Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

Parent Cafe
3541

I haven’t been paying attention to the way states are counting deaths from coronavirus, assuming that they were all using the same methodology.

So I found this article really interesting as it relates to the low FL numbers. The author is an infection control expert at Memorial Sloan Kettering.

“In Florida, citing Covid-19 as the official cause of death requires a positive diagnostic test for the virus. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention use a different standard, counting probable cases of people who had the clinical syndrome, whether or not a lab test confirms it. This is also how the CDC reports seasonal death tolls from influenza and other respiratory illnesses during less politically charged times.”

“A recent CDC report has shown the profound impact of the latter two groups in New York City. Over two months, 13,831 cases in New York were lab-confirmed, an additional 5,048 were probable (with no lab confirmation) and another 5,293, of the total of 24,172, or 22%, died above the number expected on years of historic numbers.

In other words, New York’s overall number increased by almost 40% when you include the kinds of cases that Florida does not report among its 2,096 deaths.“

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/opinions/florida-confusing-covid-19-sepkowitz/index.html

3542

Closing down again.

Once again we are ignoring the warning signs.

“The forceful response reflects fears among China’s leaders about the potential for a fresh wave of infections as factories, schools and restaurants reopen across much of the country and the government touts its success in fighting the virus on the global stage. It also offers a preview of what governments around the world will likely face in the coming months as they work to restart their economies.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/world/asia/coronavirus-china-lockdown.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

3543

Your response implies that your protocol is “correct,” therefore Desantis’ is wrong. Chalk it up to differing opinions.

3544

Have you read the playbook?

Lots of guidance for key questions to ask:

“How is the pathogen transmitted?”

“Can the disease be treated successfully?”

I would certainly hope Fauci, Birx, and their colleagues didn’t need to reference this document. LOL

But it makes for good political theater.

3545

You do realize the playbook would be more than just medical protocols, right? It would include manufacturing of various goods, limiting export of those goods, where the command center would be, what kind of analytics is needed to track and trace the virus, centralized communication to the public…and the list goes on. Maybe helpful if you should read up on other countries’ playbook. LOL.

3546

As far as interior designer’s having booming business despite the next “Great Depression” coming - people with a lot of money still have a lot of money - no shocker there.

3547

Two thoughts:

@momzilla2D it’s always been forbidden (in private jobs and seeing public school districts) to mention nearly anything about an ex-employee, for example, when called for a reference other than verifying hours and rehireability. I wonder if we all feel that way due to perceived potential penalties and the governor’s office knows they won’t be sanctioned?

In all the government options, conversations, suggestions, etc., I have told my family that the government is making decisions about a population, not about a person. It’s up to you to choose which statistic group you are. a part of and your consequences are 100% your consequences, even if that thing (whatever it is) only happens to 1%, 10% etc. So be mindful in your choices.

Some group will be sick, have a stroke, dialysis, ECMO, death, etc., they can’t really care which people are which statistic. I am content to enjoy this down time, work as much as I am able, from home, remain as distant from others as I am able (because I’ve had an overly busy few years, I choose to view this time with no social expectations as a gift allowing me some much needed catch up on things that have been put off and also just mental rest); and just stay out of the pool population that becomes a statistic.

Yes, CCers, I fully acknowledge that many many people have jobs that put them in harm’s way. I have two adult kids working, one would be considered on the front lines, but also is provided PPE; the other is interacting with the public, which one is at more risk? And other people have even risky jobs or riskier lives, public transport, crowded cities, etc. None of us are swanning about, taking any extra risks, because, why, just why do it?

3548

That can apply to:

A. Risk of getting COVID-19.
B. Risk of bad result if one gets COVID-19.

Seems like a lot of people are willing to believe that they will not be the ones who get COVID-19 if they take risk A (e.g. by going to crowded places), but are not willing to take risk B (e.g. by variolation in order to “schedule” the sickness downtime and come out probably immune afterward).

Even lower risk B groups like college students do not seem to be rushing to variolate themselves in the summer, despite the fact that it would be more inconvenient to get COVID-19 during the academic year. In addition, if residential college students variolated themselves during the summer, they would bring herd immunity to campus, protecting more vulnerable faculty, staff, and community members at or around their campuses. But perhaps even they see that the (lower for them) risk B is too high to personally take a chance with.

3549

What does it say about analytics?

