Plus just due to the fact we weren’t testing and now we are.
The question of what is an essential vs. non-essential business has some grey zones. My son owns a scuba shop. Obviously non-essential, right? You would think it would make sense for him to shut down but yesterday he got a panicked call from the major aquarium/marine rescue nearby. It turns out his shop does all the air fills and servicing for the divers who work in the large central fish tanks. Without the shop they’d be unable to properly care for the animals and many of them could die. They were relieved when he told them he’d continue to service them throughout a shutdown. Strange but true.
i don’t think that is long enough. I am not a doctor, though. What I read is that people shed the virus after seeming well for 2-4 weeks. Even flu is contagious for 7-10 days after symptoms from what I understand.
You’re using young, fit people as representative of our population? Have you looked around much? Have you ever had a statistics class to learn about representative sampling?
Every single year people get the flu and don’t know it too. It can be asymptomatic. With people who show symptoms enough to get tested for it, the flu ranges between a 0.1% and 0.05% death rate (those with the flu often stay home without testing too, even if sick). It kills roughly one in a thousand or one in two thousand who get it that badly.
Covid is killing around 1-7% pending which country one looks at with the limited data we have (many cases still pending as it doesn’t kill quickly and many don’t recover quickly). The higher kill numbers are where the hospitals are overrun. Those countries, while shut down now, didn’t shut down as quickly or authoritatively as the “successes.” It will take them a while to catch up. Days matter. Smaller numbers matter. The earlier the shut downs the better the chances for success IF people stay home. If not, they ruin the attempt making it meaningless.
So, multiply your numbers by 10 or 20 or 140 - are we content with those numbers dying daily if/when it were to spread to be as wide as the flu? The fact that so many tests are coming back negative right now shows it’s not widely out there - most people don’t already have it - not even close to a majority even of those who are qualifying for the test. The majority showing symptoms just have a cold apparently.
While the death rates are “low,” if you feel they are, 20% of those showing symptoms enough to get tested have it severely - and not just the “old” folks for that. Many of those who survive do due to medical treatment.
“Entire few months…” You’re aware we’re only half way through March, right? And they just started realizing this was a “thing” in this country in Jan? It only been two months (here). If you go back to Nov in China, then we’re talking 4 months tops. I’d say it’s made an impact. If the world just “lets it go,” then we’ll really see an impact. When they start deciding who gets treatment and who doesn’t, perhaps they should use whether someone tried to help prevent the onslaught or not as a criteria?
I’m 100% in favor of not wasting energy on conspiracy theories. 
^ I’m in favor of people understanding statistics and exponential growth rates.
A friend posted that ibuprofen can be dangerous to take if you have Covid 19. Googled that claim and found the following:
(CNN)France’s health ministry has suggested that popular anti-inflammatory painkillers such as ibuprofen could worsen the effects of the coronavirus, raising questions over which over-the-counter drugs people should be taking to treat the symptoms of the disease.
Health Minister Olivier Veran, who has also worked as a neurologist, tweeted on Saturday that “taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone…) could be an aggravating factor of the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol. If you are already on anti-inflammatory drugs or in doubt, ask your doctor for advice.”
His suggestion was criticized by some health experts, who cited the lack of publicly available evidence suggesting a link between ibuprofen and adverse effects of the coronavirus. There is currently no published scientific evidence that the virus is worsened by ibuprofen.
Thoughts?
Update to my previous post:
My husband’s Ob/Gyn department (clinics. Labor and Delivery and surgery) is down 12 providers as of today due to two definite Covid-19 positive results of one resident and one patient. The rest are providers (staff, residents, nurses) who are in self quarantine awaiting results of testing because of exposure to the two people who tested positive. (Plus an intern who is home in quarantine because she was in a hot spot, and a staff physician who went home sick but apparently has the flu.)
12 providers out for at least several days due to unexpected exposure to two people.
