Coronavirus in the US

With understanding that this question is somewhat paradoxical, are there any reliable predictions as to what may happen with the virus as the temperatures rise in the spring/summer, given that we are seeing cases in FL, the Caribbean, southern California and the southern hemisphere, where temperatures are already warmer?

This to me is a problem. CNBC: Trump says, ‘Anybody who wants a test gets a test’ after Pence says US can’t meet coronavirus testing demand.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/trump-anybody-who-wants-a-test-gets-a-test-amid-shortage-for-coronavirus.html

Of course it’s a problem because it’s not true.

In NY there is a protocol for who can be tested.

testing for COVID-19 shall be authorized by a health care provider when:
¡ An individual has come within proximate contact (same classroom, office, or gatherings) of another person known to be positive; or
¡ An individual has traveled to a country that the CDC has issued a Level 2 or Level 3 Travel Health Notice, and shows symptoms of illness; or
¡ An individual is quarantined (mandatory or precautionary) and has shown symptoms of COVID-19 illness; or
¡ An individual is symptomatic and has not tested positive for any other infection; or
¡ Other cases where the facts and circumstances warrant as determined by the treating clinician in consultation with state and local department of health officials

https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/Interim_Testing_Guidance_COVID-19.pdf#_blank

.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-new-york-health-insurance/n-y-travel-insurance-to-cover-coronavirus-in-cancel-for-any-reason-policies-gov-cuomo-says-idUSKBN20T2ZD

That’s the EASIEST place to keep them, not the BEST, unless one’s goal is to have a lot more get infected. We learned that through Diamond Princess. Then they all needed quarantining when they got off the ship anyway. It wasn’t avoided.

Soccer players in quarantine after former Denmark international tests positive for coronavirus
From CNN

A former Denmark football international recently traveled to Amsterdam and there in the Dutch city he contracted coronavirus.

Thomas Kahlenberg, who has represented his country at the 2010 World Cup, then returned to Denmark and went to watch his old club Brøndby play against Lyngby at Brøndby Stadium last weekend.

It’s a series of events that has Danish health authorities scrambling to find out who the 36-year-old has been in contact with. It’s also as case that demonstrates the myriad challenges posed to health authorities as they try to get a grip on the outbreak.

“The authorities are now calling on the individual fans who, during Thomas Kahlenberg’s visit to Brøndby Stadium, have been in direct physical contact with Thomas Kahlenberg, including his visit to the Fan Zone, Michael Laudrup-Lounge and reception at Brøndby Stadium,” said a statement on the Brøndby website.

“The Danish Patient Safety Board (DPSB) must map everyone who has been in direct physical contact with Thomas Kahlenberg to prevent more people from getting the disease.”

Head of Italy’s co-governing Democratic Party tests positive for coronavirus
From CNN

Nicola Zingaretti – the head of Italy’s co-governing Democratic Party (PD) – has announced that he has tested positive for coronavirus, confirming in a video statement on Saturday that he is now in self-isolation.

Zingaretti, who is also the President of the Lazio region in Italy, called on citizens not to panic and said he will “set a good example by following the instructions” of health officials.

Grand Princess passenger “airlifted” from cruise ship
From CNN

"One passenger aboard the Grand Princess was airlifted from the stranded cruise ship and flown back to San Francisco, another person on board told CNN.

Steven Smith told CNN’s Michael Holmes that the ship’s captain made the announcement over the an internal public address system.

“The captain came on a few minutes ago with another announcement that a helicopter was just dispatched to the ship to drop off some supplies and to pick up a passenger who needed medical attention and they flew that person back to San Francisco,” said Smith.

“They do not know what they’re going to do, where they’re going to have us berth. Right now we don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” Smith went on to say in the interview. "

Hong Kong says 17 people tried to escape quarantine
From CNN

"Sophia Chan, the Secretary for Food and Health, said…said 17 people were trying to leave the city but were stopped at the borders by Immigration Department staff. They were then sent to the government’s designated quarantine facilities.

She added two people were charged and police submitted evidence of another seven cases to the Department of Justice, while the remaining cases are under investigation.

