@Tigerle your current experience outlines exactly what I am thinking about. Everyone correct me if I am wrong, but I think I have read that people can be asymptomatic and spread the virus, and that the virus can live on surfaces for a while, AND the early symptoms of COVID19 are similar to a bad cold? Or is fever a must for COVID? If the above is true, of course it is going to spread rapidly, because people don’t know they have it, and no one is self quarantining for a cold right now. Even if Tigerele, as an example, chose to stay home, the family must be picking it up from him/her or the house, and they are out in the world (not a judgement, just an example. My husband and my son both have colds right now. They are going to work and school, and not wearing masks. )
This is what is making me think that we are in for a large outbreak. Or that, as we speak,it is spreading around US cities because people don’t know they have it, and/or are waiting for it to get bad before going to get tested. Am I wrong?
Not sure I’m seeing the issue here. Just call your GP the first thing tomorrow morning, tell the office your symptoms and ask what you should do: go direct to their office? special entrance? call the local health department clinic? take aspirin and go back to bed? other?
Agree with you as do many experts from what I’ve read. Fever doesn’t present in all cases. Many remain asymptomatic based on data. Yes, previous discussion here about it being “invisible” in many people who go around spreading, therefore it is hard to stop with things like airport temperature checks and the like. It’s hard to track and contain something that doesn’t always show symptoms but is still contagious.
‘Coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for six weeks in Washington state, study says‘
“Genetic analysis of samples taken from two patients suggests that the coronavirus has been spreading for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death from covid-19 was reported this weekend. The finding could have broad implications for the spread of the disease in the rest of the country.
Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, announced Saturday night on Twitter that an analysis of the virus specimen from a newly diagnosed patient in Snohomish County closely matched that of a specimen from a person who traveled from China in January and was the first known coronavirus case in the United States.
The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that these cases are linked through community transmission, Bedford wrote — and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely.
“This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington state for the past 6 weeks,” he wrote. “I believe we’re facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”
I believe I read that we are going to start testing of certain patients. We don’t have enough tests to currently test everyone or even a large number of people. Testing those most sick seems the right course of action.
With asymptomatic people being able to spread this the reality is this virus is going to go throughout our population. We are not going to stop it from spreading no matter how hard we try. Our best bet is to work on a vaccine, prepare for all the people that are going to really get ill and stop the panic (it does no good).
“Rome’s decision on Jan. 31 to block flights to and from China was greeted with dismay in Beijing, which has been lobbying in the last few days to have the ban lifted.”
Nothing has been expressed along those lines yet. At this stage, probably too late. The country hasn’t expressed accurate means of quarantining people yet in numbers.
Same thing in Italy by reports. If Chinese cases are an indication, many people don’t die right away. It can take awhile - weeks or longer.
Yes, the horse is out of the barn now. However, WHO did warn countries to jump on it awhile back. The US dropped the ball on test kits. Mistakes were made and implementing alternatives took too long, just in the past 2 days. A vaccine will take 6 months minimum to be ready by all accounts of those with expertise on such matters. Slowing the spread can still be important until a vaccine is available and more aggressive testing is an important component of understanding where we are right now and addressing it. Data is needed to formalize an effective strategy.
Not yet. VP said it was because in Korea and Italy it is limited to a region. They are talking with official in those countries. I am guessing to make sure the affected regions are quarantined in their country.
Don’t need no stinkin’ study to make that claim – just common sense for anyone in heath care.
OTOH, heard from someone at CDC (second hand) that they are hoping one good thing that comes out of the heightened prevention (hand washing, coughing into elbow, trying to avoid crowded spaces), may be a reduction in the flu transmission this year.
TESTING! CDC decided not to use the WHO test, and then bungled making our own test, wasting weeks. Doctors were begging for their patients to be tested, but were refused. Meanwhile the disease was spreading undetected in the community. This was culpable incompetence.
We are testing potential cases. Who all do you suggest we test? Where are these test kits coming from? What are we going to do differently with the results? Are we going to quarantine entire towns, cities, counties, states?
Sure, we’ll have a better idea of the breadth of the issue but it’s already spreading faster than we’ll be able to keep up with.
I don’t think we ever had a hope of stopping it from spreading. It’s totally different in how it acts.
@bluebayou , the question isn’t what the GP can do for me (zilch) but what I can do for my country!
I may have a mild case of flu, a mild case of coronavirus or a garden variety cold, but am not ill enough to even waste my overworked GP’s time with a phone call, let alone with a visit which might expose her patients to the more serious options. I know they wouldn’t bother to test me for the flu (haven’t done so even when I or DH came in MUCH worse), they’d consider it a waste of resources because there is absolutely nothing to be done at this point but take another aspirin and go back to bed, just as I’d do for the common cold. They can’t test me for Coronavirus and, per the triage guidelines, can’t refer me for testing at the university hospital either.
Of course, everyone of my family who has symptoms will stay home tomorrow or as long as it takes. But beyond that? It is completely up to us to make the assumption ‘this is corona which might kill 2 million people in this country” or “this is a garden variety cold and we are legally required to go to work and school”.