@Tigerle - that struck me too. So many more cases in Germany than the US and so many fewer deaths. South Korea is similar. I hope it’s not just a glitch with numbers.
One of the reasons, we need more testing (besides isolating sick people, of course) is for the rest of the people to see that this is a real crisis. I cringe every time I see the numbers of confirmed cases to go up, but for some that’s the only way to get the message that this is indeed serious.
More testing → more positive cases → more worried people → more people that will start behaving responsibly
If people think this doesn’t involve them, that there are no or only few cases where they live, please have them look where WA or NY were just 2 weeks ago.
@NYGovCuomo
What we do next will have a massive impact on the trajectory of this virus in New York.
We can only maintain public health by STAYING APART.
The decision each of makes now will impact us all tomorrow. STAY HOME.
Not a math person here. I am trying to figure out a comparison as to where we are on the curve compared to countries where the outbreak has been widespread for a longer time. Comparing raw numbers is meaningless. I want to compare deaths and cases to the population. (I realize that the lack of testing skews these numbers).
Has anyone seen an article showing this?
This is from a few days ago, but discusses Germany’s approach to handling the outbreak.
"Germany has a widespread network of regional laboratories and was able to do extensive testing for coronavirus when it became known in recent weeks. It has one of the most expensive and extensive public healthcare systems in the world with national healthcare insurance for everyone.
Germany also is considered to have one of the world’s highest concentrations of hospitals — 1,900 for a population of 82 million. And workers, who traditionally see high levels of job security in the country, tend to stay home when they notice symptoms of an illness.
Some medical professionals and political leaders said in recent days that the number of people infected with the coronavirus and the resulting deaths are bound to increase substantially, but that Germany certainly has benefited from preparation and other factors."
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-10/germany-and-coronavirus
@TatinG - this link shows cases per million of population. You can look at the number of deaths and calculate from there. Scroll down a bit to the list of all the countries and it is on the far right.
I found some numbers. I took Italy’s death toll from March 5 (10 days ago). We are said to be 10 days behind Italy. On March 5, Italy had 148 deaths. The US has over 5 times the population of Italy. If the US were tracking Italy’s death rate, we would have 5 times Italy’s March 5 death toll by now or 740. We have 57.
So reason for hope that we are flattening the curve?
(And yes I realize that we have the advantage of a less congested populace and a younger demographic).
By all accounts, Germany has world class health care and more equipment than most. It also has 8 hospital beds per thousand vs less than 3 for the US.
Re: flattening the curve, I think you’d have to analyze those numbers by region. Rather than thinking of the whole US as being behind Italy by 10 days, one could look at how Seattle, NYC, and the SF Bay Area are doing in terms of case growth/mortality. (Seattle numbers are obviously also skewed by the Life Care facility outbreak.)
Top infectious disease expert warns multitudes could die if Americans don’t act
From CNN’s Kevin Bohn
When asked if hundreds of thousands of Americans could die from coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said “it could happen, and it could be worse."
Fauci’s comments were made this morning on CNN’s “State of the Union” where he also discussed how the challenge "is to try and make that not happen.”
“If we go about our daily lives and not worry about everything” then the death toll will be high," Fauci said. “People sometimes think that I’m overreacting. I like it when people are thinking I’m overreacting because that means we’re doing it just right.”
Some context: There are at least 2,826 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States as of Saturday evening, according to the state and local health agencies, governments and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Pence has not been tested for coronavirus
From CNN’s Kaitlan Collins
Vice President Mike Pence told reporters yesterday he would consult with the White House physician about whether he needed to be tested for coronavirus since President Trump was.
A White House official says he did consult and the doctor recommended that he didn’t need to be tested at this time based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.
TSA officer based in Orlando tests positive for coronavirus
From CNN’s Greg Wallace
An officer from the Transportation Security Administration based at the Orlando airport tested positive for coronavirus, according to the agency.
