I’d like to believe we will come out of this a better nation after this virus is history, with a vastly improved public health system and real social safety net programs. Because there will be other pandemics and if we don’t sort this out now we will be set back generations.
Plus, I’d like to believe we will have job programs like those instituted during the Great Depression. Our infrastructure is falling apart, our airports are antiquated, our grid is old and inadequate. But, we can’t have nice things in this country because “freedom”.
The businesses that will survive and prosper are those that will innovate to adapt to the new normal.
People like to put to Sweden on a pedestal as a model of success with this virus and yet they have one of the highest CV deaths per 100K in the world, higher than the U.S.
“That’s 343 deaths per million people, one of the highest mortality rates from COVID-19 in the world.”
Regarding the economy of Sweden:
"Riksbank, the Swedish central bank, has offered two economic projections for this year, both dismal. The brighter one predicts a GDP contraction of 6.9 percent; the other, with different assumptions, predicts a 9.7 percent drop of GDP. In either case, it’s a major recession.
Those numbers are no better than Sweden’s neighbors. Norway is projecting a 5.5 percent drop in GDP, Finland and Denmark about 6 to 6.5 percent. "
In summary, too early to tell whether Sweden’s approach to this pandemic is successful either from a health or economy standpoint; but it doesn’t look too good.
I just got back from the grocery store and it’s still really hit or miss around here for what one can get. Today produce and breads were great, plus there was actually TP. We didn’t need any, but it’s the first time I’ve seen multiple brands and packs making the shelves about 25% full. Most of the center aisles were light. Frozen foods were mostly gone (veggies, pizzas, etc, - ice cream was fairly stocked). Meat was light.
What I really, really enjoyed is the fact that we live in a terrific area compared to where some of y’all live. It’s deep red territory and always has been, but absolutely everyone was wearing a mask and respecting social distancing including waiting for people to “shop” or look at their list or whatever else was holding up a line. The cashier was super friendly as was the lady helping me get salmon for H’s birthday dinner later and the bakery lady who fetched me a cake he had ordered (made there). People in the parking lot were great - some nice (distanced) “hellos” as well as cars letting other cars go in front of them when they didn’t have to.
I went to the post office later to drop off a Netflix disc (outside in a blue box) and everyone going in and out of the PO at that time was also wearing a mask and seeming to be quite courteous to each other.
Having traveled a fair bit of this country (and planet) I know “nice” isn’t regulated to one country or political party or race/gender/whatever. Nice can be found anywhere. Good, bad, and ugly can be found anywhere - in any population.
I know from talks with my neighbors and things I see online that there are plenty of people around who disagree with masks or the virus in general, but when it comes to real life around here - we’re just not getting the folks who make it a hill to die on. We don’t even have a lot of cases immediately around us (11 in my zip code last I checked).
I’m thankful we chose to live here rather than some other places. Living in a community that cares about each other is priceless - regardless of how one votes or what they think about current policies. I’ll continue to shop as locally as I can to help our community survive this.
ps We already ate some blueberries from NC - thank you NC and those who grew/shipped them. They were delicious!
I don’t think it will be 80% down because I bet some percentage of those 4 out of 5 who said they wouldn’t be willing to go back already don’t go that often as it is. It depends how much the respondents frequented bars and restaurants pre-covid. Still a sobering number.
We’ve had discussions about whether health systems in the US were “overwhelmed.” Here’s another data point for the Yes side.
The University of California, San Francisco medical school posts its “Grand Rounds”," educational seminars normally aimed at the doctors who work at UCSF. Lately they have been all covid, all the time, and interested laypeople like me have been watching them. Nowadays they have researchers and clinicians talking about what is new in covid: drug trials, epidemiology, clinical results, all sorts of things doctors are learning about this new disease every week. We can watch and learn too.
Because San Francisco was lucky to be lightly hit by covid, some of the doctors who work there have gone on “missions” to other areas that needed help. Yesterday we heard the report of a couple of critical care doctors who went to a hospital in Queens. One described his experience when stepping into the hospital for the first time.
