Social distancing could increase loneliness; in some cases, it is easier to mitigate than others.
We’re keen to inject a bit of optimism into the blog when possible and there is some in a Reuters story about how shares in Fujifilm have jumpped 15% after a Chinese official said the Japanese company’s Avigan anti-flu drug appeared to help coronavirus patients recover.
Fujifilm is obviously best known for its camera equipment but one of its subsidiaries makes a drug called Avigan, which is also known as Favipiravir. The drug was approved for use in Japan in 2014.
Reuters says that Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday that Favipiravir has been effective, with no obvious side-effects, in helping coronavirus patients recover,
A Fujifilm spokeswoman said the company had no comment on the Chinese government’s announcement. Fujifilm manufactures Avigan only on receiving orders from the Japanese government and has no sales target for the drug, she said.
Fujifilm shares closed the morning up 14.7% at 5,207 yen, having briefly hit their daily limit high of 5,238 yen. (Guardian)
Taiwan to bar entry to most foreigners, everyone entering to be put into quarantine
Taiwan will ban most foreigners from entering as it seeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak, its government said, according to a Reuters report.
Anyone who enters Taiwan will also have to serve out a home quarantine period of 14 days, the report said, citing its health minister Chen Shih-chung. He said the number of imported cases have “increased sharply.” The island has reported 77 cases to date.
The new measures will be effective from midnight, and the government did not say how long they will be in effect, according to the report. (CNBC)
American Airlines extends time on voluntary unpaid leave options for flight attendants, others
American Airlines said it has extended the time on voluntary unpaid leave options for flight attendants, mechanics and gate agents to up to 12 months, Reuters reported. That indicated the company doesn’t expect travel demand to rebound any time soon. Unpaid leave of absence for staff is one of the ways some airlines are trying to save costs as more people cancel their trips in light of the global pandemic. (CNBC)
Australia raises travel restriction to the highest level, tells citizens not to travel overseas
Australia raised its advisory for all overseas travel to the highest level and told citizens not to travel at this time, regardless of their destination, age or health condition. The “Level 4: Do Not Travel” designation suggests that if people choose to travel, despite the advice, the Australian government may not be in a position to help them if they land in trouble abroad.
The government also said Australians overseas who want to return to the country should do so immediately and that upon their arrival, they would be required to self-isolate for two weeks. Separately, Australia has banned non-essential indoor gathering of more than 100 people starting Wednesday. That could potentially affect cinemas, theaters, restaurants, clubs, and cafes.
Australia has recorded at least 375 confirmed cases as of 6 a.m. local time on March 17; of them, 27 have recovered and five people died, according to the health ministry. (CNBC)
From the NYT article cited in post #7617.
@privatebanker: “Your guess is as good as mine.”
I disagree. My guess is based off of numbers from a open democracy that had already encountered a recent coronavirus scare (so the populace is motivated to get tested even if they are asymptomatic) that is testing everybody it can (including folks who drive up and request testing).
I don’t know what your guess is based on.
You can disagree if you like, but I don’t share the opinion that they are equivalent at all.
More about the drug Avigan from Nikkei Asian Review:
DALIAN, China – An influenza medicine developed by a Fujifilm Holdings group member is effective against the novel coronavirus, the Chinese government said Tuesday.
The government has already begun officially recommending the drug’s use. Fujifilm Toyama Chemical developed favipiravir, sold under the brand Avigan.
“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” said Zhang Xinmin, director of the science ministry’s China National Center for Biotechnology Development, in a news conference. Fujifilm Toyama Chemical developed the drug in 2014, and it has been provided to patients in Japan as treatment for the novel coronavirus since February.
On Wednesday, shares in Fujifilm were untraded in Tokyo in early morning on a glut of buy orders after the Chinese government’s announcement.
Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical signed a patent-licensing agreement for favipiravir with Fujifilm in 2016. The drugmaker received clearance to produce the drug from Chinese authorities in February and can ramp up output of a generic version.
The clinical trial was conducted at hospitals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, with 200 patients participating. Test results for those receiving the drug turned negative in a shorter period, and their pneumonia symptoms improved at a higher rate.
Steep drop in the number of passengers taking NYC subway, buses, Metro North, and Long Island Rail Road. Great news for NY and CT (one of the three Metro North rails goes to CT)
In a letter on Tuesday to New York’s Congressional delegation, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority — which runs the subway, buses and two commuter rails — said ridership had plunged 60 percent on the subway and 49 percent on buses on Monday compared with the same day last year.
Similar steep drops have taken place on other parts of the system: 90 percent on Metro-North Railroad, which serves communities north of New York City; and 67 percent on the Long Island Rail Road during the Tuesday morning rush hour compared to the same day last year.
(New York Times)
If you have 100 people and 30 of them have X disease, 30% of people have that disease.
If you’ve only tested 50 and 5 came back positive, then the next day you test the other 50 and 25 come back positive, your rate of positive cases hasn’t actually exponentially increased. We’ve just finally caught the cases. The infected rate was always 30% even if we only showed 10% because of who we tested.
That’s what’s happening in the US right now. That’s it. Are cases expanding? Yup, but what the testing numbers show is that our testing is expanding - not the case numbers.
(I promise that’ll be the last I say… tonight… on conspiracy theory BS.)
Age or underlying condition? The first 50 yr old who died in our state did have a (very bad) underlying condition. That’s all I can say.
Not the way I’d put it: they cordoned off 50MM or so people, because they were more aware of the reality than they were willing to share with the rest of the world. They elected to sacrifice more of the Hubei citizens, because they didn’t want the virus to overwhelm the medical resources of the rest of the country. While they were at it, they stalled the arrival of the team from WHO, along with refusing CDC assistance.