“TSA confirms that one Transportation Security Officer who works at Orlando International Airport has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. The officer is receiving medical care and all TSA employees they have come in contact with over the past 14 days are self-isolated at home," the TSA said in a statement. "Screening checkpoints remain open and the agency is working with the CDC, as well as the Orange County Public Health Department to monitor the situation as well as the health and safety of our employees and the traveling public. We will update as more information becomes available.”
This is the sixth TSA officer to test positive — four are based at San Jose, one is based in Fort Lauderdale and the one from Orlando.
Morocco to suspend international flights
From CNN’s Schams Elwazer
Morocco has decided to suspend all international flights to and from its territory “until further notice” as part of measures to tackle the coronavirus, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Sunday.
This announcement comes a day after the north African country said it was suspending all flights to and from Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Belgium.
Singapore announces further travel restrictions
From CNN’s Chandler Thornton
Singapore’s Ministry of Health announced they will implement stricter border measures for people traveling into the country, including imposing a 14-day mandatory self-quarantine for new visitors traveling from a bloc of East Asian countries, as well as Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Beginning Monday, people “entering Singapore with recent travel history to ASEAN countries, Japan, Switzerland, or the United Kingdom within the last 14 days will be issued with a 14-day Stay-Home Notice (SHN),” according to a press release from the Health Ministry on Sunday.
ASEAN is the Association of South East Asian Nations made up of 10 member nations from that region.
Travelers will also have to provide proof of where they stayed during the 14 days and may also be swabbed for coronavirus testing, “even if asymptomatic,” the press release read.
The Ministry also announced any short-term visitors “who are nationals of any ASEAN country will have to submit requisite information on their health to the Singapore Overseas Mission in the country they are resident before their intended date of travel.”
Finally, the Ministry asked all Singaporeans to “defer all non-essential travel abroad.”
Some context: These additional restrictions follow previous ones by the Singapore government including that starting March 15, all new visitors with recent travel history to France, Germany, Italy and Spain within the last 14 days would not be allowed entry or transit thru Singapore.
[Singapore can test people coming through airports. Think about that in comparison to the US.]
US treasury secretary downplays recession possibility
From CNN’s Sarah Westwood
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin downplayed the likelihood of an economic recession as American economy takes a beating from coronavirus, saying “I don’t think so” when asked about the prospect.
“This is a unique situation,” he told ABC’s “This Week" this morning. “Later in the year, obviously, the economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.”
In the interview, Mnuchin also defended President Trump’s Oval Office address this week despite its numerous inaccuracies.
“The President was very clear — he wanted to address a very important point, which was he made the move to shut down travel so that we shut down more cases coming in,” Mnuchin said.
Pressed on Trump’s misleading presentation of restrictions on travel from Europe, Mnuchin said, “I don’t think in an Oval Office address you can address every issue.”
Hong Kong urges citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Ireland, the US and UK
From CNN’s Chandler Thornton
Hong Kong has issued a “Red Outbound Travel Alert” on Ireland, United Kingdom and United States, urging its citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to these countries in response to the new cases of the novel coronavirus.
“The Red OTA urges members of the public planning to travel to the aforementioned countries to adjust travel plans and avoid non-essential travel,” according to a statement from Hong Kong’s government on Sunday.
The government statement also advised people to delay any non-essential travel in general outside of Hong Kong.
The regional testing labs in Germany would have zero effect on number of fatalities in terms of total numbers. I would think.
I think it’s a positive sign that perhaps Covid 19 will not have the higher fatality rate feared in countries with top health care systems and don’t get overrun. Italy is an example of being overridden.
Also our mortality rates have been skewed since the onset by the unfortunate cluster in the home for the sick and elderly.
I realize that this is scary.
We are a free and mobile society. The flip side to free choice is bad decision making on the personal level.
This is not a fiasco. This is not complete incompetence by the medical, scientific, public health and career logistics people. The state department career professionals Continue to talk to their counterparts. Ambassadors and their career staff continue to operate in country. Private companies are stepping up. Massive social distancing and changes to workplace environments have happened over night.
