YMMV
@milgymfam Gap year without big plans? Because, when we signed up to pay $300k for college, we did so with the understanding that it would include every single thing we wanted for our S. We are paying a premium for something that might not exist next semester. Online classes at home no longer fit with that decision we made. I’m trying to hold it together and just wait to see what his school decides to do for fall. If they need to stay home, then I really hope there will be a discount involved for classes that are not what we signed up for. If that’s an option, we will entertain it. How can anyone pay over $100 per hour for their student to take a virtual online class? Colleges know it. They must be weighing all kinds of options that will keep kids from not coming at all and temporarily changing their pricing model is one way.
@homerdog I think you and I are having a miscommunication. I completely understand how you feel about fall for your student- it is logical and reasonable, but I wasn’t talking about kids in college at all, but graduating high school seniors considering deferring. I was talking about the sentiment I’ve seen where people have said they would want their kids to take a gap year, but all the international gap year companies and fancy internships will not be happening. My only point was that if they’re accepted and deferring a year, they can just be… relax… breathe. No big, important reason for a gap year required. In my humble opinion, of course.
@Mwfan1921, sorry to be shout-y. There seems to be a huge buy-in on cc that gap years have to be super meaningful or resume building. I just don’t understand that thinking, really.
@milgymfam Ah I understand. I agree that there may be very little to do in a gap year coming up. I’m sure that incoming freshman feel the same way though if they decide to enroll at a school where they expected a certain experience. To just choose a different school that’s closer or less expensive doesn’t necessarily make sense to me. This will be over at some point. If a student got into some elite school and the parents can still afford it, those kids are likely to (at the very least) have three years on campus. I’m sure many of them don’t want to make a different choice and look at it that way. So, hence, the want to wait a year and get the full four years.
Agree. As I said in another thread, we decided to stick to the plan and commit to MIT, despite having a full tuition merit offer from Vandy on the table.
@TheVulcan MIT!! Congratulations! We’d sell the family farm to make that work. Plus MIT is so high tech and innovative. I bet online learning there will be top notch compared to any other elite school.