According to an article in Hong Kongās South China Morning Post, which refers to a published research study in the medical journal The Lancet, thereāre several surprising findings about the virus:
The symptoms of the disease were first reported on 12/1/19, earlier than publicly announced by the local government.
The first person who developed symptoms has no link to the seafood market where the disease is believed to have originated.
Of the group of 41 very early patients it studied, 6 have since died, putting the death rate among this group close to 15%.
"The Thai government has faced accusations that it is prioritising tourism - China is Thailandās biggest source of tourists with nearly 11 million visitors last year - over public health.
The hashtag #crapgovernment was top trending on Twitter in Thailand on Saturday with more than 400,000 tweets. Users complained about the management of the virus and other health issues." (CNN)
āMeanwhile, a person in Orange County, California who had returned from a trip to Wuhan has been confirmed as the third confirmed case of the new coronavirus in the U.S. Sunday. Two other cases involved patients in Washington State and Chicago.ā (NBC)
"Beijing has warned that the spread of the deadly coronavirus is expected to accelerate, heightening concerns about an outbreakā¦
Ma Xiaowei, Chinaās health commission minister, also revealed on Sunday that the incubation period was between one and 14 days, and that the virus was infectious during its incubation period when people may show no symptoms.
This makes this outbreak different from Sars, another strain of the coronavirus which originated in China and killed almost 800 people in 2002-03, which was not contagious in its incubation period. āWe expect the outbreak to continue,ā Mr Ma said at a press conference, noting that the virus was spreading quickly." (Financial Times)
I have seen this year, starting late November , multiple patients with high fever, wheezing, tested negative for flu. It was an unusual pattern, because most of these folks had no previous lung disease. My impression was that it was a cold virus that spreads fast to the lungs causing wheezing, mostly with normal X rays . All recovered just fine after a few weeks of misery. I did not test them, since routine testing is not indicated for non hospitalized patients who are stable. None traveled to China.
Communist governments lie ( more that non communist ones ). I would not be surprised if this started much earlier and the Beijing authorities had to admit once the cat was out of the bag. I would not be surprised to find out that this is a virus escaped ( intentionally or by incompetence ) from a lab.
Of course, it could have been just a local cold virus ( a western, more subdued cousin of the Wuhan one )
The mayor of Wuhan has just announced that more than 5 million people have left Wuhan because of the holidays and/or the fear of virus infection recently, and 9 million residents still remain in the city (this puts the total city population, including non-permanent residents, at 14 millions).
Vast majority of them traveled domestically. A few of them, however, have gone to other countries. Thereāre confirmed cases in US, France, Australia, and other Asian countries related to these travelers.
I live in Orange County, CA, but Iām not the confirmed case. I feel like this whole situation is kind of like believing life doesnāt exist on any planet in the universe except for ours: people who think that an airborne or human transmittable virus that has already been found in multiple countries can still be contained are kind of deluding themselves?
Iāll admit Iāve wondered about this the more we learn about it. Is it truly nature or something far more sinister from ______? (an idiot or idiots hoping for chaos or testing something with perhaps worse intentions next time, but thatās all weād know)
Regardless of the source, the epicenter is ideal for worldwide spread - oodles of world commerce in Wuhan and a huge population to start with including many getting ready to travel due to the holiday and the fact that it canāt be seen for up to 2 weeks makes it almost ātoo perfect.ā
But Iāve only wondered and mused with family. Iām not claiming anything as fact. Weāre like most folks - watching without panic - but still watching. I assume the death vs recovery numbers (on the JH site) are due to wanting to make sure those who have recovered are 100% over it. The other confirmed cases are ongoing data points.
Iām not sure that was intentional. I suspect the first folks dealing with it didnāt think it was anything major - until healthier people started dying and lab tests showed it was new. Dec 1st wasnāt that long given the up to 2 weeks with no symptoms onset and it mimicking things already out there.
I agree we canāt completely trust politicians on such matters. Itās fortunate that we have a system where certain types of diseases are required to be reported directly to CDC by doctors/labs/hospitals. While in China, that system doesnāt exist and cases are only reported to the local government.