We have basically evacuated every college student in America in a week.
No one wants to unnecessarily add to the number of those who pass away each day… However for perspective 7500 people die every day in the USA. 52000 per week. 150.000 people per day globally.
Something so unique and challenging as a new and highly efficient virus is a challenge in a globalized environment.
It’s a massive challenge and everyone is working really hard trying to find quick solutions to extraordinary problems.
Imagine two weeks ago that we said we would basically evacuate every college student in America from campuses in a week. Shut down travel and get the public to be aware of basic public health.
When it snows in northeast there’s a run in milk and bread, it’s a known joke around my area. And it’s snows every year.
Improvements can be made across the board in any disaster. H1n1 infected 60mm people and killed thousands.
We will survive this together.
Long lines at Ohare? That’s almost every time I travel there and this is a monumental issue. Those who travel must simply be patient and wait for your plane.
It’s not good to be so close together but that’s air travel. We all have to make choices in these tough situations. It’s hard on folks.
I don’t know but are there any good signs? To me Germany’s low death toll, and the lessons from Asia are encouraging. Hopefully this will prove to be less fatal than feared when all is said and done. That’s my prayer.
We need to keep sick and elderly quarantined as the most important first steps. Hopefully we don’t overrun the health system even for a short while. If we avoid that, we have done something remarkable in a free and mobile society.
Ohio governor thinks it’s possible schools could be closed for the rest of the academic year
From CNN’s Amanda Watts
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine thinks it’s possible schools may be closed for the rest of the academic year, according to an interview he gave this morning on “State of the Union.”
“Absolutely. Look, the projections — and again, this is all projections, I’m just going by what medical experts are telling us. You know, this may not peak until the latter part of April or May. So we’ve informed the superintendents, while we’ve closed schools for three weeks, that the odds are this is going to go on a lot longer and it would not surprise me at all if schools did not open again this year,” DeWine said.
Top US infectious disease doctor doesn’t rule out supporting temporary national lockdown
From CNN’s Alison Main
The top infectious disease expert in the US did not rule out support a temporary national lockdown in an effort to curb the spread of coronavirus.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, would like to see a “dramatic diminution of personal interaction,” including interactions in bars and restaurants, according to an interview he did this morning on CNN’s “State of the Union."
“I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in restaurants and in bars. Whatever it takes to do that, that’s what I’d like to see,” Fauci said.
[ sounds like maybe Fauci is pushing for more? will leadership listen?]
This guy was just on Meet the Press blaming the feds for no direction. “well, the feds didn’t tell us to shut down major events like the St. Paddy’s Day parade, but we (finally) did.” However, he’s not stopping voting on Tuesday, not closing bars and restaurants.
Colorado Governor closed all ski hills. That is MAJOR as this is the biggest month of the years. Vail Associates closed all its areas in 15 states and 3 countries. I really don’t know how the feds could have ordered it.
UK advises against all but essential travel to the US
From CNN
The UK Foreign Office said Sunday that it was advising against “all but essential travel to the USA” in light of the travel restrictions placed by the US government on visitors from the UK.
“The FCO advise against all but essential travel to the USA, due to restrictions put in place by the US government with effect from 03:59 GMT 17 March in response to the outbreak of coronavirus,” the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said on its website.
The UK was initially excluded from travel restrictions introduced by the US, but Vice President Mike Pence announced Saturday that all travel from the United Kingdom and Ireland will also be suspended effective midnight on Monday.
Austria ramps up movement restrictions
From CNN
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz escalated the country’s responses to the coronavirus pandemic on Sunday.
Kurz announced major restrictions on movement in public spaces, urging Austrians to self-isolate. He also banned gatherings completely and put further limits on who can enter the country.
The measures will be based on a special law to be passed by the Austrian Parliament on Sunday, a government spokesperson told CNN.
