Coronavirus in the US

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9941

That is only 0.1% needing hospitalization. That is great news! See below.

It is important to realize that not everyone gets sick all at once. Maybe in a very fast moving virus such as the professor models (based on the Chinese data) the population moves to the 50% herd immunity threshold over two months. So, you can expect a curve of cases requiring hospitalization over two months and a little more (because of the dispersion of average times for individuals to develop symptoms and have the disease run its course). Perhaps it is one month. The same principle applies, the curve is just steeper and shorter.

Also, in this model only 50% of the population gets infected, so for the United States that would be 340mm * 0.5 (herd immunity threshold) * 0.001 (hypothesized hospitalization rate) = 170,000 people.

I have seen estimates based on ICU beds available that hospital overwhelm would occur in the US at 0.3% infection rate, but this was estimated based on static capacity.

No doubt the repurposing, building and shifting of resources has already raised this ceiling, perhaps to 0.5%. At these estimates, then, overwhelm occurs at between 1.02mm (0.3%) - 1.7mm (0.5%) people sick and needing hospitalization. As there is a curve in hospital admissions, obviously that can be handled theoretically with 170,000 hypothesized hospital admissions. Keep in mind that right now according to worldometers we have about 55,000 cases, and obviously most do not go to the hospital.

People still die, of course, under these assumptions but that is inevitable in any disease. In the end we are just flesh and blood creatures with a very imperfect understanding of our own biology.

On any given day in the United States, approximately 150-200 people die of flu/pneumonia alone, which is more than have died on any given day so far from coronavirus (and no doubt some corona deaths are mislabeled flu/pneumonia cases as well - not all are being tested of course).

Another 100 or more (iirc) die each day from emphysema and COPD-related illnesses (again, some portion are no doubt being wrongly attributed to coronavirus).

Time will tell. I hope this analysis cheers you up, and even more I hope the Oxford professor is right.

9942

I think a really good way to figure out what state or area has the most “spread” and highest rate is to take the deaths and compare them against population to get a “deaths per 100,000”. I think that would more fairly show where the virus is focused.

9943

You are right - I miswrote. Should have said attack rate:

The “attack rate” of the coronavirus in the New York metro area is five times higher than in other areas of the country, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said Monday evening.

About 1 in 1,000 people have the coronavirus in the region, she added.

Of those who have been tested for the virus in the New York area, 28 percent were positive, compared to 8 percent in the rest of the country.

9944

FYI, The most recent Florida numbers are:
Positives: 1467
Negatives: 13,358
Pending: 1221
This means the %positive is just under 10%.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429/
(click on the “Florida Testing” tab.)

9945

I am concerned for Maine. We are seeing lots of out of state people fleeing to their second homes here. Our across the street neighbors just arrived from Brooklyn last week, right before the lockdown hit.

9946

They should quarantine for 2 weeks.

9947

The relative experiences of Florida versus New York will make an interesting retrospective study once the virus has passed.

Floridians are not practicing social distancing to the degree that NYC is and in general is behind the curve. Yet Florida is much less dense and has the potential advantages of heat, humidity and higher UV sterilization.

I suspect Florida will fare relatively well through this pandemic, especially as compared with NYC. Time will tell.

9948

That is worrisome. In Colorado, they’ve closed a couple of the main areas where millionaires and billionaires have vacation homes. Closed, meaning you can’t be there unless you can prove it’s your primary residence.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that it’s the exclusive resort areas - Vail, Aspen - that are among the hardest hit in Colorado… you’re unlikely to want to flee to a mini-epicenter.

9949

OK, but to give some comps that give an idea of how disparate and lacking the testing has been…

Ohio has tested 704 people. Not a typo - 704. Of that 704 tested, 564 were positive for an “attack rate” of 80%. BTW, that’s 704 people out of a population of 11.7 million. So Ohio has had tests available for .00006 of its population.

New York has tested 91,270 of its 19.5 million population.

So maybe Ohio is the real hotspot? No way to know - we don’t have enough data.

Here’s a link to the paltry data I could find: https://covidtracking.com/data/

9950

Except the risk that FL has is that its the second ‘oldest’ state, so it has more than its share of seniors.

