Coronavirus in the US

Me thinks China is more transparent than it used to be.

Graphic:

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS-COMPARISON/0100B5BY3CY/index.html

From CDC’s website:
a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.

From CNN:
SARS killed 349 people in mainland China, according to the NHC.

Globally, SARS mortality rate was around 10% vs. an estimated 2% for 2019-nCoV.

Kind of you to say I’m one your two favorite posters, BD. Can’t believe you only have two, but do know you always say the right thing.

Sometimes - oftentimes - I’m a little slow. Along with throwing out what seemed might be of interest (story about the positive test for the Washington case) I thought to flesh it out with the Hong Kong SARS outbreak that was mentioned in the same. Seemed contextual.

After reading both of the links I posted, my only takeaway was that I might look for another restroom, if I walked into one that smelled like an open sewer. Didn’t consider that someone might consider the likelihood of the problem to be so low that they’d see the whole post as being a fear-mongering one.

Fwiw, I’ve enlisted my kids to assist in changing a wax ring on toilets - city sewer - figured it was useful knowledge and good for their souls. What they didn’t ever have to do was help pull the toilet off a septic system, one with the tank less than 50’ away and the field lines in sand, way downslope.

Until now, I’ve never typed the word 'feculent" but that’s about the only description for what drafted out of that closet drain.

@catahoula - it is not what you smell will kill you. It is what you can’t smell. :wink:

True enough but I’d bet - if the post-mortem of the Amoy Complex in Hong Kong was right - the surviving residents would have said their restroom facilities stank.

And their hand washing was where? Plus, don’t forget- US water is chlorinated for a good reason.

Hand washing - or lack thereof - was the main culprit in the spread of HAI in the US. Not toilets.

Wash your hands, folks, and flush the toilet myth down the drain. :wink:

Big bummer for the supply chain:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/virus-threatens-u-s-companies-supply-of-chinese-made-parts-and-materials/

A review of the global impact:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/coronavirus-infections-predicted-to-grow-exponentially-first-death-outside-china-outbreak-becomes-political/

1919 Flu pandemic CSMR (Case Specific Mortality Rate) aka: death rate among those infected has been estimated at 20%

1957-58 flu pandemic estimated at about 2.5%

1967-68 Flu pandemic estimated at about 2%

If the media and health officials were saying " Corona Virus 2019 strain is probably as bad as a pretty bad flu strain, but no where near as bad as the worst flu strain," would people still be freaking out?

Probably not.

But health bureaucrats like to get on the national news, and the news likes to sell ads and get attention. Understandable, but deplorable all the same.

So, you think the CDC, WHO, NIH, etc. are all running around in circles because they want to get on the national news? And China and other countries having a huge economic impact? That’s a pretty big conspiracy theory.

I also don’t think things need to be as bad as the worst worst flu strain, nor even near that level, to warrant concern and caution. I’m sure if there was a new strain of flu without a vaccine and a 2% mortality rate and a R0 of 2-3%, we’d be hearing about that as well.

Off topic… I just noticed that my CC ads are all in Chinese! ? anyone else is seeing the radioactive baby? ?

"Chinese troops based in Wuhan have taken control of the delivery of basic essentials to people living in the city…

State broadcaster CCTV reported that a backup logistics team, made up of troops based in Hubei, was established on Monday and had delivered 200 tonnes of supplies to supermarkets in Wuhan, using 50 military trucks. In total, the team includes 260 military officers, from the PLA’s land and air forces, and 130 trucks.

Residents across mainland China have rushed to stockpile daily necessities since the escalation of the outbreak. Medical staff in Wuhan have also complained that they lack everything from hospital beds to face masks.
The PLA has sent 1,400 military doctors and nurses to Wuhan, on the direct orders of Chinese President Xi Jinping and has also taken over the operation of a temporary hospital which opened in the city on Monday. This is, however, the first time the PLA has taken over distribution of public supplies of general necessities." (SCMP)

ā€œSo, you think the CDC, WHO, NIH, etc. are all running around in circles because they want to get on the national news?ā€

No, but we all know who wants to.

Ever watch the weather reports in South Florida the second a thunderstorm forms off the west coast of Africa? Or the weather reports in DC the second there is even a remote chance of a few snowflakes a week away?

It isn’t a conspiracy, it’s just a tendency to over-dramatize.

See many headlines saying ā€œNothing much happened today?ā€

Ever notice how people tend to use excessively dramatic language? TV reports about people saying things like ā€œI was devastated when McDonalds dropped the McRib sandwichā€¦ā€

Please. The 1918 flu pandemic happened in a time when we barely accepted that germs existed and treatment was throwing people in a huge room with windows. Let’s not compare anything to before at least the 50s.

I believe what was unusual and particularly fearful about the 1918 flu pandemic was the mortality rate among otherwise healthy young and middle aged adults. Since flu victims are generally the very young, the old,and those with compromised immune systems or health conditions, that 1918 event marked a dramatic departure from the typical.

IIRC the first wave of the 1918 pandemic flu followed a pattern more typical of other seasonal flus. It was more likely to kill older or weaker flu victims. The second wave, however, ravaged the young and healthy. This was the disease that caused a cytokine storm in victims with robust immune systems.

I remember reading a theory that one difference between the 1918 (aka ā€œSpanish Fluā€) and past flus was that the normal flu patterns that allowed the weaker versions of the flu to survive - mildly sick people go on with life while very sick people stay home - was reversed among the military. Very sick people were sent home on trains or to crowded hospitals but the mildly sick stayed within their fighting units. That way the more virulent forms of this flu were spread more widely while the milder forms, which conferred immunity to the more virulent, remained more limited in spread.

Wow, comparing to 1919, 1957, 1967?

What year are we in? 1987?

"A person who was a passenger on a Japanese-operated cruise ship has tested positive for a new virus after leaving the ship in Hong Kong on Jan. 25.

The ship returned to Yokohama carrying 3,000 passengers and crew members after making port calls in Vietnam, Taiwan and Okinawa. A team of quarantine officials and medical staff boarded the ship on Monday night and began medical checks of everyone on board, a health ministry official said on condition of anonymity, citing department rules.

He said some people on the ship have developed coughs, fevers and other symptoms, though they were not yet linked to the virus. The passengers and crew members may be quarantined on the ship if the captain agrees to do so, the official said." (AP)

I didn’t even think of this very sad angle to the 2019-nCoV issue. :cry:

"In the disease epicentre, thousands of pet owners are unable to get back to their pets due to transport restrictions. Many more are choosing to abandon their pets. The government order to cull all pets in China is a threat looming over pet owners and animal lovers.

Many citizens of Wuhan had left the city before the Chinese New Year, assuming that they would be back home in a few days. However, the homeowners are unable to return since the city was put under lockdown on January 23. At the same time, many pet owners were forced to leave their pets at home while they were taken to the hospital or quarantine.

A 43-year-old man, going by the name Lao Mao or ā€œOld Cat,ā€ is working with other animal lovers to rescue pets that have been left behind. According to his estimate 50,000 pets remain locked in their homes, alone without food and water.

Lao Mao and other volunteers are forced to break into homes to rescue the starving animals. Lao Mao told Reuters that since January 25, they had rescued over 1,000 pets. The volunteers are trying to respond to calls from desperate pet owners who cannot get back home to their pets. At the same time, there are still numerous other uncared for pets whose owners are unable to get them help."

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/abandoned-culled-plight-pets-virus-stricken-china-1675279