Why? You think the Swedish economy is booming? Its not. Because people didn’t go out anyway and they DID have restrictions, just not shut downs. There’s a difference.
https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e
IMO we’ll be a nation of big box stores. the small shopkeepers will not likely survive. Target, Walmart, Amazon…will prosper.
Of course they’ll be hurt more than others. But in cities (and I live in a city) small shop keepers are frequently the main source of necessities that aren’t bought online. Not everyone can - or even wants to - drive to the burbs to shop at the big box stores.
Lots of people are saying this, but I wonder if it’ll really be true in the medium term, say, one and a half years from now. Seems like with this upheaval, there’s an enormous opportunity for entrepreneurs in new businesses or old businesses re-imagined. People may not feel comfortable going to sit-down restaurants, but they still want to eat; there are businesses there. People might not feel comfortable going long distances for travel, but they still want vacation-like experiences; seems like there will be a boon in local guides and local experiences.
I agree that the rules have changed as we have learned more about the virus.
But there is not any agreement on what ‘playing to win’ looks like…not in the states, or the world.
I’ll cite Sweden again as an example of a country who certainly believes they are playing to win…but none of us know if their way will end up being correct, or not.
It doesn’t matter what happens in Sweden (except as data for future studies.) It’s a dramatically different nation from the US and whatever economic lessons it learns would be moot points here. Apples and oranges. Different planets, in fact.
In the near term, I think U. S. travel to rural destinations will increase and along with it RV sales.
I also think that with more people spending more time at home, home improvement projects and the purchases that go along with them will increase.
I don’t see movie theaters coming back. Why? I can watch movies at home. I think the same for sports, especially those with high ticket prices in the stadium. But the TV audience will grow. People miss their sports.
My point was (and still is) they believe they are ‘playing to win’.
By the time the US is through the pandemic, and we are dealing with the economic fall out, I can see a scenario where the total US rate of taxation ends up in the neighborhood of Sweden’s.
"IMO we’ll be a nation of big box stores. the small shopkeepers will not likely survive. Target, Walmart, Amazon…will prosper. "
Agree, Amazon will prosper. Walmart and Target will do fine online. But just as 711 type stores and small bodegas do well in big cities, small local businesses will sell necessities you either forgot to buy online, or don’t feel like getting into your car and driving to the burbs to get. At least that’s how I visualize it, from the perspective of someone who lives in a city.
I received a report from Nielsen today that indicates 1 in 5 people are more than willing to head back to bars and restaurants as soon as they are allowed to open.
That’s bad news for most bars and restaurants thinking of reopening. Nobody’s going to survive on a fifth of their former clientele.
I think we will do better as a small engineering firm than the larger ones in our area. We can do a bunch of tiny jobs and do fine, whereas big companies need large projects. And if the big companies lay off people, they will eventually need to hire small outfits like us to help them out so they don’t have to hire new employees.
That means business would be down, what? 80%? Is my math right? Good grief!
@Mwfan1921I
Yea, lol. Similar rate of taxation – none of the benefits :neutral:
Which means 4 out of 5 are not. Scary times for the economy.
I’m glad people have posted things about Sweden’s economy showing the whole story. Some folks seem to be putting them up there as some sort of Utopia, but they aren’t. Their economy is getting hit as hard as anyone else around them - and they have far more deaths. I don’t see where that’s any sort of win personally.
What keeps people “in” isn’t really rules (except the strict places like China, Jordan, etc, and after trying an easier route, France, Italy, etc). It’s seeing people die. It’s seeing the science out there. Those not wanting to “take their chances” won’t. We’re in that group.
Few are going to survive, period. Those Wal-Mart’s and Amazon’s pay low wages and have poor working conditions. Even the NY Times ran an article on how Generation Z will bear the brunt of this catastrophe. Fewer entry level jobs, low wages, high taxes, no services is the future.
I’ve been thinking about ucbalumnus’ post about authority. I don’t think it’s that so much as that people feel capable of analyzing their own risk versus benefit when it comes to where they go and what they do.
Some here won’t go to various places even after they are opened by the authorities. Those people have considered it and made their own risk-benefit analysis from what they know about their health and how they weigh their wants and needs. Others have made other choices. Those with vacation homes fled New York because they didn’t like the choice the authorities there gave them.
IOW, people don’t think that the government decisions are better than their own.
Probably not even universal healthcare ?
But we will probably get less for our money, if health care is any indication. The US and other rich countries’ governments spend similar percentages of GDP on health care. But the other rich countries get better results from that government health care spending, while in the US, private health care spending is much higher to cover the large gaps left in health care in the US.
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It depends. Carry out & delivery business could remain in this unusually high state, and help offset the lack of customers physically present in the dining room.
And although the bulk of the labor costs are in the BOH, having less employees on payroll in the FOH will help with costs.
H is very concerned about the escalating food prices. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.