For what time period? A top “google it” result from Feb 21, 2020 said 4800 as of that date (and I’m sure it was an estimate).
Now assume coronavirus doesn’t get slowed down and affects the same number of people to the degree of getting counted as the flu currently does. Using today’s scope of death rates (0.1% death rate for flu and either 1 or 3.6% for Covid-19), that means roughly 48000 to 172,800 would have died from it.
This is why most experts consider trying to contain it such a big deal. If they’re successful then this goes down in history as a relatively “minor” blip. If they aren’t, life really changes. Instead of “just” the flu that folks have to worry about, there’s that and this.
Then too, I seem to recall some questioning if any of those deaths previously blamed on the flu were actually Covid-19. If they didn’t test, they don’t know.
Is Rabbi Fink at both at Young Israel and also teaches at Yeshiva? They only today (I believe) has affirmatively announced (on the Sabbath, no less, but health supercedes all else) that he tested positive, and news says he is in critical condition (that is the upddated info)
@doschicos and others. Thanks for updating. Add me to those who keep using this thread for updates as things posted usually have reputable sources and it helps me consider aspects like our upcoming travel plans.
If anyone is finding themselves panicking over reading the thread, I’m not seeing it in the posts. I agree with others about suggesting not reading it as a help.
Canadian officials confirmed six new cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia on Saturday, bringing the country-wide total to 57.
"Two of the new cases were passengers on the Grand Princess cruise ship from Feb 11 – 21, Adrian Dix, minister of health, and Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer said in a press statement Saturday.
Two other cases are residents of a long-term care facility in Vancouver.
“These cases were identified as part of an outbreak assessment at the facility in response to a staff member testing positive for COVID-19,” the statement says, adding that all residents of the facility have now been screened.
One of the cases is a man described to be in his 50s who recently traveled to Iran, and another is a woman in her 50s, described his “close household contact” of the man who recently traveled to Iran." (CNN)
@doschicos well, that’s what I get for going out to dinner yesterday, to a birthday lunch today, and am about to head out to dinner tonight. Hard to keep up.
That said, I did thing the fact that the rabbi was in critical condition was new, but… probably not.
70 Life Care Center employees show symptoms of coronavirus, spokesperson says
From CNN
"Seventy employees at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, are showing symptoms of novel coronavirus, according to Tim Killian, spokesperson for the facility.
There were 180 staff members employed at Life Care Center as of February 19.
Employees showing symptoms have been asked not to return to work, Killian said at a briefing on Saturday.
There were 120 residents at the facility on February 19, 54 residents have since been transferred to various hospitals, Killian said.
All current residents are confined to their rooms, Killian added.
On Thursday, the facility received 45 coronavirus tests, the results of which are still pending, according to Killian."
So, that’s 39% of staff showing symptoms. And surely some will be asymptomatic.
Not sure why they aren’t tested EVERY single resident and staff member. And why did they wait until Thursday? Testing shortage, some other reason?
Three South American countries announce new round of coronavirus cases
From CNN
Brazil, Chile and Paraguay all announced new cases of the coronavirus on Saturday.
Paraguay
Paraguay’s health ministry announced the country’s first case of the novel coronavirus. The health ministry wrote on its official Twitter account that the case is a young Paraguayan national who came from Ecuador and who is now in good health and in home quarantine.
Brazil
Four more cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in Brazil, according to the country’s health ministry, bringing the national total to 17.
The new cases include three people in Sao Paulo and one in Rio de Janeiro. The health ministry said all of the new cases were imported.
Chile
A 20-year-old who recently traveled in Europe, including in Spain, tested positive for coronavirus in Chile, according to the country’s health ministry.
The case is the seventh in Chile, the ministry said.
@jym626, from the local news here in Westchester, Rabbi Fink is asymptomatic in home quarantine - the original patient, the lawyer, is in critical condition. And his condition has been reported as improving in some other sources.
Huh! Last I heard Rabbi Fink tested positive but was doing well in quarantine. The NewRo lawyer at the center of all of this was in serious condition at NY Presby, but last I heard he was doing much better. I had not heard or read anywhere that anyone in the New Ro Wykagyl cluster Is in critical condition
** 5 new cases in MA **
The total presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 has risen from seven on Friday to 12 on Saturday, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. 1 officially confirmed (by CDC) case. Total: 13
Of the five newest cases, three of the patients, “had a direct connection to the Biogen employee conference.” Another of the patients had recently traveled to northern Italy while the final case is still being investigated by Mass. DPH.
Four of the five patients are from Middlesex County. Mass. DPH says the Middlesex County cases involve a woman in her 40s, a woman in her 50s, a man in his 40s and a man in his 60s. The fifth patient is a man in his 60s from Berkshire County.
Yes, I believe there’s still a shortage of testing kits. According to a rough transcription of a CDC conference call on 3/5, patients are prioritized for the test as follows:
In-hospital patients
Suspected cases meeting CDC guidelines
Older patients (especially those over 65) with other complicating health issues
CDC provides additional medical staff to Life Care Center in Washington
From CNN
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has provided “extra nurses, practitioners and doctors” to the Life Care Center, according to Tim Killian, the center’s spokesperson in Kirkland, Washington.
“The amount of work and stress that these staff and employees and caregivers here are under is tremendous,” Killian said. “They truly are heroes.”
More news on the Egyptian ship:
Quarantined Egyptian cruise ship has 45 coronavirus cases
From CNN
"A quarantined cruise ship in Egypt carrying 171 people now has 45 confirmed cases of coronavirus, according to state-run Al-Ahram news agency.
The Luxor Nile traveled from Aswan to Luxor, where it is now docked.
Of the 45 people infected, 19 were from other countries besides Egypt, said Egypt’s health minister Hala Zayed.
“They [all the recently-announced cases] are now on their way to be isolated in a hospital in Marsa Matrouh,” Zayed said.
The new cases aboard the cruise bring the total number of cases in Egypt to 48, according to Al Ahram. "
I’m trying to keep my worry in check because as a former New Yorker, I know New Rochelle very well, having often visited friends there many times; even having driven past the synagogue more times than I can remember. Even closer to home, I have relatives in Seattle, including a senior citizen whom I asked to forgo her usual water aerobics exercise class for the time being. The pool is located at a middle school.
CPAC attendee tested positive for coronavirus
From CNN
"One of the attendees at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, tested positive for coronavirus, the American Conservative Union said in a press release Saturday.
President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials attended the conference, though the ACU says the attendee did not come into contact with Trump or Pence. The attendee also did not attend events in the main hall, the release said.
The ACU said the Trump Administration “is aware of the situation.” The exposure occurred prior to the conference, the ACU added.
"A New Jersey hospital tested the person, and CDC confirmed the positive result. The individual is under the care of medical professionals in the state of New Jersey, and has been quarantined.” "
(that is the upddated info)