He expected to see a chaotic situation, but it was worse than what he expected. The minute he started there, in a hospital that he’d never been in, he was in charge of what used to be a ward for post-op surgical patients, but was now yet another covid ICU ward. Because it was normally an area for post-op patients who would be moved, there were no rooms, just curtains separating patients. He had two residents, one a radiologist and the other an orthopedic resident, and two nurses, to take care of 15 of “the sickest patients I’ve ever taken care of.” This is not normal; that’s way fewer care providers per patient than normal. He found it “shocking” that a hospital in a first world country would be reduced to this.
ESPECIALLY not healthcare… Heck, we won’t even have Obamacare… say goodbye to preexisting condition coverage… all you young uns with compromised lungs, courtesy of Covid…
Some hospitals in NYC were clearly overwhelmed. That did not occur anywhere else in the country, and there are reports that it should not have occurred in NYC either-the Times reports hospitals within 20 minutes of Elmhurst hospital had room while it was overwhelmed. NYC was an unmitigated disaster, but luckily other places were not.
I am sad about what happened in NY, but can we stop pretending that was commonplace? Maybe NY needs an investigation of what went wrong for it
That’s starting to change, at least in Colorado, where things are slowly opening up. My hospitalist neighbor says since the number of new cases at her facility has stabilized, they’re now expanding on other care/non-emergency cases and elective procedures. The one thing that worries her is how long it can take to treat someone with COVID. Weeks-long hospitalizations mean it can be a long time before beds/staff are freed to treat the others.
You also have to subtract those who lost their lives as they won’t be spending anymore. If my family’s typical, those ahead of me by one generation went out to eat essentially all the time - daily at least, but often multiple times per day (usually 2 of 3 meals). It’s that generation who is more likely to have died.
Some of mine are eager to get back out. Some wouldn’t think of venturing out. I’m not sure what the percentages are, but I know if they catch it and pass away (as many would with their age and health issues), they won’t be going out any longer.
My guess is those who would go out will come to a full stop if they see one of their friends die from it. Those I know who won’t go out are in hard hit NY and know people who have died. Those I know who are eager to are in a mostly unhit area of FL. They tell me it’s not in their area so they’re fine. Google tells me it’s in their area, but nowhere near at the levels of NYS.
My guess is that older people will be extremely reluctant to live in assisted living facilities in the future and will fight their children trying to put them in nursing homes.
I think that would only happen for anyone who didn’t understand statistics. 98% survival rate means 2 out of 100 die… or 1 out of 50 and with more recent news, more than that have side effects that could linger for months or forever - they aren’t sure.
We take risks. We scuba dive. We drive on highways. We have equines. We go to 2nd or 3rd world countries and eat the food.
98% survival rate probably sounds good to those who think flying on a commercial aircraft is dangerous due to crashes or that swimming in the ocean means you’re going to get eaten by a shark (both things we’ve been told). It might even appeal to those who feel certain they can count on the lottery to fund their retirement. To me, it sends chills.
If we could know that people are accurately and completely reporting their purchases, spending and travel, then it would be a worrying sign that a large sample of high discretionary income people were not spending. But I’m not so sure that people aren’t selective in what they choose to share. Even if they have a good reason, even if they don’t agree with some of the views of certain posters, people are less likely to share details that will put them in the crossfire. This is exactly why the polls were so wrong in the last election. The media were so sure of (and wanted) one result that they were insulting people who didn’t agree; when those people who didn’t agree were polled, instead of expressing what their true intentions were, they just didn’t answer or lied. Understandable result. IMO that’s probably happening here.
Instead of explaining that they are going out to eat or on a trip or buying something, people just aren’t mentioning it. Not everybody, and surely purchasing and travel are way down, but it’s not zero and people are still doing it, they’re just not discussing it.
In an TV interview today, an owner of several restaurants said he breaks it up in thirds: 1/3 will come back immediately; 1/3 will wait and watch to see how the first third fares; and the last third will wait until its safe, i.e., effective treatments and/or vaccine. But he noted that the last third, which includes seniors, also tends to spend the most money per meal. His conclusion, until a vaccine he is planning for the new normal at be 50-65% revenue.
He made one other point about bars…he mentioned that 70% of the weekly revenue occurs in only 16 hours, i.e., Friday night, Saturday night, and one other day, such as Sunday afternoon football. At this point he has no idea if he will even open his stand-alone bars if he can’t figure a way to social distance the patrons.