Coronavirus in the US

Hopefully it’s OK that I share this here? This was posted in a closed FB science group:

"geared toward the health professional but feel free to share widely.

I attended the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7. In attendance were physicians from Santa Clara, San Francisco and Orange Counties who had all seen and cared for COVID-19 patients, both returning travelers and community-acquired cases. Also present was the Chief of ID for Providence hospitals, who has 2 affected Seattle hospitals under his jurisdiction. Erin Epson, CDPH director of Hospital Acquired Infections, was also there to give updates on how CDPH and CDC are handling exposed health care workers, among other things. Below are some of the key take-aways from their experiences.

  1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myaglias, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.
  2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is <=2%, interpret that to mean if you have a positive test for another respiratory virus, then you do not test for COVID-19. This is based on large dataset from China.
  3. So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality.
  4. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease seem to progress with variable rates to ARDS and acute respiratory failure requiring BiPAP then intubation. There may be a component of cardiomyopathy from direct viral infection as well. Intubation is considered “source control” equal to patient wearing a mask, greatly diminishing transmission risk. BiPAP is the opposite, and is an aerosol generating procedure and would require all going into the room to wear PAPRs.
  5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use. However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo). Others have tried Kaletra, but didn’t seem to be much benefit.
  6. If our local lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results. Ordering physician would be responsible for coordinating with the Health Department regarding isolation.
  7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days). After return to work, all wore surgical masks while at work until the 14 days period expired. All had temperature check and interview with employee health prior to start of work, also only until the end of the 14 days. Obviously, only asymptomatic individuals were allowed back.
  8. Symptom onset is between 2-9 days post-exposure with median of 5 days. This is from a very large Chinese cohort.
  9. Patients can shed RNA from 1-4 weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unknown if the presence of RNA equals presence of infectious virus. For now, COVID-19 patients are “cleared” of isolation once they have 2 consecutive negative RNA tests collected >24 hours apart.
  10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, tetemedicine, “car visits”, telephone consultation hotlines.
  11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.
  12. Health Departments state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.

Martha Blum, MD PhD"

@yucca10 Very informative. Although I admit to googling at least 5 terms. :slight_smile:

I had to google the whole thing practically.

@yucca10 Do you know why they are thinking remdesivir prescribing/usage will be shut down, and only accessible if patient enrolls in an RCT?

So here’s our sort of personal predicament that is about to play out all over the US.

Mr R and I are solidly middle income but we have more breathing room than the average family. Not much, but more than the $400.

His work sent out an email today that said no one with a cough, fever, etc should come in - but they don’t say how long they should stay out. He was planning on going tomorrow since his fever is gone (at least with meds) but he has some lingering cough that is mostly gone with the cough suppression meds.

He doesn’t want to go back and logically shouldn’t but he has virtually no PTO and the literally few days he has we were planning on using for his “paternity leave.” 2 weeks out of work followed by 2 weeks shortly for his leave - of which about 3 days will be paid - is not doable.

So what do we do? It’s very easy for people who make significantly more than we do to say “stay home until you’re symptom free!” but the economic reality for most of us is that it’s just not possible. We’d both love him to stay home until we’re sure he’s no longer contagious but especially with the baby due any time, we can’t afford that income crunch - especially if he’s feeling better.

This needs to be addressed as much as the test shortages.

PANAMA - 1st case confirmed.

SOUTH KOREA - 200 new cases in the past 24 hours for a total of 7,513 and 4 new deaths totaling 54.

There are now 717 coronavirus cases in the United States
From CNN

There are 717 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, according to state and local health agencies, governments and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

According to the CDC, there are 49 cases from citizens who were repatriated from abroad – three from Wuhan, the pandemic’s epicenter, and 46 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.

Twenty-one cases have also been identified in connection with another cruise ship, the Grand Princess, which arrived in port in Oakland, California on Monday.

According to CNN’s tally of cases that have been detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems, there are 647 cases in 36 states and the District of Columbia.

This includes presumptive positive cases that tested positive in a public health lab and are pending confirmation from the CDC, and confirmed cases that have received positive results from the CDC.

