Seoul’s subway is spotless. NY?
Which places have seen the daily cases drop dramatically? I can only think of a few. New York, certainly, but the numbers are still so high there. Washington. Where is else is seeing big drops?
Actually it is you that is forgetting that there is no scientific evidence that herd immunity actually exists for COVID.
@cap, we got lucky. It didn’t look like the flight path would go by us. The maps showed it started in Rock Hall on the Eastern shore and went west from there over the Bay to Baltimore. But right after I posted, around 11:15, I heard the roar and raced outside. The Blue Angels and Thunderbirds flew right over my neighborhood. They were headed East over the Bay so I assume they were on the way to Rock Hall.
Small consolation. I have seen them every year that they have performed at USNA since 1995, only missing the couple of times that they couldn’t fly due to weather. We sponsor several mids who are graduating this year so canceling Commissioning Week is a huge disappointment. 
I am not aware of any studies that proved that a recovered CV-19 patient can get CV-19 again. Tests on monkeys were negative. They are collecting blood from the recovered CV-19 patients for transfusion. Herd immunity has to exist, at least, this is what Swedish government thinks.
We’ve seen what it takes to get a third of the way to herd immunity (presuming such exists) for New York. I doubt there’s much appetite to do the same thing again, twice. I’m confident that pretty much anyone who works in a New York hospital would vehemently oppose such a plan.
Herd immunity in NYC will happen by itself. Just in case they now have empty temporary hospitals in the Javits Center, National Tennis Center and elsewhere. NJ hospitals are currently below capacity and they also have a few temporary hospitals.
My daughter’s Investment Bank is mumbling that they will make her work onsite in Manhattan starting July 1st but I doubt it will happen. Wall Street was always against WFH.
I work at a global financial company that is not WS and our CEO is very happy how we all WFH. He even mentioned on investor call that our company may realize savings on real estate down the road.
The Swedish government can believe whatever it wishes, but it’s not backed by scientific evidence.
And honestly, given how crappy Swedish infection and death rates are compared to their neighbours, I’m not inclined to take their word about this.
We do however have evidence of people testing positive again and with symptoms. Relapse? Reinfection? No one knows because we don’t have the data yet.
There’s also no widespread proof of antibodies. WHO just released a report about this a few days ago.
And IF we do achieve some sort of herd immunity we have no idea how long it’ll last.
(This is just a general statement, not directed at anyone.) Oh yeah and in order to achieve natural herd immunity, you have to kill off susceptible people. How many depends on how many are exposed and what the death rate is but you are explicitly saying, by advocating natural herd immunity, that you’re ok with killing off a significant portion of our population.
We don’t have data that allow us to make this claim. We don’t know if having the virus confers any protection. If it does confer protection we don’t know to what degree, or for how long.
Umm, a one-second google search will yield this from WHO:
Hopefully we will find herd immunity, but absent scientific evidence that it exists and for how long, no one should be planning on it anytime soon, at least not “in the next few months”.
It remains to be seen whether wearing homemade masks turns out to be the pandemic version of security theater. As recently as the end of March, the Surgeon General was telling us wearing a mask improperly can actually increase your risk of getting COVID-19 compared to not wearing a mask at all.
I’d like to jump in & correct a possible misunderstanding.
Some tests (PCR) will be “positive” because the test is detecting virus fragments or virus “litter”.
Source:
TWIV (This Week in Viralogy)
That is not equate to having an active infection —- with a replicating transmissible virus.
IME, there is over-simplification in news reports about tests & test results.
Carry on!
Generally English show ponies, no specific breed. We started heading toward Welsh, but then found most buyers wanted a type, not papers, so we adapted and went for that type. It includes QH, Welsh, and TB mostly. I bought what I liked for broodmares. At our height we had 28 ponies… now we’re down to just the final 3 adults and sell the offspring. I’d sell the adults too if I found the right buyer TBH (two broodmares and our stallion). It’s a phase in my life that’s all but over now - no regrets. Our ponies did well with a couple even making it to National Pony Finals. We just bred though. Their new owners took them to the show ring - or enjoyed them at home - their choice.
Times like this I get wistful for riding again though (vs just breeding and raising). If she stays here long enough I might just drag my older bones up on the two year old, though it’s been over a decade since I saddle broke one so who knows?
I must admit that those of us with lung conditions have great difficulty tolerating a tight-fitting face covering for any length of time. Most of us are still trying to wear SOMETHING (like a bandana or similar), to show we are trying to be protective of others. I honestly don’t believe it protects anyone much.
Wearing a section of pantyhose or similar over cloth mask, to better seal a cloth mask (as I posted in prior thread and has been posted up thread) improves the seal but makes mask tougher to tolerate wearing.