Under the current policy, people entering Hong Kong from mainland China are required to be quarantined at home and forbidden from leaving the city."

There are now more than 7,000 cases of the novel coronavirus in South Korea

274 additional cases reported (448 in the past 24 hours), bringing the national total to 7,041. 5 more deaths bringing the total to 48 fatalities.

MALTA - 1st confirmed case.

NYC complains to CDC: New York City has urgently requested more resources from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to the NYT. In a letter to the CDC, New York authorities complained that “the slow federal action on this matter has impeded our ability to beat back this epidemic."

The city also asked for additional testing kits, according to the New York Times, noting the two previously provided kits “do not meet the needs of New York City, America’s most populated city with 8.6 million (population).”

“With multiple positive cases, NYC needs maximum testing capacity to enable successful implementation of the public health strategies that best protect New Yorkers,” Perea-Henze wrote. “The importance of NYC having additional testing kits and expanding our testing capacity cannot be overstated." (CNN)

"A woman in her 50s who was a staff member at Chicago’s Vaughn Occupational High School tested positive for the coronavirus on Friday.

In the wake of the diagnosis, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) sent out a letter on Friday evening to parents to say that they will be supporting the staff and students of Vaughn.

The employee had been a passenger on board the Grand Princess cruise ship, disembarking on February 21.

CPS said while the development was concerning, “at the moment this remains an isolated incident and public health experts believe the immediate health risk to the general public remains low.” CPS said it was not considering closing schools at this time, based on the recommendations of local health authorities." (CNN)

Utah’s first coronavirus patient was only told about cruise ship outbreak after they got home

"The first patient to be diagnosed with coronavirus in Utah didn’t know that there had been an outbreak among their fellow Grand Princess cruise ship passengers until they returned home.

The Utah Department of Health said in an earlier news release that the resident had contracted the coronavirus while onboard the Grand Princess, which is anchored off the coast of California under quarantine.

Utah state officials said that the cruise line informed the patient of the outbreak after they got home, and then the passenger went to a clinic to be checked.

State epidemiologist Angela Dunn said there were other Utah residents on the cruise, and they are reaching out to those passengers to encourage them to watch for potential symptoms.

People who live with the confirmed patient are also being tested for the coronavirus, and they are looking for other people who were in close contact." (CNN)

University of Southern California temporarily moves classes online next week due to coronavirus

"The University of Southern California (USC) has announced that classes will temporarily move online from March 11 to 13, due to the coronavirus outbreak.

“We will replace in-person classes with online lectures & seminars to test our readiness should we need to take stronger action for health & safety. The campus will remain fully open and functional at this time,” the university said in a tweet.
According to a statement sent out to the USC community, this is a campus-wide test in case longer term home classes are ever needed.

“We need to test our technical capabilities to ensure academic continuity in an online environment should there be a disruption,” said the university.
The school confirmed that there are no cases of the coronavirus on campus and that the university is fully functional. Campus events are scheduled to take place as planned and employees are expected to be at work, according to the statement. (CNN)

California’s Alameda County confirms 2nd case of coronavirus, a passenger on Grand Princess cruise

"A new case of the novel coronavirus from a passenger who was on the now-quarantined Grand Princess cruise ship has been confirmed in Northern California’s Alameda County.

The patient is an older adult who has underlying health conditions and is currently hospitalized…Their family members are now under quarantine.

Alameda County’s Public Health Department is urging all residents who were on the Grand Princess cruise from February 11 to February 21 to get tested if they are experiencing any symptoms. " (CNN)

Pope Francis cancels public events to avoid spread of coronavirus
From CNN

"Pope Francis will deliver his weekly Sunday greeting to pilgrims in Rome via video, instead of at the window on St. Peter’s Square, the Vatican announced Saturday in a statement, citing concerns over the potential spread of coronavirus.

According to the Vatican, such measures are being take to “avoid the risk of spreading of the Covid-19 due to crowds gathering” around St. Peter’s Square.

The Pope, who was recently confirmed to have been suffering from a cold, will also conduct his weekly Wednesday audience via video link, rather than in St. Peter’s Square.