This all happened this weekend, as testing kits were suddenly available and the testing tent was first in use.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s advice: Act as if you’re already infected
CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta has one piece of advice for Americans: Act as if you’re already infected with the coronavirus.
This means not leaving the home for non-essential reasons, not having people over to socialize, and taking precautions to protect the people in close proximity with you.
“If you have to, you’ve got to act as if you might be carrying the virus,” Gupta said. “There are all these things that are within our power and we’re in this together.”
He added that he had canceled his younger daughter’s birthday party, and canceled a trip to visit his parents – difficult decisions, but ultimately things one would and should do if they were sick – and the kind of mentality that may now help protect people from the virus.
“The good news part of this is that it’s within our control to totally change the fate here – or at least, alter the fate of what’s happening here,” he said. “It’s within all of us. How I behave affects your health. How you behave affects my health. Never have we been so dependent on each other – at least not in my lifetime – and we should rise to that occasion.”
For people who aren’t aware:
Paracetamol = Tylenol
Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests negative for coronavirus a second time
From CNN’s Shasta Darlington in Sao Paulo, and Helena DeMoura, Jackie Castillo and Larry Register in Atlanta
The President’s health has been monitored closely since Bolsonaro’s press secretary, Fabio Wajngarten, tested positive for the virus last week.
Bolsonaro had previously been tested for coronavirus. His first test also came back negative, according to statements on his social media.
Bolsonaro, Wajngarten and other officials met with US President Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.The group had dinner together with President Trump and his team.
It was after the delegation confirmed several infections that concerns were raised Trump may have been exposed to the virus at close contact. Trump tested negative days later.
Thousands of foreign travellers need to leave the northern Philippines by Friday or they will be stranded in the region, which has been placed under quarantine because of a growing number of coronavirus infections, officials said Tuesday.
Rows of taxis that were instructed by police to stop operations while the government implements the “enhanced community quarantine” as a precautionary measure against the spread of the new coronavirus in Metro Manila, Philippines, early Tuesday, March 17, 2020.
Rows of taxis that were instructed by police to stop operations while the government implements the “enhanced community quarantine” as a precautionary measure against the spread of the new coronavirus in Metro Manila, Philippines, early Tuesday, March 17, 2020. Photograph: Aaron Favila/AP
President Rodrigo Duterte declared an enhanced community quarantine on the main island of Luzon that requires millions of people to stay mostly at home and restricts land, air and sea travel to fight the Covid-19 disease.
The drastic moves announced by Duterte on Monday night, which include the suspension of mass transport, caught many by surprise and sparked traffic jams and confusion in many areas.
Hundreds of taxis were stopped by police along metropolitan Manilas main EDSA highway for violating the transport ban and made to wait for hours in long rows on the sidelines. Many drivers said they were unaware of the ban and were eventually allowed to leave without fines.
The Philippines has reported 187 cases of infections, according to the Department of Health, which confirmed Tuesday that one of its officials was among those infected.
Fourteen people have died, the highest toll in Southeast Asia.
Transport Undersecretary Raul del Rosario said foreign tourists and travelers can opt to leave Luzon, where Manila is located, within 72 hours to avoid being stranded, because all flights from the region will be suspended.
When the deadline arrives, they will have no option because all flights, domestic and international, will be canceled, del Rosario told a news conference.
Many passengers jammed Manilas main airport Tuesday.
Some airlines have already canceled flights, complicating the problems of outbound travellers. (Guardian)
I’ll take that bet.
Let’s look at reported statistics as of a couple of hours ago
3/1: 89
3/2: 105
3/3: 125
3/4: 159
3/5: 227
3/6: 331
3/7: 444
3/8: 564
3/9: 728
3/10: 1,000
3/11: 1,267
3/12: 1,645
3/13: 2,204
3/14: 2,826
3/15: 3,505
3/16: 4,466
Now: 5,839 [this has already gone up, and is now over 6000]
Let’s assume that there are ten times as many actual cases as there are diagnosed cases. In that case, two weeks ago there were 1050 cases. Now, the thing is, you don’t typically drop dead the minute you have symptoms. It takes around two weeks. And, look… we have 100 deaths. That’s way more than 1% of 1050.