“We have already announced that Austria must shut down to an emergency operation. We will also have to take further measures. Public gatherings will be completely prohibited for the time being,” Kurz said on Twitter.
The freedom of movement will be “massively restricted.” Sports grounds, playgrounds and other public meeting places will be closed completely.
Starting Tuesday, restaurants in Austria will be closed.
Entry requirements to Austria will be tightened further. Travellers from the UK, the Netherlands, Russia and Ukraine will no longer be allowed to enter Austria directly.
Flight connections to these countries will be discontinued.
In order to secure supplies in the long term, the retirement of military personnel is halted and a special task force will support the police.
Austria’s Ministry of Health said Sunday there were a total of 800 confirmed coronavirus cases in the country. So far one death has been reported.
UK may ask the elderly and vulnerable to self-isolate
CNN
The UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said Sunday the coronavirus outbreak is “the biggest public health emergency in a generation.”
“It calls for dramatic action, at home and abroad, of the kind not normally seen in peacetime,” Hancock said, writing in the Sunday Telegraph.
Speaking to Sky News later, Hancock added more details to his plan, announcing that over-70s will be asked to self-isolate “in the coming weeks” – and it could potentially last for months.
The UK government has so far adopted a laissez-faire approach to the outbreak. Unlike other countries hit by the novel coronavirus, the UK has yet to ban large-scale gatherings or closed schools, saying it does not believe those measures would stop the outbreak.
Hancock said the government will next week publish an emergency bill that will “give the government the temporary powers we will need to help everyone get through this.”
“The measures in it allow for the worst-case scenario,” he said.
Magical Realism in times of Covid-19? Nicaragua fights virus fears with massive public rallies
From CNN Español’s Daniel Silva in Miami and CNN’s Radina Gigova in Atlanta
While countries around the globe continue implementing unprecedented measures and ban large public gatherings to halt the spread of coronavirus, the government of Nicaragua has done just the opposite as part of its response to the pandemic.
In order to support those affected by the virus, Nicaragua’s government has organized massive public rallies across the country under the slogan “Love Walk in the Time of Covid-19,” resembling the title of the novel by Gabriel Garcia Marquez, “Love in the Time of Cholera.”
Hundreds of people took part in the rally in the capital Managua on Saturday and in rallies held simultaneously in other cities across the nation.
As of Saturday, Nicaragua’s Ministry of Health has not reported any positive cases. The ministry said “epidemiological surveillance” has been implemented at airports and borders, and 19 hospitals have been equipped specifically to treat patients experiencing Covid-19 symptoms.
Contrary to other countries in the region, Nicaragua has not yet established mandatory quarantine for people coming from countries affected by the pandemic, or restrictions on the movement of people entering the country.
Supporters of President Daniel Ortega’s government and state workers marched with red and black flags of the ruling FSLN party and carried posters with health tips for proper hand washing.
Nicaragua’s First Lady Rosario Murillo said:
We are going to walk with the strength of faith and hope throughout the country, in permanent prayer and solidarity with all the people, families and brothers and sisters in the world, affected by the coronavirus.”
In a joint statement, opposition groups Alianza Civica and Unidad Nacional Azúl y Blanco expressed their strong rejection to this kind of mobilization, because of the health risks for participants.
The opposition statement said:
We call on the regime not to call for public marches or crowds, which is one of the main ways of contagion. Forcing public workers and their families to march is an act of irresponsibility and certainly exposes them to danger."
Since when did governors want the federal government to tell them how and when to schedule parades.
Cities and states have their own lawmaking and rules making bodies. Look at localized immigration policies. They certainly don’t want the feds telling them what to do in many areas and policies.
That’s bs. And blame shifting nonsense. Please see through this stuff everyone.
