Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

@maya54 China has people stay in quarantine hotels for 2 weeks when they arrive and they don’t have heating or air conditioning on in those places because they found virus in one of the two types of air systems and believe it spreads that way. I was not talking about either thing you mentioned. There was some other study that found it in an air sytem.

Think of it as analogous to beaches, parks, etc. being closed because some people use them without following the social distancing rules.

If I am the one who is messing things up here, I’m sorry. I will try my best to not be political.

We just had a nice walk followed by dinner that tasted great. I made a stir fry for DS and DH with rice and a veggie dish for myself that was nothing unusual but somehow tastes great. :slight_smile:

I think it’s the wrong question. The damage done to the Consumer psyche – traditional economic fears – is vast and significant. It will be 2+ years before peeps become comfortable spending money, and by that time, B&C are highly likely and even A (vaccine) has a good chance of being successful. And of course, ‘normal’ assumes that restaurants and bars still exist to patronize for those that are so inclined. As most restaurants run on a thin margin, they will not survive, so expect to see boarded up windows in communities for a long time.

We are nearly 2 weeks with single digit new cases in our state. People are mostly continuing to socially distance and wear masks in public. Traffic is minimal. Yesterday, 1 case in entire state. Today again 1 case in entire state.

We have to figure out B & C and then hopefully get A as soon as it is developed and properly vetted to get people back in crowds again and widespread travel. Right now, there just too many unknowns and I hear it in the voices of the lung specialists every time I participate in webinars or calls. They are still using their best guesses but still lots of guessing.

We have so many elders in our state and so many with asthma, diabetes, obesity, heart and other conditions. Going back to pre-covid19 too soon without being guided by science is dangerous and would undo what has been accomplished by sheltering in place.

Except Hawaii is a real special case, being at the cross roads of the Pacific and a tourist haven. From a health safety matter, HI really can’t open until a vaccine is widely available. Tracing doesn’t add much value when millions of people arrive and leave every week (during “normal” times) from dozens of different countries.

Actually, we “only” hosted 10 million last year in our state. Not sure if that counts all the layovers too or how things are counted. New Zealand and Australia have similar issues on how and when to reopen tourism.

So far, I’ve been pleased that the restaurants we like and patronize are still open and doing takeout. Our state is very used to takeout, but now the high end restaurants are doing takeout, which is unusual for them.

It would be nice if we local residents can safely be tourists for our neighbor islands, since it’s all instate. Right now, any inter island travel requires the 14 day quarantine too.

I think Hawaii needs a reliable on the spot 15 min test for every arriving tourist. Those who fail would go into quarantine. When this is available the tourism will restart.

The problem, as I understand it is that the person may be incubating the virus and not test positive at that moment/day but maybe a few days later (or a false negative or positive). Japan is having cardboard beds while people await the results of their testing.

Perhaps if quarantine could be shortened from 14 days and the person have two negative tests x days apart and no symptoms? I am not sure the science is there on a period shorter than 14 days and how far apart 2 negative tests would nee$ to be.

Not logical. Who is gonna pay for a ~14 day quarantine, when many/most? only fly into the Island for a one-week stay. And, can’t send them home if they fail a blood test.

I don’t see how prohibiting the sale of seeds has much impact on whether or not people wear masks. The fact that she overreached has led to the ridiculous protests and the refusal to wear the masks that we are seeing in Michigan.

Part of the problem, I think, is a sense that short of a vaccine or much more effective treatment - things that could, sadly, be very far off - some of the arguments in favor of maintaining quite restrictive policies don’t seem that they would have any logical end date. Even more modest metrics , like “develop faster tests, and find a more effective way of contact-tracing and quarantining” offers a fuzzy goalpost that we don’t seem to be making a lot of progress on - and that may be impracticable when dealing with large populations.

At first, the logic was “flatten the curve so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.” That made a lot of sense, and was easy to grasp for the average person: as long as the rate of hospitalizations and deaths keeps going up, it is pretty clear that you have to maintain lockdown conditions. When we see that rate start dropping dramatically, it will be time to begin gradually easing restrictions.

