Coronavirus in the US

Lots of talk about Florida versus New York and what an “idiot” Governor De Santis is.

Yesterday, according to worldometers, Florida recorded 2 deaths from coronavirus, 87 total. New York recorded 227 deaths, 1941 total. Florida has more people than New York.

On a death per capita basis, Florida is looking a lot more like California and Washington than New York and New Jersey, at least so far. It will be interesting to see the curve as it develops, because Florida has not been practicing extreme social distancing (even now it is not).

Thank you for your post. I appreciate reading that. I’m sure you are right, too. The idea that we are states against one another feels like a ploy to deflect blame by some in power, or people’s reaction to being afraid and feeling that resources are limited and things are unfair. I also know doctors and researchers who are working collaboratively to help the world, not just NY or the USA or China or etc, because we all benefit from this getting under control everywhere, not just where we live.

@CTTC @milee30 : I had not realized the extent to which testing was STILL lagging. I thought that, at least, would have been resolved in the past two weeks.
?
Those in charge at the federal/national level are in dereliction of duty.

This is in French but fairly easy (2 graphs) by a Health Economist that specializes in US and French healthcare costs. The graphs deal with ratio hospital bed/population and ratio ICU beds/population over 40 years. {This magazine is apparently common reading for high school economics students as well as majors, so it’s pretty straightforward.}
Another article I read but can’t locate links that ratio to odds of survival. To everyone’s great surprise (not), the better the ratio, the better the odds. Look at Korea, Japan, and Germany.
https://blogs.alternatives-economiques.fr/gadrey/2020/04/01/le-desastreux-plongeon-des-capacites-hospitalieres-depuis-les-annees-1980-comparaisons-internationales

I remember listening to DeBlasio’s press conference the day he caved. I’ve never heard a man sound so scared.

And for upstsate NYers who think we are all getting tested that is not the case at all. I know lots of people who wanted to get tested who aren’t because although they may have been exposed they aren’t showing any symptoms.

Good, so he understands the curve. He understands the curve and still took a while to implement shut down. Why? How? Surely, he understood every week delayed will cost lives. If he acted two weeks sooner, our numbers will be cut by half even if FL, being so stupid, kills themselves.

@MWolf - my comment regarding “too much data” is about what is described in the link. The DOH has never had to count negative results in such massive amounts (6-10k a day) and is struggling with finding a way to prevent double-counting negative results and assigning them to the right county. They are making progress though.

The problem with not doing a national lockdown (to my non-MD, not medical researcher brain, anyway), is that it only takes one super spreader to make an area become a hot spot. It was not that long ago that one man started the New Rochelle spread that is now in NYC. When did he get sick? March 10? A bit earlier? But not very long ago. So, from first person to a huge, huge problem, it is a few weeks time. Bill Gate’s was very convincing that we need to do this very strictly now in order to have less impact in the future, which is what I have thought all along since early January. A strict ban then would have been painful but a lot less so than now. My understanding of what Bill Gates as well as Dr. Fauci said (at least what I remember of the video I watched) was that once we have brought this down to a small % of the population, THEN we can have different directives for different areas of the country but we need to be very serious and do our best now for the next I would guess 8-10 weeks in order to minimize the long term impact and total fatalities. Letting it go on longer will make the impact worse. Maybe someone else heard a different message. I do wish we had contained it at the outset so we could have had just a part of the country that had to take these measures but the stupid virus is too wide spread and we have asymptomatic spread and are not a population that wears masks. The late start, the lack of proper gear, lack of tests and testing capacity, lack of everything, belief by too many that this is no big deal, etc along with this particular virus and how contagious it is and the fatality rate of those who get it and how quickly the need to be hospitalized and etc is a very bad combination.

@iglooo : right, except, make that “every day” delayed (cf. ICL study) :(. :frowning:

There’s a lot we don’t understand.
But we do understand the virus circulates widely, is highly contagious, can be carried by asymptomatic contagious carriers. We understand exponential growth - once it starts going up, multiply numbers by 1.4 or 1.6 if you started social distancing early, by 2 if you haven’t.

Florida is still at the bottom of the curve. (Of you’re using my wave image, there water but no wave yet.)
Due to zero social distancing it’s likely to have a very high doubling rate that also goes very fast.
And all the kids who went on spring break who brought this back home with them have been creating new hubs of contamination that we’ll find in 1-3 weeks.

Has anyone tested to see if the virus remains viable on sand?