9951

I wonder if it’s a coincidence that the 3 hardest hit states (California, New York, Washington) are highly dependent on the global economy and have major transportation ties with both Asia and Europe along with large immigrant populations.

9952

Singapore has been hit hard and it’s pretty hot/humid there. Although the country is doing a fairly decent job of controlling things.

Once the Southern Hemisphere turns to winter, we will see what happens.

9953

Some local doctors fear the virus has mutated, which would not be surprising. Our town still has 90% of its virus victims under age 60, mostly ages 15-45. So the wave may not be over.

9954

.

Also high population density in the hotspots, never a good thing in a viral outbreak. Another very bad thing: utilization of public transportation (thinking of Bay Area only for California).

9955

@Hamurtle - According to worldometers, Singapore has only seen 558 cases and two deaths. That doesn’t sound very bad at all. Am I missing something? Or is the worldometers data wrong?

9956

This appears to just be due to testing reporting practices.

https://www.cleveland.com/healthfit/2020/03/why-isnt-ohio-reporting-negative-coronavirus-testing-results.html

9957

Californians are too addicted to their cars. So public transportation may not be a vector for covid spread.

On the other hand, the NYC subway system is a concern.

9958

@milee30 - that data for Ohio is incorrect. In my system, in four days we tested over 3,000 people. This was several days ago. I do not have the new numbers for Ohio.

9959

Two $1 Trillion Coins’: Rashida Tlaib Proposal Calls on US Treasury to Fund Coronavirus Recovery From US Mint
Tlaib’s “Automatic BOOST Act” calls for a universal payout of $2,000 to everyone in the U.S. and $1,000 a month after that.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/21/two-1-trillion-coins-rashida-tlaib-proposal-calls-us-treasury-fund-coronavirus

Progressives on Saturday welcomed news that Rep. Rashida Tlaib is calling on the U.S. Treasury to exercise its power to issue platinum coins to fund the coronavirus recovery, calling the move an example of thinking outside the box and celebrating the universality of her proposal to give everyone in America cash payments.

“I fully support the House Financial Services Committee Democrats #COVID19 economic response proposal,” the Michigan Democrat tweeted Saturday. “I also want to encourage leadership to consider my truly universal relief proposal on behalf of #13thDistrictStrong.”

“This is a really ambitious and creative plan from Rep. Tlaib taking advantage of ideas that financial experts began exploring during the debt crisis showdowns of the Obama years,” tweeted HuffPost reporter Zach Carter.

The “Automatic BOOST to Communities Act” (pdf) would deliver a $2,000 pre-paid debit card to every American, with $1,000 being paid monthly after that until a year after the coronavirus crisis ends. Tlaib proposes to pay for the cost of the program by calling on the Treasury to use its authority under federal law to issue two trillion dollar platinum coins. The move would not add to the debt.

“Tlaib wants to take advantage of an obscure Treasury authority to issue new currency through minting platinum coins, and then give that currency to people,” said Carter. “No new debt, no weird Federal Reserve programs, just cash straight to folks.”

The bill also uses a broad definition of “every person,” including non-citizens, children and other dependents, those in territories and protectorates, and those without bank accounts.

Under the bill, “an emergency corps will conduct a targeted outreach program to at-risk populations (homeless, elderly, etc) to ensure they receive cards, and at the same time perform a wellness check to assess whether they need additional assistance,” said Modern Money Network president Rohan Grey, who helped write the bill.

“It’s been a thrill to work on this proposal, but it is important to note that while emergency cash relief is critical, it is not sufficient on its own,” Grey added. “We need far-reaching debt and expense relief, additional income and benefit protection and expansion, including direct payroll support, repurposing and public ownership of key industry, and direct worker support through a job guarantee that supports emergency and solidarity work, remote work, and begins planning for what the post-crisis recovery looks like.”

(apologies if this has already been posted…I just now read about this)

9960

@Hamurtle - yeah, for sure about addiction to their cars in CA, but in SF people are on muni, even a few on BART, and don’t forget those crowded google and facebook buses running from SoMa and NV to the peninsula…