Here’s the state-by-state breakdown, as of Monday night Eastern Time:

Arizona: 6 cases
California: 105 cases, 2 deaths
Colorado: 11 cases
Connecticut: 2 cases
District of Columbia: 1 case
Florida: 14 cases, 2 deaths
Georgia: 12 cases
Hawaii: 2 cases
Illinois: 11 cases
Indiana: 4 cases
Iowa: 8 cases
Kansas: 2 cases
Kentucky: 6 cases
Louisiana: 1 case
Maryland: 6 cases
Massachusetts: 41 cases
Minnesota: 2 cases
Missouri: 1 case
Nebraska: 3 cases
Nevada: 4 cases
New Hampshire: 4 cases
New Jersey: 11 cases
New York: 142 cases
North Carolina: 7 cases
Ohio: 3 cases
Oklahoma: 1 case
Oregon: 14 cases
Pennsylvania: 10 cases
Rhode Island: 3 cases
South Carolina: 7 cases
Tennessee: 4 cases
Texas: 13 cases
Utah: 1 case
Vermont: 1 case
Virginia: 2 cases
Washington state: 180 cases, 22 deaths
Wisconsin: 2 cases

@privatebanker wrote:

“Not sure of the number and it may be a drop in the bucket, but I’m glad places like Walter Reed and other military hospitals are lot less crowded now than they were a few years ago. Maybe there is some capacity for clusters and hot spots for some medical help to be sent via the military if needed.”

I’ve posted a few articles up thread that address this. Two points to keep in mind:

The military is in the midst of highly disruptive changes in terms of the size of the active duty medical corps, which is being downsized by 18,000 medical personnel. While this plan is technically still being debated at the congressional level, I can say definitely that residency training programs at specifically Walter Reed are already being downsized. Residency programs that have had, say, 8 residents per year will have 6 in the upcoming year. Staff is stretched quite thin, as active duty physicians and nurses are not being replaced as they retire or leave active duty.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/03/05/service-surgeons-general-voice-concern-about-military-health-care-reforms/

https://www.health.mil/News/Articles/2020/02/25/DHA-Director-discusses-progress-vision-for-future

Secondly, NATO has not cancelled exercises in Europe which include 20,000 troops from the continental US and 9,000 US troops based in Europe.

“Defender-Europe 20 and six other linked exercises in April and May will see the largest deployment of U.S.-based forces to Europe for an exercise in the more than 25 years. The exercises will involve more than 37,000 participants, including 20,000 troops from the continental U.S. as well as 9,000 U.S. service members based in Europe. Around 8,000 soldiers from other countries will also participate in the exercise, including almost 3,000 from Poland.“

At least two current Covid-19 cases in the DC area are service members who returned from Europe, and at least one case is a service member stationed in Korea. I would anticipate that there will be some cases of Covid-19 developing from the 20,000 troops deploying to Europe this spring.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thedefensepost.com/2020/03/05/nato-exercises-coronavirus-defender-europe/amp/

All of that is to say that Military Medicine may be pretty busy as this plays out. It’s patient population tends to be young and healthy, but they will be popping positive and already stretched Military Treatment Facilities are responsible for their active duty, family and retirees first and foremost.

@Mwfan1921 I just cut and pasted here, but my guess would be that Gilead needs more test subjects, and who will agree to participate in a drug-placebo test if they could just get the drug?

Thanks for post 4844 @yucca10! I forwarded it to many in my world who are healthcare providers and in the respiratory field. Great info!

They’ve thanked me and are forwarding it.

"The Seattle-area nursing home at the epicenter of one of the biggest coronavirus outbreaks in the United States said on Monday it had no kits to test 65 employees showing symptoms of the respiratory illness that has killed at least 13 patients at the long-term care center, Reuters reports.

The staff in question, representing more than a third of the Life Care Center’s 180 employees, are out sick with symptoms consistent with coronavirus, and a federal strike team of nurses and doctors is helping to care for 53 patients remaining in the center.

With the facility in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland accounting for more than half of the known U.S. coronavirus deaths, and all its patients tested, it was unclear why Life Care lacked diagnostic kits for staff, even as the University of Washington offered to process test samples for them.

Twenty-six of 120 patients who were residing at the nursing home as of Feb. 19 have since died, with 13 of 15 autopsies carried conducted to date confirming coronavirus was the cause, Life Care officials said on Monday.

Among 53 residents still in the facility as of Monday, results for 31 out of 35 tested have so far come back positive for the coronavirus, they said." (Guardian)

Agreed…and who would join the NIH trial if there is a 50% chance of getting placebo (not sure about that % though)?

For marketed drugs, docs can prescribe them to any patient for any disease, whether FDA approved for that disease or not.