Many predict there will be a second wave of infections and perhaps additional waves.
@roycroftmom, I fail to see how clean a subway system is has much to do with anything. The novel coronavirus isn’t being carried by rats and Seoul subways are just as crowded as NYC ones.
The NYC subway cars are finally being cleaned and sanitized overnight. They are generally so filthy that walking on them and inevitably touching the bar, strap, or seat if you find one, exposes one to numerous germs and viruses. The general hygiene of Koreans in wearing masks in public on subways was not followed by NYC until the last week or so. I don’t blame the rats at all for the conditions.
@PurpleTitan - I was just going to ask the same to @roycroftmom. It just seem kind of silly to me. One of first outbreaks around NYC was at a synagogue. I am sure the synagogue was very clean.
What will happen depends upon the next experiment. Gov’ts are reopening. Plenty of people are volunteering as guinea pigs. If numbers return to skyrocketing it will be a long time before the majority want to return to normal regardless of who/what tries to inspire them. If numbers start to decrease due to the weather improvements, folks actually social distancing/being careful, or the virus mutating and not being deadly any longer (or whatever - put in your own reason), then folks will see and start to come out of their houses because the high danger will have passed.
The more people who know people that get affected, the worse it will be because it will become meaningful to them. That’s just the way humans respond.
Personally (vs human nature), I want to see better treatments and confidence from doctors seeing the cases (vs those not really dealing with it at all and just offering their 2 cents on theories). I want to know the already discovered potential long term effects go away or can be prevented. I need science to show this - not one person’s guess. I don’t give a hoot what gov’ts - or my neighbors - do. We’re acting on our best guess for ourselves as things potentially open up.
Around me - I spent some time discussing with more neighbors today, all from a distance - most are worried and want utmost caution. They aren’t interested in going back to work unless it’s safe. One does work outside the home and is hoping it stays safe. They’re worried about re-emergence and the economy, wondering what the best response is. We don’t pretend to know, but they’d fit in with your poll showing most feel it’s too soon for reopening most things and they don’t plan to head out soon. Time will tell.
That’s most. Then there’s that one who is sure she had it back in Sept and is trying her best to get us to relax and trust God. She wants everything open and feels most things are made up or made out to be worse than they are for political reasons. If I weren’t solid in my faith (mine, not hers), she would turn me completely away from Christianity TBH.
We’re all neighbors and friends. Others just roll their eyes at her. We remind ourselves that everyone is “normal” until you get to know them!
Every one of us has offered to help each other out if we have needs. H helped an older neighbor out today with his water. He helped “Trust God” folks out last week. My guys also shot a wild Tomcat attacking family cats to the point they had to go to the vet, even killed one - we’d been after that one for about a month now and the neighborhood worked together to get it done. There are more things I could list. Through it all everyone has been great at keeping their distance - just in case. The one family rolls their eyes at it, but they have no problem doing it - no reminders needed.
I’m pretty sure we’ll be ok helping each other get through this. I wish all neighborhoods were like ours where even those who have differing ideas can get along and survive. When I read some stories on here, I’m glad I’m here and not there. Even when I venture out to our store or for take out I’ve yet to see anyone belligerent or pushy about social distancing and now all have masks.
@Creekland I was talking with a young man today who was telling he breeds English Fells (?) ponies. The one the queen prefers according to him. It was quite interesting. He said they are in between the size of Shetland and larger horse breeds. Is that similar to your horses?
This question relates to does the thread because he was feeling down because most of his buyers are from ny and Ct areas and he has to tell them they can’t come to his farm. I don’t think it’s a rule other than his own precaution.
OK, I will replace
“Herd immunity in NYC will happen by itself.”
with
“Majority of people in NYC will be infected with CV-19 in a few months”
Unless we all continue to hide at home, then it will take more time.
We now have a new manna - contact tracing. We cannot open until we have a reliable contact tracing framework and quarantine facilities everywhere.
Some random person will call and tell you that you were in contact with an infected person and now you have to quarantine for 14 days. It worked very well in Korea and Vietnam and, of course, it will work in NYC.
Sweden does what makes sense for Sweden. Hide vulnerable people, pay them some for not working and let everyone else get infected in a controlled manner. 40% of population lives alone, population is smart and generally healthy. Large number of deaths are in immigrant communities (for a number of reasons).
Korea does what makes sense for Korea. They are battle hardened from all the previous pandemics, they are a homogeneous and obedient society with the notion of common good.
Norway is so rich, they can hide at home until there is a vaccine or a cure.
USA is not any of these countries and their solutions unfortunately may not work here.