3550

We spent the morning (7am -9am) at the beach here in Palm Beach County. Absolutely gorgeous weather, beach was surprisingly crowded even at 7am. Some people were swimming, others just sitting out on the sand in groups of obviously unrelated people.

People stopped to talk and pet each other’s dogs on narrow trails leading to the sand. Did not see a single mask anywhere, and we saw at least 200 people at the beach. Honestly, if you didn’t know that C19 was happening, you’d never know it from the scene. Looks exactly like last year at this time to me.

I am leaving soon to get my first haircut since mid-March. I am particularly interested in whether any of the barbers or their families had any personal experiences with C19. I will report back later!

3551

The playbook should indicate data can be used to track the virus and analytics should be applied to model various scenarios. Other countries have used immigration data, insurance/medical data, phone data to do tracing and clear certain population of people to go back to work/school. Those countries kept their economy going. They didn’t have to do a complete shut down. They didn’t develop such capability AFTER the virus hit. They had computers set up and software ready to go. US only started to do analytics after the pandemic hit.

3552

Isn’t that just the worst? And I have had such bad experience with lawyers that I usually ask for a bigger retainer. They generally do pay eventually, but only after months and months of nagging. Interestingly, with one exception, my Hispanic clients are the best!

Of course this is just anecdotal.

I’ve got a bunch of antsy clients who just want to be allowed to move forward with things we’ve started.

Regarding the Comfort - first they only wanted healthy patients and that was a non-starter. But I don’t get it still, there were hospitals that absolutely were overwhelmed in Queens and the Bronx, but apparently not enough overwhelmed to warrant moving patients.

There are composting toilets at a place in PA where we go kayaking. They produce quite a bit of a breeze on your bum, which means they don’t smell, but it’s disconcerting. I wish our composting toilet in Vermont worked as well. It dates back to 1976 and I think the plastic is falling apart, but there’s no easy way to replace it.

3553

@OhiBro

You can google Obama pandemic playbook to read it.

It’s 69 pages and chock full of information and extremely detailed on pandemic response.

3554

I read it before I made my first post.

Very general stuff.

3555

You read 69 pages between the time I mentioned the playbook and your post?

It is extremely detailed and not “very general stuff”

3556

You mentioned it the first time 14 hours ago. And it has been mentioned many times by others before that.

3557

The Ebola pandemic playbook you reference is comprised of decision making rubrics (many of which already existed) which are important, but there aren’t details on capturing data, doing contact tracing etc…perhaps that is what @ohibro means?

Another ‘playbook’ example is the CDC’s influenza pandemic implementation plan…this is much more detailed and covers strategy and actions, in addition to decision making. There is much more detail surrounding data analytics, contract tracing etc.

3558

I postponed my laundry room/ pantry remodel for the time being. It’s a 5 week job but I don’t want workers in my house at this time and do not want to be without my washer and dryer. Do not want to go to a laundromat or impose on friends by being in their homes during a pandemic. I also do not want workers in and out of my house - even with the precautions they would take.

Paid $5k deposit back in December out of total of $34k for job.

They were ready to start job at end of April.

It’s a large contractor, with over a 100 employees (they don’t use any subcontractors.) who I’ve been doing business with for years. They have been extremely understanding.

3559

What has anyone heard about US manufacturing of PPE lately? Until we have more effective treatments and a vaccine, that should be the top of everyone’s list of priorities. We need it for nursing homes, non Covid-19 medical care, dental care, and getting ready for any flare-ups that occur as things re-open. But press coverage of this has been abysmal.

There is plenty to read about where to find hand sanitizer (which is vastly overrated compared to hand washing with soap and water), whose pets did what on some company’s Zoom call, Ben Roethlisberger’s haircut, which gym owner risked her business license to start illegal yoga classes, and whether movie theaters will go out of business for good. But surely some newsroom somewhere still has actual news on their mind and is keeping track of this.

A FEMA task force is on it, great. But how’s it going, and why isn’t the answer to that at the top of the news every day?
https://www.fema.gov/fema-supply-chain-stabilization-task-force

3560

Indeed I completely agree that government is almost always slower than local/state/private. But a good government, or a good leader in any job, isn’t about doing everything yourself, it’s all about leadership - leading, directing, commanding, enabling, removing roadblocks, and inspiring others to do their jobs. We just don’t have that at the moment.