Meanwhile, all public participation at the Pope’s weekday private mass at the Vatican has been cancelled through March 15, the Vatican confirmed in its statement.

The Pope celebrates mass daily and normally a small group of visitors join him."

This seems to be getting out of control fairly quickly. Due to travel restriction and for sure the many more to come, it’s already affecting enrollment at major Universities. I bet many colleges are already scrambling to see how they will fill the classes come summer and fall. Chinese students will not be coming which is a major destination for American Institutions. Not surprising, I can see many kids getting off those deferred/waiting list as the middle of April approaches in order to fill those full paying spots. Many colleges are in preventive/panic mode (and they should) by canceling events such as students admitted days.

The last place I really want to be would are airports, concerts, sporting events., etc. I can not phantom the idea of going on a cruise. Every year, there are a few stories of people contracting some sort of virus. I have always been one of the skeptical people who do not buy into everything I read and how things get overblown. But the fact that we do not even have a way to get tested, it is extremely concerning. We can’t even get Purell at any supermarket which is extremely frustrating. Before you know it, we are not going to find Toilet paper, water, food, etc. Not to get political here, but that is pretty much how people in socialist Venezuela have lived for the past 20 years. Just can’t the basic things in life.

@doschicos family member completed the airport screening detail (now off the detail and back to regular position/duties) and 2 follow-up weeks of self-monitoring …luckier than LAX airport screeners who have now tested positive.

We have plane reservations for a number of upcoming events. I have the option of driving or flying to something additional in a few weeks. I think I will drive. Frankly, the airline costs have gone UP…not down as some folks thought.

I just hope all of this settles down before May and June college graduations…which surely are large events at most places.

I had friends in Ohio in 1970 who didn’t have a college graduation…

Slovakia identifies a symptom free “patient zero”

the son of the man who was diagnosed yesterday. The son, who had been to Venice, Italy between February 14 and 15 and did not show any symptoms of the virus, has been identified as “patient zero”

https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22352401/three-coronavirus-cases-in-slovakia.html

You can’t really beat Mother Nature but you can try to mitigate as best as possible. This is a virus that does not care who is in charge. It seems to me that all of the procedures and protocols are doing a great job of making people aware of this health issues. It will definately dampen the effects. But we are not capable of simply suffocating it with public policy. It’s a virus. It’s nature.

The real hope is the vaccine and the science.

And I do not believe in any way it will lead to the 80,000 deaths in the USA every really bad flu season.

That’s 80000.

It’s terrible for the potentially thousands of sick people who are at serous risk.

But I do wish we were tracking and commenting on the hundreds of cases that are cleared and recovered as closely as each single unfortunate death.

Diamond Princess death toll rises to seven
A former passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship who was infected with coronavirus has died, bringing the death toll from the ship to seven, Japanese public broadcaster NHK has said.

The passenger, a man from outside Japan, died on Friday, according to Reuters.

More cruise ship troubles…

"Earlier on Saturday, Malaysia turned away a cruise ship carrying around 2,000 passengers and crew from a port in Penang state, becoming the second country to bar the ship from docking after Thailand.

The Costa Fortuna was turned away from the popular resort island of Phuket in southern Thailand on Friday due to the presence of 64 Italians on board. Thai health authorities have officially designated Italy a dangerous communicable disease area because it has been hit hard by the coronavirus.

Phee Boon Poh, a Penang executive councillor, said he was informed by the Penang port that it had turned away the cruise liner Saturday morning following a directive from the transport ministry. He said the ship was now making its way to Singapore." (SCMP)

I believe it’s a potentially good idea to temporarily halt cruises. There are many that are almost all elderly people. Perhaps we can offer a tax beak to these companies so they don’t have to fire thousands of employees. But @doschicos reports are very troubling.

And when they land and go back home it’s like a perfect plan if you wanted to spread a virus. Incubate thousands at sea and then land and spread the whole country.

The airfares I gave been tracking have virtually all gone down. I am still watching some of them, but might grab some others.

Not just cruises, we should stop all large gatherings in confined spaces for the time being. That’s just good public health policy.