Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
2721

The flu vaccine is crucial. Those numbers for “effectiveness” mean the reduction in identified cases. So if the vaccine is 50% effective, that means that without it, you would have 50% more people sick enough to seek care and get a flu test.

Last year, 90% of people who died from influenza were unvaccinated. The majority of people who were hospitalized were unvaccinated.

The case of flu you get if you had the vaccine is much more mild. I don’t think they should put out those “effective” percentages because people might think only X% of people who get the vaccine are protected. That’s not how it works. For people who get the vaccine it’s very effective at reducing your risk of hospitalization or death. For the population at large, it reduces identified cases by that number.

2722

@doschicos, agree that being vaccinated doesn’t make it impossible I’m having the flu, but having decades of flu shots under my belt (including swine flu!) it’s highly unlikely there is anything around I do not have at least some immunity against. Also, I had the real flu almost 30 years ago (before I started getting the flu shots religiously) and it doesn’t creep up on you over a week of the hardest skiing you’ve ever done (learning to be an aide to a beginning monoskier) the way this cold did - it knocks you flat on your back within 30 minutes! I’m hanging out here with a mildly scratchy throat, a mild sniffle, some grumpiness and (of today) no temperature, still doing food and laundry. Maybe this is how flu manifests in someone with my specific immunity status, but I doubt it. Could be any of the four types of Coronavirus that have caused common colds forever - or it could be covid 19.

Daughter is very grumpy, with mild temperature. Husband is grumpy, but no temperature (he’s perfectly capable of being grumpy and well, LOL). Boys are fine so far. Having spent the week in a tiny hotel suite and a day in the car, there Is no point whatsoever in separating ourselves now.

It feels completely odd to contemplate whether we should self isolate as a family for 14 days.

@tkoparent, advice is the following triage: if there has been no exposure to a known patient and no travel to high risk areas in Italy (our situation), you’re to self monitor your health, stay home only when unwell, and wash hands. No self isolation for 14 days, no testing even if you ask for it (as I found out this morning), assume it’s the flu, phone your GP to discuss, come into hospital only if starting to feel very ill.

Known exposure or travel to high risk area, you’re to self isolate for 14 days and self monitor your own health. Arrange testing via your GP only if symptoms develop, and come into hospital only if starting to feel very ill.

When I ask around, EVERYONE tells me someone in their family is ill with something, and I am being alarmist. If everyone who is fine on Monday goes back to school or work, and it turns out we are spreaders though, I will feel completely irresponsible.

How come it’s completely up to us what to do about our symptoms during a pandemic?!

I am assuming the triage criteria I have outlined work to save up resources during the containment phase. Most experts think Europe is beyond that, and we are in the community spread phase. I wish they’d focused on building up testing capability. Maybe they have, and it’s still not enough they can afford to do community spread testing.

2723

Agree. The lack of info in many countries, including US, seems unhelpful. What you have outlined seems to be the case in my state as well. Perhaps avoid contact with the grandparents, though, who by age are at greater risk. Hope you all feel better soon!

2724

Wow. I really don’t understand the lack of testing. I if it’s so easy to do in South Korea, Italy, and UK- why not in other developed countries. You could say that you were in contact with someone from Lombardy and make them test you.

2725

GERMANY - 38 newly report cases brings the total to 117.

UK - 12 new cases for a total of 35.
6 had traveled to Italy
2 had traveled to Iran
3 are close contacts of a known case
1 (in Essex) has no travel history and no clear link to cases. Being investigated.

Pence speaking to CNN’s Jake Tapper:

When asked during a taped interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper about the possibility of more deaths, Pence said “it is possible."

In his remarks, Pence also mentions Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“I mean the reality that Dr. Fauci and others explained to me since I took on these duties a few days ago, is that for most people that contract the coronavirus, they will recover. They will deal with a respiratory illness, we’ll get them treatment, but for people that have other conditions that would militate toward a worse outcome that, we could have more. We could have more sad news. But the American people should know the risk for the average American remains low,” Pence said.
Pence said federal officials are addressing the lack of testing kits in the US.

