Of course, it was spreading. The first known case was early December. Just look at the rapid rate it is spreading. It’s been spreading like that since early December. Under the radar. Do the math. The number of the sick is practically doubling every couple of days. 1 on 12/8 becomes 2 by 12/10, 4 by 12/12, 8 12/14,… I think the current estimate of a few thousand is an underestimate.
A delay for detecting this this disease is inevitable even if Wuhan did everything right. The initial cases could well present as a normal flu and be dispersed among separate hospitals, even if within the same city. A doctor will only notice when the patient prognosis takes a turn for the worse, and the warning flag will only occur when enough cases appear in a geographical area that an observant official notices.
In other words, outbreaks for something like this coronavirus are always discovered AFTER a considerable delay because it has indistinct symptoms. This is unlike a disease like Ebola which has a very distinct physical symptoms and can be detected as soon as the first patient gets into the end stages.
True. In fact, I have a viral illness right now which probably sounds very similar to this disease. The coronavirus sounds like hundreds of others viral illnesses that are rampant now. I imagine it wasn’t until they started seeing a cluster of deaths that it began to distinguish itself from other less virulent viruses.
When there is a measles outbreak in LA County, the news reports where the person went so that any person who may have been exposed will know. We find out that the person went to Disneyland, then to a particular Starbucks or a particular movie theater.
Why don’t we even get those basic facts with the coronavirus? There is a case in LA County and two in Orange. But no particulars on the town, where they shopped or dined or anything other than they returned from Wuhan.
Maybe they’re trying to prevent a panic. Americans get concerned, but not totally freaked out, over chicken pox and they look for the telltale rash. The early stages of this coronavirus look like a whole bunch of other viruses, including the common cold.
So little is still known about this virus.
Re: measles, much higher Ro (12-18) vs this virus (2-3, but who knows right now).
I think there’s also a sense of helplessness whenever a novel virus appears. With something like measles or CP most people can tell themselves they’ve taken reasonable precautions by being vaccinated. Those who haven’t been vaccinated tend not to think of these diseases as deadly.
When something like Ebola or this latest coronavirus emerges the specter of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic raises its ugly head and people get very frightened. The standard flu viruses which kill tens of thousands on an annual basis are not novel so people don’t pay them the same attention as newer diseases.
Well, there is that but also this coronavirus appears to be presenting with a higher Ro and morbidity rate than the flus we see annually.
And, Ebola has a very high morbidity rate of 50%. Serious reason for alarm. You just can’t compare that to a typical strain of influenza.
“Well, there is that but also this coronavirus appears to be presenting with a higher Ro and morbidity rate than the flus we see annually.”
Citation, please. Let’s not contribute to FUD.
I always though that one of the saddest parts about an Ebola outbreak was how the healthcare providers always paid the highest price. Of the deaths, a disproportionate number are the doctors and nurses who care for the sick; and within the areas hit by Ebola the healthcare workers are often shunned or the facilities burned down. The healthcare workers who treat Ebola patients - often with substandard protective gear and knowing they’re likely to catch Ebola and/.or be shunned by the community - are truly heroes.
post 117 as my source and there has been previous talk of Ro on this thread. As far as morbidity, although the numbers are imperfect, that’s can be calculated from those plus it’s been in the press. But, as I’ve mentioned frequently, we really don’t know much about this virus yet.
Honestly, the beating of the “flu kills people” drum on this thread is getting a little repetitious. Yup, we know flu kills people annually. We get that. This thread is about the new novel coronavirus. The virus is getting attention for a reason. WHO head doesn’t fly to China for all viruses, nor have we seen the type of unprecedented steps being taken this time before. It is understandable why I and others find it interesting to track and see the responses. I wouldn’t confuse that with panic.
They knew it was a different strain, SARS like but different, in mid-December. Yes, even if you do everything right it can get out of hand but in this case, they knew. Wuhan mayor is pointing fingers at Beijing. He claims Beijing suppressed the info.
That docuseries, Pandemic, by Netflix focused on a lot of that. Very eye opening.
Reposting the link from 117 because Dos is too busy to do so.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366
The article is actually much more balanced that certain alarmists’ posts here.
Well, I did post it initially so… 
But, I get that you’re trying to make a dig at me.
There’s also another, much higher estimated Ro that was posted by someone else with a link in #128 and several posts discussing Ros.
Who’s being alarmist? I do see a little conspiracy theories but I haven’t seen what I would call alarm.
Some more science-y articles that I found interesting:
Maybe that market in Wuhan isn’t the source of the coronavirus (13 of the 41 people who were first hospitalized in Wuhan had no link to the marketplace):
Scientists who are not particularly optimistic:
" “The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer"
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/
Interesting read on the delayed responsiveness blamed on bureaucracy, shortages, holiday period, and other factors.
*First death reported in Beijing.
I am by no means an infectious disease expert, nor do I play one on TV.
But one thing I have read is that diseases with very high morbidity rates tend to burn out–they are like fires in closed places that consume all the oxygen in the room.
The ones that tend to spread widely and can cause more deaths until treatments widely available are diseases where where infected people can spread the disease without apparent symptoms and where the morbidity rate is lower. Think of AIDS.
ETA: Most of what I learned about these diseases was from my interest in reading The Hot Zone in 1995 and other stuff from more academic sources at the time. So very out of date, and I welcome hearing from others with more knowledge.
@hebegebe I bet you’d find that Netflix docuseries interesting.
Ebola is transmitted through bodily fluids rather than respiratory/airborne droplets like this virus, flus and illnesses like measles, mumps, rubella, etc. , so I guess it is less transmittable if exposure to bodily fluids is controlled.
This link contains info on the novel coronavirus’ estimated Ro. Posted this afternoon so it is currently at the top.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
From Financial Times:
The US government is considering expanding its travel and screening recommendations to try to slow the spread of the coronavirus within the next 24 hours, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...
the US is considering broadening screening at the border and changing its recommendations on where Americans should travel.
The US has screened 2,400 people coming from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, and is continuing to track passengers in transit who took indirect routes from the province, now that there are no longer direct flights.
The CDC is tracking 110 people who they suspect could have been exposed to the disease across 26 states but so far there are only five confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the US. The public health department is working to distribute a new diagnostic test to healthcare providers, which will take a week or two."