@sue22 good god, that dive boat accident sounds horrific. Never mind that chartered dive boats shouldn’t be operating with regard to the virus; the fact that the boat backed into two of their own divers and killed one is unthinkable.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-killed-in-diving-incident-near-lake-worth-inlet

Oh, and California still doesn’t have access to widespread testing.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/We-re-steering-blind-California-testing-lags-15162802.php

Wow, that’s quite a statement, Suzy-Que! I’m a Floridian, and my family and I are being extremely scrupulous in following social distancing guidelines. I’ve been out twice in the last three weeks - to get groceries. Most of the Floridians I know are doing the same. Of course there is some percentage of the population that isn’t following the guidelines properly, but I think that’s true everywhere. Unless you think everyone where YOU live is doing everything perfectly…

Nonsense. That’s what orders are for, and the National Guard.

Many New York Coronavirus Patients Are Young, Surprising Doctors

Older patients remain most at risk, but hospitals are being hit with more and more younger cases

Younger adults in New York City are being hospitalized with Covid-19 infections at surprisingly high rates, said doctors and other health-care workers treating them, undermining earlier assumptions about who’s most at risk from the new coronavirus.

New York has more confirmed cases than anywhere else in the U.S., and about 1 in 5 hospitalizations are occurring in people under age 44, according to data released by the city’s health department. Globally, moderate-to-severe cases have occurred in 10% to 15% of adults under age 50, according to the World Health Organization.

On Friday at Manhattan’s Mount Sinai Morningside Hospital, a previously healthy 32-year-old male patient turned to doctor Kaedrea Jackson and asked: “Am I going to die?”

The young man, who had no underlying medical conditions, was short of breath with a fever, and his oxygen levels were dropping rapidly. He’d come to the hospital’s emergency department four days earlier but was told to go home, drink water, take Tylenol and self-isolate. Now he was back and his condition was deteriorating. “The level of fear in his eyes stood out to me,” Jackson, an emergency medicine physician, recalled in an interview Tuesday. “He was extremely scared. And he was so young.”

For months, the message from authorities had been that older people were at the highest risk. It was a belief so strongly held that health officials took to chastising people in their 20s and 30s to stay home—not to protect themselves, but to avoid transmitting the disease to older populations. That changed in mid-March, when a top White House health official warned that young people in Italy and France were falling ill. Now, the trend has shown up in the U.S.

“So many patients are not fitting the picture that we’ve been told from China or Italy. This is not just elderly patients; it’s anyone,” Jackson said. A confidential U.S. intelligence report has raised doubts about China’s reporting of the outbreak, including under-counting cases, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

As many as 20% of confirmed cases at the hospital have been under age 50, Jackson estimated. Many younger doctors in their 30s are watching healthy patients their age being admitted into the hospital and needing to be put on a ventilator.

“People are scared. These are patients where you’re thinking: ‘This just shouldn’t be happening to you. You’re so young. Why is this happening?”

‘This is not just elderly patients; it’s anyone’

A lack of widespread testing for the virus in the U.S. has made it difficult for health officials to know which groups are most at risk. But doctors and other health workers who spoke to Bloomberg described surprising numbers of younger patients who needed life-saving care.

“It’s young folks, previously healthy,” said Eric Wei, an emergency room doctor and chief quality officer at NYC Health + Hospitals, the city’s public hospital system. “They look like they have the flu. Within hours, they need oxygen. Within a few more hours they need a ventilator.”

At NYU Langone Health’s Medical Center overlooking the East River in Manhattan, dozens of patients in intensive care last week were under age 50, according to a worker who was providing direct medical care to them. A handful were in their 20s, and one was just 7 years old. The hospital declined to provide exact numbers of Covid-19 patients, details about their ages or whether they had underlying health conditions, citing patient privacy.

In China, which was hit first by the virus, just 4.3% of patients age 40 to 49 were hospitalized after developing Covid-19, according to a report published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases. It was even lower for younger people, with just 1% of those in their 20s and 3.4% of those age 30 to 39 requiring hospitalization, the report found.

Those gaps could be made up of differences in demographics, the share of people with pre-existing conditions or differing medical practices or resources. Italy, for example, has one of Europe’s oldest populations and people age 80 and up died at a rate of about 20%. In China, the fatality rate for the same age group was 15%.

“These cases in young and middle-aged people are striking,” said Paul Sax, clinical director of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. “This isn’t how it was originally perceived from afar. There are definitely people who are surprised that this is a severe infection in this group, people who were previously totally healthy and exercising and doing just fine.”