“It’s a very fair question. And it’s one of the first issues governors I spoke to raised with me. I’m happy to report that this weekend more than 15,000 testing kits have been released. Also the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) has approved a testing regimen that state and local officials can be using. And beyond that we actually are working with a commercial provider with new testing framework to send another 50,000 kits out," Pence said. (CNN)

2726

I’m curious to know if any meetings/conventions of physicians are being cancelled due to coronavirus. (They would seem to be in a unique position to evaluate the risk).

2727

Yes our initial testing in the US was a fiasco, but finally seems to be getting better. Here’s an article on some of the background:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

2728

Maybe so but the US closed the border to China earlier than most albeit with holes. Look at countries who kept the borders wide open, South Korea, Italy, Iran. WHO is still refusing to call it pandemic.

2729

The American Osteopathic Association is having their annual conference in Boulder from March 11-15.

Haven’t heard that it is cancelled!

2730

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/one-king-county-patient-has-died-due-to-covid-19-infection/

So while the number of deaths is going to be known, the denominator, the total number of cases, for this virus is unknown but highly likely to be much larger than the current statistics say.

2731

Italy was one of the very first to ban all flights from China, earlier than the USA. Not sure where you are getting your news from.

2732

A widely-visited church in Rome has closed over coronavirus fears.

“The move to shut Rome’s Church of San Luigi dei Francesi, which hosts Caravaggio’s “The Calling of St Matthew” masterpiece, came after a priest in Paris tested positive for the virus after returning from Italy.” (Guardian)

LEBANON - 3 more people tested positive for coronavirus after arriving from Iran, bringing the total in the country to 10.

Paris’ Louvre museum closes

The Louvre museum in Paris closed its doors due to fears over the coronavirus, a union representative told AFP.

Around 300 staff of the world’s most popular museum met in the morning and voted “almost unanimously” not to open in the morning, Christian Galani of the CGT labour union told AFP.

“We are very worried because we have visitors from everywhere,” said Andre Sacristin, a Louvre employee and union representative for its staffers. (Reuters)

"A short statement from the Louvre said a staff meeting about virus prevention efforts stopped the museum from opening as scheduled Sunday morning. Would-be visitors were still waiting to get inside on Sunday afternoon.

The shutdown followed a government decision Saturday to ban indoor public gatherings of more than 5,000 people…that new measure exacerbated the fears of Louvre workers that they might be in danger of contamination, because the museum welcomes tens of thousands of visitors each day. Also worrying staffers is that museum workers from northern Italy are now visiting the Louvre. They have come to collect works by Leonardo da Vinci that were loaned for a major exhibition, he said.

A meeting about virus prevention is scheduled for Monday between union representatives and the museum management…Louvre workers first held their own meeting on Sunday morning and then demanded talks with the museum management, he said, and some staffers were refusing to work because they fear contamination." (Time)

2733

First case confirmed in Rhode Island.

The Rhode Island Department of Health has announced the state’s first “presumptive positive” case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The person is in their 40s and had traveled to Italy in mid-February, the department says. The news release does not reveal the person’s gender or hometown.

It says that the person has had “limited travel” in Rhode Island since returning from Italy, and that the person has not gone back to work since returning to the country.

2734

Here’s RI Health’s statement:

https://www.ri.gov/press/view/37818

It includes this:
"Outreach to the people who were in direct contact with this individual has already begun, with extensive efforts underway to ensure that they undergo a period of 14 days of self-monitoring for symptoms at home with public health supervision (quarantine). As long as anyone exposed to the individual does not have symptoms outside of their home setting, the virus cannot spread to other people in the community. This individual’s immediate family members have been self-quarantining at home since it was determined that, based on this person’s travel history and symptoms, the individual met the criteria to be evaluated for COVID-19. "

So, this part > "As long as anyone exposed to the individual does not have symptoms outside of their home setting, the virus cannot spread to other people in the community. " That’s not really true, is it? Asymptomatic people with Covid-19 have been shown to be contagious.

