Coronavirus in the US

FWIW, the death rate in the US right now is approx 5.3% (12/226). Of course this is merely those who were tested and not the general population, but… just doing the math.

If “only” 5 or 10% of our population were to get this (mild to severe - just as our known cases are now - the unknown mild ones can be part of the 90 - 95% of the population who “don’t” get it), the math gets scary.

331 million… 5% “known” to get it = 16,550,000 5.3% = 877,150

Personally… I’d rather see it contained. I’m pretty sure those numbers “beat” the flu in whatever freaky “race” that is for those who compare.

I’ve seen estimates that 30-40% of the population could be likely to get it since it’s new, but I’d like to think those numbers are off or that many are in that “mild” group allowing my numbers to be down to 5% actually “getting” counted.

Anyone know what percentage of the population gets the flu on an average year? I really need to get to bed - was watching the MD news about their three, but tomorrow is a work day.

Washington state could be to North America for the coronavirus outbreak, as Italy is to Europe.

“This might not be a thoughtful, contemplative man you should trust with your financial decisions.”
MIGHT not be???
ye gods, anyone talking financial advice from THIS guy would be better off listening to a baboon!!

BHUTAN - Bhutan announces first case - 76-year-old American tourist who entered the country in early March after traveling in India.

CHINA - "A Chinese researcher has told the People’s Daily that Wuhan will see no new cases by the end of this month. He also said that the rest of China, except Hubei, can begin ‘taking off their masks’ by the end of this month and return to normalcy.

China on Friday reported 143 new cases of the virus, up from 139, bringing the total number of cases in mainland China to 80,552. The death toll rose by 30 and stands at 3,042 as of the end of Thursday.

Gansu province reported 11 new cases, all passengers from Iran. All 311 passengers on the flight from Iran have been now been quarantined in Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu, according to CCTV. (Guardian)" (Guardian)

Maybe China’s the place to be. Seriously though, I’ve been having thoughts on how this could position China well for economic advantages. If other countries are monkeying about with locking down the spread, and China recovers and comes out the other side while the rest of the world is dealing with it…plus, it is apparent from reading that China’s technological and medical abilities are pretty remarkable. Just some musings.

So, positive on the tail end of a 14 day window… assuming they were infected abroad and not while back in the US.

@bluebayou I stand by my original post that employer policies can drive whether sick employees feel compelled to go to work.

@ucbalumnus Thank you for pointing out that it does make a difference whether the employer adds to vacation days when they remove sick days. As I stated, for H and his coworkers, they took away days and did not replace them. That is definitely not the same as having a “bank” of days to use for everything.

Maybe (hopefully) employers feel differently in the face of Covid-19, but past actions of many were different than their talk. They want the work done, period, and lots of jobs cannot be done from home.

For the most part, we are only testing those with symptoms here in the US, so the denominator is not reliable. We don’t have enough data in the US right now to estimate a morbidity rate. Honestly, I wouldn’t read into or worry about US numbers because it is just too early. Use the broader numbers from other countries and WHO’s estimate.

I just posted that a WA state resident was found positive in British Columbia so I think there is some truth to this.

We have no clue what the death rate will be in the US since there are likely so many undiagnosed people. The closed group of 1000 people in quarantine around the New Rochelle lawyer will give us a better idea of how this virus will affect healthy American with good healthcare available. The lawyer himself is a an anomaly in that he has a known respiratory health issue, which is likely why he was even diagnosed.

I hope that those with health issues are not in this circle. Don’t need them in these stats as we already know that this is deadly to that sector of the population. Am also hoping that damages not severe for most people in the circle. That info will give perspective to how damaging this disease is to most folks

Glad to be in WA right now. First in, first out. I’d rather be done with this crap sooner. :slight_smile:

@thumper1. My office just got a similar letter from our hospital to post. Same type and no Washington State. I think next week we will have to just do our own and make additions to it. But it’s a start.

The US military is preparing for a “second wave” of coronavirus cases by next winter

"While it has yet to be seen whether the coronavirus will recede as temperatures increase in the northern hemisphere (and cases in tropical Singapore and southern hemisphere Australia may suggest the virus isn’t too sensitive to hot weather), some researchers have warned it could become a perennial winter threat.

Speaking at a Pentagon briefing Thursday, Nelson Michael, the director for infectious disease research at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, said that efforts to develop vaccines and an effective treatment plan might not be quick enough to wipe out the virus before the “second wave” next winter.