The fact that we have over 6000 known cases so far, and only 100 deaths, doesn’t tell us much. Some of those 6000 will die but haven’t died yet.
However, before we get too far afield.
The death rates are artificially higher imho as they also include a poor sample population.
The first major cluster was a medical facility for elderly people with preexisting issues. The first death in WA was a middle age man who was terminally ill. The cruise ships were filled with similar demographics. The Texas death yesterday was a gentleman in his late 90s.
Once this spreads, hopefully in a controllable manner and after the vaccine next year. The ultimate death rates across the population will be no where near 3 to 7 percent. My hope is less than .5
I am also convinced that thousands are infected and don’t know or have already recovered.
We just don’t have a population level sample size to tell.
The key is to get everyone over 60 and with a preexisting condition to 100 percent shelter in place.
The rest of us need to as well or practice cdc guidelines. It will allow for top medical care for the younger and healthier outliers who are predisposed and most of these folks will live as well.
This article gives a ranking of predicted Covid19 deaths, based on 30% of the US population being infected, with a death rate of .5%. Those numbers could change dramatically, but it’s interesting to see how it shakes out this way (and it’s quite devastating).
@Cardinal Fang - aren’t those numbers more a function of increased test availability? If you look at the 2 week period from 3/2 to 3/16, for instance, that is a compound daily growth rate of 31%. Do you really think infections are increasing exponentially at 31% per day?
Why would you assume that there were 10 times as many “true” cases 2 weeks ago? What if there were 50 times? You literally have no idea. Five days ago, when your stats say 1267 people in the United States had tested as “infected” - and presumably you think the number might be as high as 10 times that - the Ohio Department of Health estimated that over 100,000 Ohioans alone were infected. I suspect they had much better information than you do. If they are to be believed, your estimate of 10x is off by at least an order of magnitude, which conveniently would lower the mortality rate two weeks later to below 1%.
Looking at the Italy experience, I have no problem believing that the virus hits elderly and those with preexisting conditions particularly hard. I am still sticking with a guess that ultimately mortality rates - even in the absence of fully adequate medical care (which is guaranteed if we are to believe to numbers and projections, as Governor Cuomo for instance outlined yesterday) - will be less than 1% across the infected population as a whole. If the Ohio Department of Health is even in the ballpark, it’s hard to imagine otherwise.
The debate will of course only be settled years from now by retrospective examination of the stats. There will be tremendous pressure to inflate numbers of deaths from coronavirus of course in the near term, at least so long as the funding spigots are wide open.
@privatebanker: “My hope is less than .5”
Even in SKorea, where they’ve done everything pretty much as well as you can expect a democratic nation to do and where they tested everybody they can and where a bunch of the cases of infected were 20-somethings (they were in a cult), the fatality rate is higher than that.
1% fatality rate is our best case scenario, IMO.
@OneMoreToGo2021: “Do you really think infections are increasing exponentially at 31% per day?”
I have no idea what the true infection rate is but I don’t understand why you find that infection rate so hard to believe. There are infectious diseases with infection rates even higher than that. Measles, for instance.
Discussion on possibility of checks to Americans.
@PurpleTitan Your guess is as good as mine. I personally believe the numbers of asymptomatic and incredibly mild cases is much larger than that and it’s not counted in South Korea or anywhere else.
These uncounted and undetected masses are great for statistics. Terrible for spread.
Paracetamol is another generic name for acetaminophen. Tylenol is by far the most widely known brand name, though there are others.
Note that acetaminophen is commonly used in combination drugs, so be sure to read all labels carefully to be sure that you are not going over the maximum dosage due to not noticing that combination drugs contain acetaminophen.