In New York, 77% of the 914 patients who died had a medical condition such as diabetes, lung disease, heart disease or asthma, according to the city’s health department. Only 1.5% were otherwise healthy, with another 20% of the cases still under review. A broader analysis by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a similar trend, that three-quarters of Americans who ended up in the ICU because of Covid-19 had one or more underlying health problems. Few people with such problems are able to recover without a hospital stay, the CDC said.
Risk Factors

Two-thirds of the U.S. is overweight or obese, factors shown to increase the risk of Covid-19. Nearly half of adults have high blood pressure. And 1 in 8 Americans haven’t visited a doctor in the past year, meaning that some may have health conditions and not know it.

Experts are seeing the same pattern emerging elsewhere in the U.S. as outbreaks grow. In Philadelphia, 56% of confirmed Covid-19 cases are under 40. A teenager lost their life in Los Angeles, a 12-year-old was intubated in Seattle, an infant was infected in Delaware and a 1-year-old baby died in Chicago.

For patients nursed through the infection with the help of a ventilator, there may be lasting health problems, said Ross McKinney Jr., chief scientific officer of the Association of American Medical Colleges. For even the youngest patients, doctors have to use ventilators set to high pressure, pumping in high levels of oxygen.

“Many will end up with damaged lungs and thereafter may be constrained in the future,’’ he said. “Any respiratory illness will make you sick, because you don’t have reserves, and things like running cross country or doing a 5K race may be out. You may not be able to be as active because your lungs don’t have the capacity anymore.”

The flood of young patients has been hard for doctors, said Jackson.

“It’s hard to lose anyone,” she said. But when physicians have to intubate patients in their 20s, 30s and 40s—that weighs heavy. “It’s the young, those with their full lives ahead of them who have no medical problems, they stand out. They are the ones that are hard to forget.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-in-young-people-ny-patients-skew-younger-some-die

Flags of (in)convenience…

You know that I have been concerned about this virus since I first heard about it and very concerned since the start of January. I watched the spread. My son and I were going to go to a big to DC for something he had planned to do for 2 years and were to travel by plane at the start of March. I started getting nervous that it would not be safe to do so as time went by, but there were still no official cases around here or in DC at that time. I kept watching and kept watching with increasing concern. I felt that we had about a 50/50 chance of the trip being safe by the time it was getting close and consulted my friend who is a doctor and specializes in researching infectious diseases. This person traveled to China in December and again in January to study the virus and the situation. His advice was that he personally was not concerned about travel within the USA at that time (very end of February) and that I should keep abreast of the situation as it was changing all the time, but that he had plans to fly after our trip even and was not concerned. He recommended I follow the CDC’s guidelines. I got sick and could not go, but had we gone, we might have been in contact with someone who had it because the event brought together people from all 50 states and then went to the capital, where some people were also there that day who had Covid 19 and were diagnosed soon after.

My points is that I am no expert, but someone who took this very seriously before anyone I knew except Chinese people, frankly. And I almost traveled by plane at the start of March because it was an important trip, we had paid a lot for it and planned for two years, and there were no travel warnings or official cases in this region of the country at that time. Things changed pretty fast after that. I remember the other thread where people talked about whether or not they should go on a cruise in the future and many felt it would be fine to go to areas where there was no outbreak and no current cases. The CDC didn’t add a ‘don’t go on a cruise’ guideline until well after various people here posted they thought no one should go on a cruise. It seems obvious not that going on one wasn’t a good idea, and I can’t relate to seeing the Diamond Princess and still going, but it is a very large world and many parts did not have the virus for quite some time in the beginning.

I like your post so much I’m simply quoting so more people see it.

Possible, but then Trump woud have to federalize the Guard and remove them from supervision by the Governors. And that might incur a lot of pushback from 50 Governors.

Sigh. Just because the governor hasn’t issued a state-wide stay-at-home order, it doesn’t mean that there is “zero social distancing”! Geez! I’ll repeat again - my family and most of the Floridians I know ARE practicing social distancing!

Cuomo just now closing the playgrounds. LA did this many days ago.

I don’t know if you read all of my post, but I wholeheartedly agree with you. Last year, at the beginning of boating season, we had way more than normal boat accidents and open water drownings. We certainly don’t need to put our emergency responders and health care workers at risk under current circumstances. I was just pointing out what the boat owners where I live are complaining about.

He was NOT a patient zero. Remember, he wasn’t abroad. He himself got infected somewhere else be it NYC where he worked, on the train or subway, by somebody else in the New Rochelle community, or by somebody else … He just happened to get extremely sick and as such ended up in NYC hospital where the doctors put lots of pressure on CDC and got him finally tested.

With all likelihood, there were quite a few patients zero in the NYC area who brought the virus from abroad.