Maybe we’ve just been reading different things.
Side note: when did calling a proposition a “conspiracy theory” become a stand-in for actually discussing the facts it’s composed of?
Your numbers should be shared with the global health leaders.
Because there seems to be some disagreement as to where this will land.
A study was released today discussed by infectious disease expert that as many as 86% percent of those with the virus may be asymptomatic. Even if that’s way off, it’s still a big non tested group.
I also believe that with protective measures our most at risk population can be spared the full force of this and the numbers can be lowered as well.
But I hope I’m right and your wrong for our world. But in the end it will be what it will be anyway.
White House requests $45.8 billion in emergency funding
From CNN’s Phil Mattingly
The White House Office of Management and Budget submitted an emergency funding request to the US Congress tonight for an additional $45.8 billion in the face of a pandemic.
The sweeping request for new funds and statutory authority came on the same day the Trump administration presented a $1 trillion stimulus proposal on Capitol Hill.
“With the pandemic growing, resource needs have also grown,” Russell Vought, the acting OMB director, wrote in a letter attached to the 118 page request that was sent to lawmakers late Tuesday night.
“The unprecedented mobilization the Administration has achieved has forced agencies to incur unanticipated costs. These costs must be met with a legislative response to ensure full operational capacity.”
Why this matters: The request comes on top the $8.3 billion in emergency funding passed by Congress just two weeks ago – underscoring just how dramatically financial demands at federal agencies have grown in a matter of days.
The request is also viewed by the administration as coming in tandem with the large-scale economic stimulus negotiation, which are expected to have a price tag north of $1 trillion, currently underway on Capitol Hill.
The package isn’t a complete single solution: It’s not meant to be a "broad-based solution to the major economic dislocation wrought by the virus, nor is it the primary means by which the Federal Government plans to address the hardships of families, individuals, and communities who have been touched by the disease,” Vought wrote.
“We are currently in active dialogue with the Congress on additional proposals that speak to these broader, vital issues.”
Negotiators are planning to include the emergency funding request in the stimulus package currently being discussed, congressional aides tell CNN.
South Korea’s Vice Health Minister is in self-quarantine, as cluster infections continue
South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Ganglip is in self-quarantine, after attending a government meeting last week with another participant who tested positive today.
The infected attendee is the president of Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Seongnam City, Gyeonggi Province, where cluster transmissions have been reported at a church and a hospital.
Other government officials and participants at the meeting, which took place last Friday, are also in self-quarantine.
This comes as cluster transmissions continue in the country.
The country reported 93 new cases and 84 deaths on Wednesday – still in keeping with. more general trend of decreasing infection rates, compared to hundreds of new cases a day just weeks ago. But the outbreak is far from over, with new clusters identified this week.
One major cluster is still in the southern city of Daegu, where the outbreak has been concentrated. In one hospital in Daegu, 74 cases have been confirmed. (CNN)
@privatebanker, global health leaders already have come up with a fatality rate estimate that is far above my hoped for 1%. Did you not hear about the 3.4% fatality rate estimate?
"The newspaper L’Eco di Bergamo usually has an obituary section of two or three pages.
In recent days, it has been 10 or 11 pages. Some 90 percent of the deaths, its editor says, are related to the coronavirus."
This does not sound like an infection with a 0.5% fatality rate (when the flu has a 0.1% fatality rate).
@roycroftmom Maybe your town is a huge outlier but the fact is that although an anecdotal news story from Italy recently implied that the young are being as hit as hard as the old ( prior post quoting the supposed 50 percent of ICU patients at one hospital were under 60) but that is belied by the cold hard facts from the CNN story : “In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.”
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article
It’s a very comprehensive study. 14 percent cfr in Wuhan because of breakdown in health care. And much less than 1 percent elsewhere.
Like I said, you may be right. But it’s not known.
I hope the mitigation techniques lower the cfr. Fatality rates.
There are other studies with high levels of asymptomatic cases. That’s why the study shown above begs for social distancing.
@maya54, well in Northern Italy, they’re already in a war-state triage situation. Not enough respirators, supplies, and medical personnel to go around so doctors have to decide who to try to save and who to let die. They are trying to save younger folks and sacrificing the elderly.
The rest of Europe will be like that in 1-2 weeks. Portions of the US by then or soon after.
Specifically exempt under 10b essential business (provider of health care services to animals) and 10 f XV Businesses that supply other essential businesses with the support or supplies necessary to operate.
I spent a good chunk of my day analyzing the order so not strange to me
“global health leaders already have come up with a fatality rate estimate that is far above my hoped for 1%. Did you not hear about the 3.4% fatality rate estimate?”
Sources for the 1% estimate are hyperlinked in the article, which include our own Dr. Fauci.
@privatebanker: “14 percent cfr in Wuhan because of breakdown in health care. And much less than 1 percent elsewhere.”
Break down in healthcare like we are seeing in Northern Italy now, where they don’t have enough respirators for everyone. If nothing changes, the rest of Europe will be like Northern Italy soon too as well as portions of the US.
Four players on the Brooklyn Nets NBA team tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. The Nets last played the Lakers before the season was suspended, and did not play the Jazz or Pistons (two other teams with players who tested positive) within the previous two weeks. The Lakers will be tested.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story//id/28917855/four-nets-players-test-positive-coronavirus
https://www.espn.com/nba/story//id/28918511/lakers-undergo-coronavirus-testing-were-nets-last-opponent
@OneMoreToGo2021, I stated 1% fatality rate as my best case scenario (still way higher than the flu and 6-7 figure deaths).
Some people poo poo’ed that.