Other good info and suggestions in there, though.

2735

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/upshot/coronavirus-surprise-medical-bills.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

I can foresee many people not going to get checked.

2736

”Agree that being vaccinated doesn’t make it impossible I’m having the flu, but having decades of flu shots under my belt (including swine flu!) it’s highly unlikely there is anything around I do not have at least some immunity against. Also, I had the real flu almost 30 years ago (before I started getting the flu shots religiously) and it doesn’t creep up on you over a week of the hardest skiing you’ve ever done (learning to be an aide to a beginning monoskier) the way this cold did - it knocks you flat on your back within 30 minutes!”

@Tigerle — to be clear, the inflenza virus causes a spectrum of disease, from asymptomatic but possibly still contagious, to mild cold-like symptoms, to the full-blown influenza syndrome consisting of fever, headache, body aches, cough, and exhaustion. Nobody gets the full syndrome very often. (Well, probably some people do, butI haven’t seen that in clinical practice.) You can go a decade or more between bouts. This does NOT give you immunity to the strains of influenza that circulate each year.

The influenza virus is continually mutating, so that this year’s strains can infect you even if you got them last year. This is known as antigenic drift. However, if you have been exposed to a similar strain of flu in the past and you get it again, it is likely that you will have a mild case, not even necessarily recognizable as flu.

Occasionally there is a major shift in a strain of flu virus, which can lead to more people having severe symptoms, a phenomenon called antigenic shift. If you are familiar with the numbers that are used to describe flu strains, like H1N1, antigenic shift usually means a shift to a completely different antigen, e.g. from H1 to H3. The influenza pandemic of 1918, as well as swine flu in ‘09, are examples of antigenic shift.

2737

@Iglooo I wasn’t able to read the whole article but the first paragraph of this WSJ article from 2/28 states that Italy Is the only European country to ban flights from China. I wasn’t able to read far enough Into the article to see when Italy instituted that ban.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italians-are-being-treated-as-a-risk-abroad-over-coronavirus-11582913454

2738

@CIEE83 , thank you for the explanation, I stand corrected and will add „mild case of flu“ to the possibilities. Still don’t want to go into my GP’s and potentially expose elderly patients just to get tested. Will drink more green and rock rose tea. Still have no idea what to do about our family tomorrow, sigh…

2739

@iglooo

Italy quickly and swiftly banned flights from China after having its first two confirmed cases of Chinese nationals with Covid-19.

Wiki:
In late January 2020, following the developments of COVID-19 outbreak in mainland China, enhanced screening measures, including thermal cameras and medical staff, were set up at Leonardo da Vinci–Fiumicino Airport and Milan Malpensa Airport.[12][13]

“On 31 January, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Rome. Two Chinese tourists, who arrived in Milan on 23 January via Milan Malpensa Airport and travelled to Rome on a tourist bus, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were hospitalised in Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute for Infectious Diseases.[2] Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Italy is the first EU country to take this precautionary measure.”

Many articles. Here’s one:
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/italy-stops-planes-and-china-over-coronavirus

Here’s a recent one wondering if the ban backfired.

“Italy was the first European Union country to ignore the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) advice not to ban flights to and from China because of the coronavirus outbreak.”

“Italy’s ban on January 31, which included Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, was met by diplomatic protests in Beijing. The Czech government followed suit.”

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3052450/italy-reeling-coronavirus-outbreak-discovers-what-its-be-chinese

2740

The US stopped most travel from China at the end of January. They did allow Americans to return but have been quarantining them at select spots. I’m not sure how much sooner or better we could have reacted.

How should we have reacted better? What should we be doing different now?