Spoke with my 87 year old cousin who lives near Boston and is a doctor. She just read the NY Times article on the 2 Chinese healthcare workers and the course of the disease in each. She made the connection with her deathly illness this past summer, where she had all the symptoms of coronavirus, including dry cough, and most interestingly, a CT scan with ground glass opacities, one of the ways coronavirus is diagnosed. She was screened for influenza and every other disease they could think of since she was so ill. Negative for all. Was told she had a bad virus (or cancer). It took her months to recover, and she still has residual symptoms. Obviously it makes no sense to see if she has any antibiodies now but I think there’s a decent chance she had it in July.
Mexico asks citizens to avoid non-essential travel, creates “National Distance Healing Holiday”
From CNN Español’s Daniel Silva in Miami and CNN’s Radina Gigova in Atlanta
The Mexican government is urging citizens to avoid non-essential international travel and is reminding Mexicans abroad and those planning to travel in the near future to keep in mind each country’s restrictive coronavirus measures.
Mexico will keep its consulates and embassies abroad open to provide assistance to nationals who need it, according to a joint statement by the Ministries of Health and Foreign Affairs issued on Saturday.
Mexican authorities also warned that any traveler who experiences symptoms should contact the health teams that carry out control work at all points of entry to Mexico.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health has agreed to hold a “National Distance Healing Holiday” from March 23 to April 19 to promote basic prevention measures, such as temporarily suspending non-essential public activities, rescheduling of mass gatherings and increasing protection and care for the elderly.
State and local leaders DO need guidance, IMO, from the federal government on how seriously to take this. There needs to be a coordinated and unified strategy, not 50 separate reactions. Each state isn’t an island geographically. Plus, governors have no control over airport customs and border control, so, yes, IMO, the IL governor can criticize the process at O’Hare. He’ll have to deal with all the newly created cases that happened as a result of what transpired yesterday.
@privatebanker Long lines at O’Hare last night had nothing to do with people waiting for their flight. These were people who had just flown in from Europe – from Italy, Spain, France, etc., where the virus has spread significantly. The hold up was at customs (federal agency) who didn’t have the staff to implement the new rules for incoming passengers. This was NOT your ordinary airport crowding situation. People waited for 3-6 HOURS to get their bags and go through customs packed like sardines.
My husband was on a call-in to state and local officials from the WH days ago. He said it was all “platitudes and no guidance.”
He used a few harsher words, too.
Minnesota governor closes schools for 8 days
From CNN’s Melissa Alonso
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz announced that the state’s schools will close for eight days starting Wednesday, according to a press release from his office.
Walz is “authorizing the temporary closure of Minnesota K-12 public schools to students in order for school administrators and teachers to make long-term plans for the continuity of education and essential services during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the release said.
Schools will be closed to students by March 18 through March 27, during which school staff and administrators will plan the next steps, according to the release.
Iraq extends suspension of commercial trade through land borders with Iran and Kuwait
From CNN’s Aqeel Najim in Baghdad and Nada AlTaher in Abu Dhabi
Iraq is extending the suspension of commercial trade through its land borders with Iran and Kuwait effective Sunday “until further notice” amidst coronavirus fears, Iraq’s Border Ports Commission (BPC) announced on Saturday.
Returning Iraqis have until March 15 to enter through the land crossings after undergoing “preventive health measures," the statement added.
The BPC did not specify what those measures are.
After Sunday, Iraqis wanting to return to their country will have to enter through Baghdad, Basra, Najaf and Erbil airports, the BPC said.
Schools in the Netherlands are set to close as the Dutch government steps up measures to combat the spread of coronavirus, national broadcaster NOS reported.
NOS said the measure was decided on during crisis meetings and would be announced later (5pm local time) at a government news conference. (Guardian)
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he would not rule out closing the nation’s borders or forcing people arriving from foreign nations to go into self-isolation to help combat a coronavirus outbreak.
Asked specifically whether Canada might shut its borders to Europe or the United States, Trudeau told CTV: “We are not taking anything off the table.”
So far 249 Canadians have tested positive for Covid-19 and one person has died. (Guardian)