I agree with this, and agree with @“Cardinal Fang”'s post above. I am merely reporting what I am observing on CC and in my community.
I’m with CF. No one in my very wide social circle, with differing political persuasions, rural and urban, spread across the country, is planning on resuming their pre-pandemic, economic consumption habits in the foreseeable future. No restaurants or unnecessary travel, no recreational browsing and buying in real life. Some have given up the idea of yoga classes, gym, salons. No hanging out at the corner gas station/convenience store. No choir. No theater. No movies.
Beyond that, people are saying they are trying to save as much as possible. Those that can are donating, but concentrating on food banks.
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I helped shop the economy back after 9/11, and shopped and traveled in 2008/9 doing my part of helping the economy. And I traveled overseas for longer than originally planned the summer of the European terrorist attacks.
In my opinion, the best help I can give in this crisis is just staying home. So I will.
The economy? Seems to me it will require some real thinking outside the box solutions, the next few years.
Some people say, listen to the science. But Science isn’t talking. People are talking. There are studies for this and studies for that, often conflicting. All studies on COVID-19, at this point, are short term studies, by definition. Sure, there are longer-term studies that are potentially relevant, but we don’t yet know how relevant they are to this particular virus.
I’m not saying to disregard scientific studies, but don’t just say “Science says”, because we all know thats not true.
Although I’ve read some news about polls gauging people’s comfort level with venturing out in to the new normal, I don’t know how accurate the polls are.
It’s been good to read the varying perspectives here on CC.
In my social & work circle, it runs the gamut from terrified (I’m not leaving the house until there is a vaccine or effective treatment) to shocking ignorance of the most basic concepts (science) and/or beliefs in wild conspiracy theories.
All that to say, I don’t know how people will behave when SIP orders are gradually relaxed.
Just working 2 carry out shifts at the restaurant was a sampling of very different behaviors.
IDK!
Oh I agree, the economic damage is permanent, or at least will not correct within my lifetime. On the other hand, there are plenty of people who apparently are willing to go out ( see pics of bars, beaches, etc) that at least some demand will return. CC is not representative of the population.
Nordstrom should have (and maybe they will) open a gourmet food section. Target has a food section and their clothing sections were open for browsing and trying on.
But I’d rather shop at Nordstrom. I see no difference between well spaced shopping at Nordstrom versus well spaced shopping at Target.
I’m not a fan of the overtime analogy. In sports, the rules of overtime are clearly defined at the beginning of the games. The rules for reopening have been constantly changing. This is more like a group of kids creating a game on the fly at recess and one side keeps changing the rules so they can win.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html
The richest neighborhoods fled for the country. It’s the same behavior as happened during the outbreaks of the Black Death, 700 to 400 years ago.
They’ve been gradually relaxed where I live. This is anecdotal, but I’ve talked to two business owners who opened within the past week. Business is not good. Neighborhood folks come in, say hello, make a small symbolic purchase. Not enough to cover rent, at this point. And although foot traffic isn’t bad outside of stores – more people walking, riding bikes, etc., in fact – many don’t venture inside.
For a lot of reasons. One of which is they’re worried about their own jobs, the overall economy, their finances – and they’re limiting spending. I know my husband and I are, his business is shuttered indefinitely. My neighbors next door - both doctors - have decided to put off buying a new car. His hours have been cut back. The other next door neighbors, in the oil & gas industry. Nuff said. Farther down the road, a professor. She’s busy and doesn’t have time to shop. She’s swamped with her online classes, and faces the summer session without the usual adjunct help (laid off.) Educated and mostly employed, these folks are holding onto their money, and I bet they’re not alone.
Some demand will return. That’s undeniable. But to get the pre-covid economy back, it’s not enough for some demand to come back. All of it has to come back, and that will not happen for some time.
While it’s true that CC is not representative of the population, much of CC (not all, but a considerable amount) is representative of a group of people who are accustomed to spend what the average American would think of as a lot of money. We have discussions here about things like trips to Europe, second homes and frequent meals out. Moreover, a considerable number of us are in the income bracket that means our children are full-pay at colleges that offer need-based aid to many students.
In other words, many of us have (or had pre-covid) plenty of discretionary income. If people like us are shutting down our spending, that’s a huge hit to the economy.
^yes
But I’m also reportedly on my low income rural neighbors.
They are wearing masks, social distancing, not hanging in groups. Extended family Sunday lunches are canceled for the foreseeable future. They go to the grocery when necessary. That’s it.
An official opening up isn’t going to change these behaviors any time soon.
No doubt our kids will be paying for this for most of their lives.
I am sure history will write various lessons learned and highlight mistakes made for next time.
Going to the beach can be free. And those bars you’re referring to – they’re mostly full of younger people, spending a few bucks on drinks. That’s not going to keep the economy going. Unless the masses start earning real money, and making real investments, we’ll become a nation of small shopkeepers… like India.
The devastating economic impact will result in huge tax increases, slashed budgets for any public services including education, and high deficit spending to service the debt we have incurred. Add to that far greater poverty and higher medical premiums, that our kids will suffer. I rather wish they were in Sweden now. Yes,it has drawbacks, but nothing like what we will face.
It is more like the virus made the rules, but we had to start playing the game without knowing the rules beforehand, and are only slowly finding out what the rules are. Obviously, it is hard to win without knowing what (all of) the rules are. But then some people apparently prefer to forfeit now instead of continuing to play to win.
I like to think all these intelligent, entrepreneurial kids we’re always bragging on, are already coming up with exciting and potentially lucrative ideas for the new economy and reality.
Pretty hopeful and confident about that actually, after watching the millennial farmers in my area pivot to online mid March and start selling everything they could produce. Totally new business model for them. When it worked for the first farm, they started a kind of coop. It’s still evolving. I think it’s turning into a general store.
I agree. Of course the rules are changing. Governments are having to react to a very fluid situation. I don’t hold that against them. Our governor switched from a statewide policy to a county-by-county one, which I think was the proper decision. I’m not going to call that flip-flopping.
Except that small businesses may be hurt more than others by these events. The more likely result is the acceleration of the trend toward concentrating wealth and economic power into big businesses and the already-wealthy and their heirs, with most of the middle class looking at downward mobility for themselves and their kids (i.e. look forward to joining the economically insecure lower class).
Funny you should say that. My daughter is planning to look into getting European citizenship (from me, I’m a dual citizen) so she could live/work in Europe. She was never interested in emigrating before. Now she thinks it will be a sound back up plan as funding for science research – her field – inevitably starts drying up in this country. “At least I’d have health care,” she said, shrugging. 
Sweden’s GDP doesn’t seem to be doing any better than its neighbors’. Lots of Swedes are voluntarily isolating, and also Sweden is not a closed economy, so hits to everyone else hit it too.