Sometimes insurer payment can be an issue for non-approved diseases, but it would be difficult for Gilead, or the government, to shut down physician prescribing of remdesivir for coronavirus patients, ongoing trials or not.

Post #4844 is appreciated.

Not sure exactly what the detrimental side effects of remdesiver might be, but if I have critical pneumonia sometime in the future, I don’t suppose I’ll really worry about them.

A Boeing employee has contracted the coronavirus

"A worker at the Boeing factory in Everett, Washington, has tested positive for novel coronavirus, according to a statement from the company.

Boeing says the worker is now isolated and receiving treatment. Other workers who were in contact with the infected individual were told to self-quarantine at home, and the work area is being thoroughly cleaned.

The Everett facility produces Boeing’s wide-body jets – including the 747 and the 787 Dreamliner – according to the company website.

The hardest-hit state: Everett is located about 20 miles from the Life Care Center retirement home in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland" (CNN)

SEC asks DC employees to work from home over potential coronavirus case
From CNN

The Securities and Exchange Commission is asking all personnel based at its headquarters to work from home due to an employee who may have coronavirus, according to an SEC spokesperson, becoming the first federal agency to ask its Washington employees to stay home.

“Late this afternoon, the SEC was informed that a Washington, DC Headquarters employee was treated for respiratory symptoms today (Monday),” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The employee was informed by a physician that the employee may have the coronavirus and was referred for testing.” The spokesperson added, “Amongst other precautions, the SEC is encouraging Headquarters employees to telework until further guidance.”

Wouldn’t the pharmaceutical company be willing to provide gratis? After all, it is good testing and info for them, right?

Interesting math from dr. Paul E Sax

“…Consider — today’s report shows 484 cases reported with 20 deaths. Remember that these tests were done mostly on the sickest people. That’s why our mortality rate is so high at 4.1%.

By contrast, consider South Korea, which already has widespread disease and an aggressive testing policy (they have apparently done over 140,000 tests). They have diagnosed 7,314 COVID-19 cases, with 50 deaths, for an estimated mortality rate of 0.6%.

If we apply that 0.6% mortality rate to the 20 deaths we’ve had here, this would mean there are already around 3,000 cases in the United States. We just haven’t been testing enough to find them…”

Full article here
https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/as-testing-ramps-up-diagnoses-of-coronavirus-disease-in-the-u-s-will-soon-increase-substantially-how-will-we-respond/2020/03/08/

@AsMother

Another update from CIEE regarding upcoming study abroad programs (but no mention of the biggest unknown - paying for unforeseen medical care in a foreign country):

"To help soften the uncertainty you may be experiencing, we are pleased to present CIEE’s Program Assurance Advantage to all students on all programs, effective immediately.

In the event CIEE cancels or suspends your program, the CIEE Program Assurance Advantage allows you to:

CHANGE TO AN EQUIVALENT PROGRAM AT A NEW LOCATION
At no additional cost, you can change your enrollment to a different program of the same length that is taught in another location.

DEFER YOUR PROGRAM TO AN EQUIVALENT TERM
At no additional cost, you can defer your participation in the program. If you are set to go abroad this fall, you can move it to spring. The same works for summer!

GET UP TO $500 IN AIRFARE REFUNDS FOR FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS OF CHANGES
In the event that your airline does not refund fees related to flight cancellations or changes, CIEE will refund up to $500.

RECEIVE A REFUND FOR ALL CIEE FEES
If you decide not to change or defer your program and wish to completely cancel your program, you receive a full refund for all CIEE Program Fees."

My bad…remdesivir is still a developmental drug…it is not marketed. So, Gilead can choose to not provide it to coronavirus patients. So far, they have provided it to at least one patient, on a ‘compassionate’ use basis.

Will be interesting to see what happens, if it is fast-tracked thru the development process and what type of manufacturing capability Gilead has for it.

County of Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) has 6 more cases today, and the first death. They previously advised people to avoid mass gatherings.

Tonight, they ordered all mass gatherings cancelled. No more weaseling out, San Jose Sharks. You can’t play hockey in front of fans. No more pussyfooting, Theatreworks (Tony Award winning live theater); your plays have been shut down.

Remdesivir was also actively used in Chinese cases with reportedly good results.

https://www.bellevuereporter.com/news/life-care-center-of-kirkland-breaks-silence-at-saturday-press-conference

What terrible mismanagement.