How people decide risk, how people believe “it will not happen to me, or I will get a mild case from C19”, what kind of risks do some people have anyway (speeding/driving recklessly, etc), how people deal with the unknowns, people that live paycheck to paycheck and are under financial stress during the C19 effects on businesses, etc.
Certainly there are going to be differences in various geographic areas/dense VS sparse populations, etc.
People are thinking how they may be living life differently, but they may fall into their comfortable routine once their perceived risk drops. Some things will change and people won’t have expected change, while some things people thought would change don’t change.
When it comes to the vaccine, what percent of the population would need to take it? So many of us are a little worried about a rushed vaccine but you know all of our kids will have to take it in order to go back to school whether it’s K-12 or college.
If people believe that, will they practice variolation, meaning intentionally getting infected with a low dose of the real virus in order to acquire (hoped-for immunity)? This used to be done for smallpox before smallpox vaccine (based on cowpox or horsepox) was discovered. Of course, it was much more dangerous than the vaccine (although if the historical smallpox vaccine were discovered now, it would be considered unsafe by today’s standards).
Does anyone else find that the mask interferes with your field of vision? Or is my mask too large? It is homemade.
I ask because our mayor now requires people to wear masks whenever we are outside. I wasn’t wearing the mask on my walks. There weren’t any other people close to me. I made sure of that. Now I am worried about a tripping hazard because of the difficulty in looking down.
I doubt it would be mandatory simply because of supply issues. It will probably be offered to medical and first responders first. Then essential employees, then most vulnerable, etc. it will probably be a LONG time before they have enough supply to REQUIRE it of anyone.
What they are is a country with a high percentage of single person households and low population density, other than Stockholm and a few other cities. I’ve also seen they don’t typically share close personal space with strangers. If true, they social distance naturally.
That said, I doubt the figures for NYC - very high density, subways, etc. - are at all indicative of what Sweden is going to require for practical immunity.
Just sunglasses. I’ll have to see if they fog up. Frankly due to the heat, I don’t see many people abiding by this when they are out walking.
The city has opened tennis courts (Yeah) but I can’t see playing tennis in a mask due to the restricted field of vision, the heat and breathing issues.
I’ve seen a range of 70%-95% necessary for herd immunity in various sources. Even if students are required to get it (and that is a slippery slope should a vaccine launch without typical safety data), that would still leave us short of herd immunity.
A significant proportion of adults would have to get the vaccine too.
And…there are many who likely won’t be able to get the vaccine, e.g,. patients who are immunocompromised (cancer, autoimmune disease, transplant, etc.), infants/very young, very old…could be more cohorts, once we know more about covid-19 and the disease effects.
I have the same problem with masks. I’ve made a couple of different patterns - including making smaller versions of the patterns - and the all affect my field of vision. I have a small face.
I haven’t worn a mask while outside exercising. It’s panic inducing enough to wear one when it make sense. As it’s gotten warmer I’ve had to remove the filter - so now it’s just a double layer of cotton.
The N95 masks which I wear for higher risk expeditions HURT. No matter what I do the nose wire rubs and irritates. I’ve taken to putting one of those foam ear plugs right at the bridge of my nose as a buffer.
More and more information points to the very low risk of infection in an outdoor environment. If our area were to require masks while outdoors I’d probably make a very small, single layer, open we weave cotton version of the Olson mask. Probably wouldn’t actually do much for me or others but it would be compliant.
UPDATE: Looks like Palo Alto is now requiring a mask anytime someone is outside. I’m sure the trend will filter south to my county
I spent two days isolating in our bedroom with a sore throat and headache, and got myself tested, because having to travel to the office on public transport every other day makes me paranoid.
My GP had told me that if I were positive, the track and trace authority would require me to make a list of all my contacts in the last two weeks. So, I spent my time making up that list in my head, just in case.
Even having scrupulously obeyed the law, and the loosening of the rules since Mother’s Day have been quite limited, the list I came up with, including the contacts those contacts must necessarily have had, was rather impressive. Doctors appointments, PT appointments, colleagues at work, the “one family at a time” meetings…it all adds up. It was quite eye opening, and reinforces why the test track isolate approach can only work when infection rates have been suppressed.
In San Diego we are supposed to wear masks, but there is not a requirement to wear one (just to have one with you) when exercising. My H and I are walking 5-7 miles a day. We choose to walk in areas that are not congested with people and carry our masks with us in case we can’t maintain a 6 foot distance. Last night we were walking into the UCSD campus with absolutely no people around us when a woman riding a bike came by us and asked where our masks were. I politely told her they were in our pockets as there were no people around and on the large campus we can easily maintain a 6 foot distance. She did not like my answer and shook her head at us.
I appreciate your kind response. I would hope you understand that I believe my students got the instruction and standards needed to accomplish what I want my students to accomplish. Word length changes and lateness do not need to impede that.
Also, just to be clear, it was not one 70 person writing class (that would be nuts!) but four 18-19 person classes. (Incidentally, they will be 25 person classes in the fall. Not sure how I keep the level of attention up with 100 of them…)
In any case, it still feels like most people are complaining online courses got too hard, not too easy. but maybe that’s just my anecdotal observation. My comment was to say why they might feel too hard with the changed delivery mode. I also want to repeat that, beyond the specific pandemic challenges, the baseline situations of my students are not, on average, what Bowdoin’s would be, demographically, and that, again, we are in the center of the pandemic. The widespread effect on my students is going to be very different from that of a group from all over the country.
I do appreciate the conversation. Have a great day!
Yes, people are getting testy about masks. I hope there are no more shootings of store employees, but owners are going to have to coach the staff. You can tell people they need a mask, but you can’t physically stop them. If they are presenting a danger, call police.
I don’t and won’t wear one outside walking in areas where it is easy to keep distance. My neighbor politely wears a mask when out walking her dog, but does not leash the dog. Aaaarrggghhh!
People on both sides sometimes get so convinced of the “rightness” of their argument they lose perspective. And not just about masks.
It’s so useless to speculate on herd immunity anywhere. We have a pretty good grip on the mortality rate now. Germany, where the hospitals and ICUs were never overwhelmed, came up with a mortality rate of 0.37 percent in a hotspot, and that was with mostly carnival goers and their families being infected, so mostly the active part of the population, aged 16 to 70 maybe, without outbreaks in any communal setting, such as college dorms, migrant worker housing or care homes, skewing the numbers. Take that a best case scenario - 1 in 270.
Worst case scenario, with hospitals overwhelmed and care home outbreaks uncontrolled? Spain has come up with something like 1.2 percent, that’s 1 in 83.
I understand that NYC, with about 20% of people showing antibodies, comes up with a fatality rate of 1.4 percent, that’s 1 in 70.
So, multiply the population in any region times 270, and times 70, to get the lowest and highest estimate for people with antibodies.
Divide the population by 270 and by 70 to get a best case/worst case scenario for deaths.
I just don’t see any other option than containment. Even poor countries can do this. Kerala did it, Vietnam did it. African countries did. it for Ebola. Would the US really give up?