Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
2881

Re: faulty CDC kits, it seems that the decision that was finally put into place on Saturday to let local governments use there own test kits that they developed came about through pushback from states.

"That has sparked some states to seek approval to use their own kits, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Saturday said it would allow some labs to use tests they have developed, in order to speed up testing capacity, the report said.

In New York, where the first case in Manhattan was just reported, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state has sought approval to begin using its own test kit." (CNBC)

2882

I have been wondering if my sonā€™s school (and others) will reopen after spring break on March 22nd.

2883

CHINA - 202 (196 Hubei) new confirmed cases for a total of 80,026, 42 new deaths (all Hubei) for a total of 2,912. The total confirmed cases has passed 80,000 for the first time. Of the 80,026 confirmed cases, 44,462 (56%) have recovered and 2,912 (or 3.6%) have died.

SOUTH KOREA - 476 new cases

9:50 am: South Korea reports 476 more cases bringing the total to 4,212. 4 more deaths bringing the total 22.

Murder probe sought for S. Korea sect at centre of outbreak

"Officials in Seoul are accusing the church at the epicentre of South Koreaā€™s growing coronavirus outbreak of murder.

A case has been filed with prosecutors, claiming the leaders of Shincheonji - the Christian church where the first cases were reported - are liable for the outbreak because they didnā€™t cooperate with efforts to stop the disease.

Park Won-soon, mayor of the capital Seoul, said if Lee and other leaders of the church had cooperated, effective preventive measures could have saved those who later died of the virus." (Al Jazeera)

DIAMOND princess - "The captain of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Gennaro Arma, has been praised by passengers for his frequent messages and strong leadership during their gruelling quarantine.

In one of his updates to the shipā€™s 2,600 passengers, he said:
For all of you who are concerned about me, Iā€™m extremely moved by your kindness and Iā€™d like to reassure you all that Iā€™m absolutely fine. Iā€™m very much the same captain that I was 12 days ago, just with the addition of a few new grey hairs." (Guardian)

SAN MARINO - 7 new cases for a total of 8. One new death - an 80 year old man.

2884

CDC has been very slow in releasing detailed diagnostic data. Anybody remember the first 20 pages of this thread where posters thought sending US doctors to China would help provide more transparency and more information?

ā€œ But infectious disease doctors say they canā€™t understand why the information hasnā€™t already been shared, considering that many of these patients recovered weeks ago.

The CDC has guidance on its website for physicians who might find themselves treating coronavirus patients, but that advice relies almost entirely on papers published by researchers in China.ā€

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/health/coronvirus-patient-research-cdc/index.html

2885

Hasnā€™t the CDC been essentially muzzled? Restrictions on who/what can be releasedā€¦

2886

Iā€™m a bit nervous. The Washington patient in critical condition is at Virginia Mason, where my mother had surgery on Friday and where I have just spent the weekend at her bedside. Her companion is suffering from a respiratory illness now and will see a doctor tomorrow. And I fly home to Maine on Wednesday.

2887

@doschicos , Iā€™m late returning to the Cafe but want to add my thanks for all of your updates. Itā€™s taken me two days to read all 145 pages, but this has been more informative than any local news sources.

2888

@Massmom, hoping for good news and safety for you, for your mother, and for, well, everybody.

2889

I do not recall this kind of hysteria during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic.

12 000 people in the US died during that one.

2890

How do we know that the coronavirus hasnā€™t been in the U.S. for the past few months but sick patients have been erroneously classified as having the ā€œcommon fluā€? I know many people over the last two months that have been hit hard by the ā€œfluā€.

My fear is that once we start testing patients for CV in the U.S. that the positive test results will climb exponentiallyā€¦i hope Iā€™m wrongā€¦

2891

the patients who were diagnosed in Washington were in a LONG TERM CARE NURSING HOME - i.e they were ALREADY suffering from serious medical aliments that meant they could no longer function or live on their own. This is a BIG DIFFERENCE from those of use who DO have medical issues, but do NOT NEED to live in a nursing home!!
so for the love of God! will some of you who are freaking out- please chill!

2892

I expect that the positive test results will climb exponentially, as they have in other countries. Disease spread is one of the classic examples of an exponential process.

2893

There are multiple tests for flu. So if a person dies of a flu it means jutst that - the person tested positive for one of flu strains. OTOH, if someone had flu-like symptoms and have not been tested for fluā€¦ we canā€™t say what exactly the person had (like my mysterious flu-like illness of 6 weeks ago that spoiled a Saturday and went away - why bother testing for anything ?).

2894

And as the results, the mortality rates will go down.

2895

Some of them were in the long term care facility, but others were not.

Five residents and one health worker at the nursing home have been hospitalized with COVID-19; one has died. Four other people in Washington, not associated with the nursing home, were diagnosed with COVID-19; one of them has also died.

2896

Not necessarily. I checked with some ID colleagues on this topic. Some of the counting includes suspected flu deaths. They were also ruling out CoV in differentials in January to mid February if there was no travel from China. I think the Fred Hutch scientist (that recognized the mutational signature in the Washington isolates) commented as much in his Twitter thread, suggesting the early spread was being missed because the criteria ruled it out. I believe flu deaths are up in 2020. Not saying this is all due to the novel CoV, but I wouldnā€™t be surprised if some were mixed in there. Weā€™ll know a lot more in the coming weeks with local health agencies able to move more quickly with their own testing. Maybe some will do retrospective analyses. The speed at which the King county team got sequences after getting the positives was impressive, but also indicative of what many places in the US are capable of if there isnā€™t a bottleneck (as there was with diagnostic assay - and I speak from direct experience in developing assays to quantify vRNA at low levels).

2897

So @ridingthewave, youā€™re hypothesizing that there have been not only covid cases, but covid deaths, that we have mistakenly ascribed to some other cause?

The retrospective analyses could be interesting. Pretty obviously those ten Washington cases are not all the Washington cases, and the seven Santa Clara County CA cases are not all the Santa Clara cases.

2898

ā€œSuspectedā€ flu deaths are usually confirmed later to become official statistic. If I am not mistaken, the flu deaths reported by the CDC and local health departments include only confirmed flu cases.

Plus, the flu this year has been hitting the kids pretty hard. The coronavirus appears to be just the opposite.

2899

I know that at least two of the people on the Princess Cruise who tested positive for COVID19 also tested positive for the flu. ( Via David Abelā€™s YouTube channelā€¦he and his wife are in hospital in Japan ). So it may be impossible to isolate cause of death in many cases.

2900

@Cardinal Fang , Iā€™m saying that I agree with the Fred Hutch scientist in that there are likely hundreds of unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infections in Washington state (his prediction) and possibly thousands on the West Coast (my gentle extrapolation based on the cases emerging in CA). The majority of folks present minor symptoms so write it off.

With the estimate that the virus has been spreading (community transmissions) for 6 weeks (maybe longer) also suggests that those that go to see their health care provider and had no history of recent overseas travel would likely be diagnosed as having something other than SARS-CoV-2. Flu tests are insensitive if performed in the wrong window, so sometimes a negative result isnā€™t always interpreted as conclusive. And there was no ability to easily and rapidly test for SARS-CoV-2. So yeah, it could have been misidentified in some instances.

In China, the transmission between humans has been hypothesized to have been occurring as early as October. Deaths started to be noticed in early December in Wuhan. Travel was only restricted later in January. A lot of infected people likely left Hubei province before then.