Absolutely they do. Perhaps we should look more at what we can do regarding these vulnerable people.
Commerce ceasing is going to cause misery on par or past what a 2% mortality will. Given that, Iâm leery of the idea that shutting down so much of day to day life is going to turn out to be the better choice.
On the other hand, itâs been done before, life went on, and in a few weeks maybe weâll find out exactly how contagious the kids are.
Until then, it seems kind of tiresome to keep beating the horse.
I guess it could be interesting in a couple of weeks if we could compare the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases in states that keep children out of school compared to states that donât. The data should be easy to analyze.
@marylandjoe You asked for evidence supporting school closings. I provided some.
So then you say ok, how about closing everything else that isnât absolutely necessary. If you look around, the closures/cancellations have been fast and broad. Sporting events. Theaters. Concerts. Business and personal gatherings. Some businesses are shutting down. Some are requiring people to work from home. Business travel is being restricted. So is personal travel by some companies (at least requiring quarantines if personal travel is to specified areas). Disney halting its tourism business without any known cases.
Ohioâs definition of a mass gathering is 100 people. 5 positive cases in the state as of this afternoon (though dept of health director believes more than 100,000 people in the state currently have contracted the virus). That order led to a rash of closings/cancellations in the state in the last 10 hours since it was issued this afternoon. More likely will follow.
Its all a balancing act. Do what you reasonably can to create distancing to flatten the curve and avoid overrunning the healthcare system. Flattening the curve though brings with it longer time for infections. But if the healthcare system isnât overrun, the result will be better (Italy seems to be the poster case right now for not wanting to overrun the healthcare system).
I understand that closing schools isnât popular. Reading threads on here about colleges going online shows you thatâs a decision which isnât popular. Closing K-12 is even less popular (other than maybe the kids who are jumping for joy). Listening to the radio tonight coming home from work, a 30+ year area host said that when the Browns left Cleveland, the show got the most calls. But todayâs order closing schools (and the mass gathering order) was a close second. Several irrate parents calling in.
But all of the closings/cancellations are unpopular with some groups of people. Disruption typically isnât popular. But sometimes its needed.
Shutting down modes of transmission - ie places where people interact - is helping the health-vulnerable.
It is, however, going to burden the financially-vulnerable. We need to pay attention to them too.
States arenât islands.
We can also learn the lessons of history and analyze the data it gives us:
https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/
Timing is key to how well these closures will work.
At the current rate, we will have 50,000+ cases in two weeks and 1.5 MM+ in a month. The current death rate seems to be about 2.3%. The only way to reduce mortality is to shut the country down. Completely. For two months.
I appreciate your information.
It is certainly a balancing act.
I agree, âflattening the curveâ could push down current cases while possibly extending the outcome.
I understand that may be better for health care resources.
Itâs interesting to hear the thought of 100,000 cases in Ohio.
Also, itâs not mutually exclusive. Measures ARE being taken to try to protect vulnerable people. The senior places have recommendations and action plans they are carrying out. The COPD and other lung health orgs are making suggestions and recommendations to their vulnerable people, including providing the CDC.gov website that has recommendations. Iâm sure other organizations are as well for cardiac patients and diabetics. It really takes the will of all and cooperation to make this work well.
It is inconvenient and worse for many but many of us are very afraid of how awful this will be for all if folks donât take the opportunity to try to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed now.
The residents inside Washington state nursing home have nowhere to go
At CNNâs coronavirus town hall, one viewer brought up the Life Care Center â the nursing home in Washington state at the heart of the outbreak there.
So far, 22 deaths in Washington state are associated with the nursing home. There are still 26 other infected residents living there. Twelve residents have tested negative, while nine more have results that are either pending or inconclusive.
âWhy hasnât the Life Care Center in Washington been evacuated?â one viewer asked. âShouldnât the staff be self-quarantining? The government is leaving these people to die.â
CNN National Correspondent Sara Sidner weighed in from Kirkland, Washington:
âThe number one the reason this nursing facility didnât evacuate and just move patients out and get rid of the staff, was that there was no one that was willing to take these patients,â Sidner said.
Hospitals didnât want to take patients unless they had very acute, life-threatening symptoms, because of the risk they could infect other patients who are already sick in the hospital, Sidner said. And the residentsâ families often arenât in a position to care for their medical needs â thatâs why these residents are in a nursing home in the first place.
âAnd with some of the patients testing positive for coronavirus, they didnât want to infect families and communities. There was nowhere else for the patients to go,â Sidner said. 
I never stated that states were islands.
I said it would be interesting to see how increase in rates compared in states that closed schools compared to states that didnât. All other things comparatively equal of course.
MODERATORâS NOTE: The bickering stops NOW.
CHINA - 8 new cases totaling 80,813 and 7 deaths totaling 3,176.
Most of the fatalities occurred in Hubei province. 64,111 have recovered. :love:
2% of the US population is seven and a half million people⊠Thatâs a lot of misery.
Letâs say half of the US gets COVID-19. (This is probably an underestimate) with a CFR of 2%. That means 1% of the population dies.
Now letâs compare that to the deadliest year on recent record with the flu and use above the extreme upper end of probable deaths that year - 100k out of about 320M people. .0003% of the population died.
1% vs .0003%. This will be a 3000% increase in deaths- from the upper extreme end of the deadliest flu year.
I think putting it in numbers terms can be helpful.
(I admit I have the flu and am tired. Iâll gladly fix my math if I made an oops.)
Even if only 20% of the country is infected and 2% die (could be higher given our health care system), that is over 1.3 million people. Still a lot of misery.
Itâs not a contest about which is worse - the sickness and death of people or a torched economy. They both will suck and cause a lot of grief and suffering. Many individuals and families will face both issues.
Thereâs a decimal point mislaid here. 100k/320M is .0003, which is 0.03%.
If 1% of the population died, that would be thirty times bigger, or 3000% as big.
Oops! Thanks CF. The 3000% increase was the important part and I was filling in the in-between numbers from memory. Poor choice.
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Follow-up to Michigan: governor is vowing to keep feeding kids who rely on school meals but no word on how.
My friends who are staff, but not teachers, at local schools are very worried. I hope this is addressed (both here and on a national scale).
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@artist2233 and others, a good clip with an ER doctor (head of Emergency Medicine at Langone NYU) on what you should do if you think you have COVID-19 symptoms:
If half of the US population got covid19, about 1 in 7 people aged 80 or older would die. Well, probably more, because there wouldnât be enough ventilators to go around, so 80-year-olds wouldnât get them. Call it 1 in 5, 20%.
Suddenly wiping out 20% of 80+ yo people would mean a lot of people youâve heard of would die.