Only, in a lot of places, it is clear that that has already happened, so now the logic is “But if you do reopen, the curve will go back up, so you can’t relax restrictions.” Which makes a certain amount of sense, but also leads to the conclusion that one can NEVER relax restrictions - again, until a vaccine or treatment, which could be years off. It is understandable that even responsible, reasonable people aren’t comfortable with the idea that the government, even with the best intentions, now essentially has a blank check to indefinitely curtail freedom of movement in significant ways: if the numbers go down, that just means we’re doing a good job and need to keep it up. This is also true of the argument “Do you think x number of lives are expendable?” Of course not; no life is expendable. But again, taking that argument to its logical extension, we again arrive at the conclusion that restrictions can never be lifted.

That isn’t tenable, and not just for trivial reasons. I think a lot of people chafing against restrictions would understand if it took a long while for theatres and sporting venues to open, or for any large gatherings (over 100? over 50? over 20?) to take place. But people want to be able to visit their loved ones. They want their kids to get an education - and for a lot of families, online education is not a real substitute. They want businesses to survive, and yes, they want to enjoy life in what they deem to be a safe and responsible way, taking due precautions against those who are less responsible.

This is why places that have seen significant improvement in numbers need to be able to graually open up. Start with things that seem lower risk, like allowing most outdoor activities that can be done while social distancing, or allowing non-essential businesses that don’t invite close contact between people to open with occupancy limits. If the numbers look good after two weeks, allow people to go to homes of close family and friends, as long as no more than ten people are present, and open restaurants with outside seating. And so on. If the numbers get worse, roll back. People in higher risk groups will be encouraged to be proportionally more cautious, but within the law, people can make their own risk assessments.

Otherwise, there’s really no metric that would ever allow us to open.

They need to get tested before they fly — keep planes, crew, airline staff, airport employees and other passengers healthy. Their provider needs to issue a certificate that they are healthy, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t get exposed/infected right afterwards. I think we have to learn from other place/countries who are allowing travel — what works? We know what doesn’t work—allowing everyone in. That’s why other countries are having 2nd waves Of COVID-19, from infected incoming passengers (often US and European).

Why would anyone bother going to Hawaii with such rules? There are closer beaches one can access without such hurdles. The tourism industry there will take years to recover

^Maine has the same rules, at least through August. We just can’t have 35 million visitors a year as we have had in the past. :frowning:

You guys are forgetting that there are already millions of people in the US who had COVID-19 and recovered. NYC will probably have herd immunity in a few months. I am in Bergen County, NJ, I have friends and coworkers whose families had it and everyone recovered. These families could take a gamble and go for a one in a lifetime cheap Hawaii vacations.

Totally not surprised.

Sadly it’s just going to get worse.
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“The U.S. saw 2,909 people die of Covid-19 in 24 hours, according to the data, which was collected as of 4 a.m. ET on Friday.
That’s the highest daily death toll in the U.S. yet based on a CNBC analysis of the WHO’s daily Covid-19 situation reports.
The country’s deadliest day comes as state officials weigh reopening parts of the economy and easing stay-at-home orders.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

Indeed this is a great article, well worth reading. It’s equal opportunity in how it criticizes politicians; it has nothing good to say about the President and his administration. The main point is that in a pandemic, politicians should listen to the scientists and allow scientists to lead decisions. Moreover, the article says public health officials rather than politicians should be the public face of the situation. When a politician is the person who delivers public information, people not of that politician’s party might tune it out.

Jurisdictions that followed this advice, not just Washington but also Northern California, have had better results than jurisdictions that didn’t, such as the disastrous federal response and the tardy New York response.

In Northern California, we’ve had cases here since January (we now know). We’ve been lucky, but also our boring sober public health officials have been good.

New York was unlucky, but they could have done a lot better job if they’d acted earlier. Lives would have been saved. Neither Cuomo nor (especially) de Blasio were following the increasingly frantic advice of their public health officials.

Seoul’s subway carries about two billion riders a year. South Korea has had 250 covid-19 deaths.