“This is a respiratory virus and they always give us trouble during cold weather, for obvious reasons. We’re all inside, the windows are closed, etcetera, so we typically call that the influenza or the flu season,” Nelson said.

He predicted the coronavirus may behave like the flu and give us “less trouble as the weather warms up,” but, he cautioned, it tends to come back when the weather gets cold again.

“This is why it’s really important to understand that a lot of what we’re doing now is getting ourselves ready for what we’re calling the second wave of this,” Nelson warned.

“We hope it doesn’t happen. If you remember SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), SARS came and went very quickly. We can’t count on that. We have to be ready that even if this epidemic begins to wane, we have to be ready for next winter when it may come back again.”" (CNN)

Trump admits coronavirus “might” impact US economy

"Donald Trump has admitted that the coronavirus “might have an impact” on the US economy but said it would pass, Reuters reports.

The US president has previously sought to play down the effects of the outbreak and predicted last week that the US stock market would bounce back after losses last week.

But asked at his first town hall meeting of the 2020 election season in Scranton, Pennsylvania if the outbreak would hurt the economy, he said:

“It certainly might have an impact. At the same time, I have to say people are now staying in the United States spending their money in the US, and I like that.

“It’s going to all work out. Everybody has to be calm. We have plans for every single possibility and I think that’s what we have to do. We hope it doesn’t last too long."…

“I think people are viewing us as having done a very good job. What we have to do is do a professional job. Nobody is blaming us for the virus,” he said. “This started in China.”" (Guardian)

.

So…is travel to Washington State not advised??

CANADA - 9 new cases for a total of 46.

Canada reports first presumptive positive case in Alberta, plus 8 more cases in British Columbia

"The Canadian province of Alberta has announced its first presumptive positive case of coronavirus, according to the provincial website.

The patient is a woman in her 50s who was aboard the Grand Princess Cruise Ship in California, and has been isolated since February 28, said Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw. She is now recovering at home.

Officials are asking anyone that was aboard the ship to stay home for at least 14 days.

Meanwhile, at least eight new cases have been confirmed in the province of British Columbia, said Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry on Thursday night.

Four of them – two men and two women, aged between their 20s to 60s – all lived in the household with a man in his 60s who had traveled from Iran.

The other four cases have no connection to any previous cases.

Two individuals returned from recent travel to Iran. Another is a resident of Seattle, and was visiting her family in the region. The last is a person whom was found to be positive as the hospital was routinely checking for influenza. Officials are identifying her as a community case and are investigating." (CNN)

As of now, we can’t even test all those with symptoms. Many hospitals around the country (including many here in NJ) still don’t have the ability to administer the test. Suspicious cases are told to self-quarantine instead.

Yup. Meanwhile in China, they are testing everyone coming through their airports. Other countries test hundreds and thousands per day.

“I’ve been having thoughts on how this could position China well for economic advantages. If other countries are monkeying about with locking down the spread, and China recovers and comes out the other side while the rest of the world is dealing with it.”

The problem with that thinking is it does not take into account that this pandemic , if it turns into one, will negatively affect BOTH supply AND demand around the world in a big way, which will not be easy to fix .
So if China recovers -health wise, but the demand for the products it exports and the services it offers drops through the floor, due to the large number of bankruptcies of businesses and the resulting slowdown of spending by individuals across the globe due to large increases in unemployment, it could be worse for BOTH China and the rest of the world than the Great Recession ever was.
Sorry the be the voice of doom, but some economics are saying just that.

"We have plans for every single possibility "
all evidence to the contrary…

True, but China also knows how to play the long game - setting themselves up for down the road.

Yes, that’s how it appears. It’s interesting to note that they were contacted by authorities, who were aware of their travel and asked them to get tested. Here is an article with better summary than mine. I’m curious if they might have been on a group tour and whether someone else had tested positive prior to them, which would then have led authorities to contact others who traveled in the same group? Just guessing, but we will learn more in the next few days.

https://www.capitalgazette.com/maryland/bs-hs-coronavirus-wrap-up-20200306-ipbh7t5r4zhxpidx3kgeiq3seu-story.html

“In the US, an employee at Seattle’s CenturyLink Field stadium has tested positive for coronavirus, ESPN reports. The employee worked at a February 22 XFL Seattle Dragons home game, “but as of now, no games scheduled to be played at the facility have been canceled,” according to local health officials.” (Guardian)