The same Michael Levitt who predicted in March that Covid 19 was soon going away? Guess we know how that turned out. https://www.latestlaws.com/did-you-know/nobel-laureate-and-biophysicist-michael-levitt-predicts-covid-19-to-soon-go-away/
There’re lots of speculations, conspiratorial insinuations, but they aren’t based on facts or sciences. There’re a lot we don’t yet know about the virus, but some facts are well established:
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Animals harbor the majority of world’s viruses. Some of the viruses jump from animals to humans throughout human history. Most of the time we don’t even know the exact origin or mechanism. The speculation that the virus was man-made has no scientific basis. All the world’s foremost scientific experts in this area have concluded that if the virus were man-made there would have to be generic markers and there was none.
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This particular virus had its first major outbreak in Wuhan, China. All it means is that the virus became highly transmittable among humans there. However, it could be present in humans but just not yet highly transmittable before the first outbreak.
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Wuhan government tried to cover up the initial outbreak to avoid the disruption of its planned activities before and during the Chinese New Year. It probably didn’t know how highly transmittable this virus is (if it did, it should have known that no one could cover up such a highly transmittable disease). We don’t know the culpability of the central government.
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Once the central government there realized the high transmissibility of the virus, it ordered a citywide and later region-wide shutdown. The shutdown was unprecedented in history and unthinkable in societies like ours. Whether we agree with it or not, it was effective in stopping the virus within China. It was a little late, however. It was estimated that if the shutdown were ordered just 5 days earlier, 2/3 of the cases and deaths in China wouldn’t have occurred.
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Unless a shutdown similar to China’s were implemented worldwide, the virus was going to spread. Spanish Flu managed to spread worldwide before there was even air travel.
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What helps viruses spread is we humans tend to ignore things happen in other foreign places. Our mistakes and ignorance help the virus spread and become a pandemic. Our continued mistakes and ignorance will help the virus survive and comeback in a second wave, unfortunately.
This is the first poll I’ve seen about teachers and schools:
Has anyone else seen any others? It doesn’t even touch staff returning, just teachers and students. There are also other questions they asked if anyone wants to see the whole article.
“If schools reopen this fall, nearly 1 in 5 teachers surveyed said they weren’t likely to return to teaching. Among teachers 55 and older, those with the most experience, one in four said they probably wouldn’t return.”
“There are qualms among parents as well. If classrooms reopen this fall, parents by 59%-36% say they would be likely to pursue at-home options, such as an online classes or home schooling. By double digits, men were more likely than women to consider pursuing those alternatives. Those with lower household incomes were more interested than those with higher incomes, and racial minorities were more interested than whites.”
It will be interesting to see if parents really pursue homeschooling. It appears to be a challenging alternative which requires organization, discipline and commitment by the whole family. I am not surprised women have a more cautious view of it as the burden is likely to fall on them.
But there are oodles of options now for online classes. A small number in our district already chose that over brick and mortar school. I’m guessing they’ll become far more popular.
I wonder if some of the teachers who leave will head to online class teaching for these organizations.
The successful homeschool parents in my region spent an enormous amount of time on it and it often prevented the teacher/mom from working outside the home. There are many great homeschool options with successful outcomes, I just believe it is much more work than some expect, and find it interesting that it is men who find it much more appealing in the survey. I wonder if they understand what is involved and expect to do the work themselves.
'Tis amazing how much people will dismiss when they really want to believe something. Facts don’t matter. Why would you think “recent” previous wrong predictions would?
In my area it really seems people have picked their sides and they’re sticking with them - facts, et al, be _____ed.
The story a pp posted about bots being the big thing spreading fake news was interesting. The vocal minority eats it up. I wish they would do more polling about what typical Americans think. All I’ve seen so far don’t agree with the minority, but life changes daily at this point.
I agree with all of this, and adding that even if the kids are doing part, or all, of their classes online, someone still has to be home with them all day. Someone also has to manage the online schooling processs…including identifying providers, choosing classes, creating transcripts, etc.
Many of the parents who stay home to homeschool ultimately learn that returning to the workforce after X years can be difficult.
Add:
- The rest of the world cannot/should not trust any statements made by the government of China.
Again, homeschooling is different than the online options available. I homeschooled two of mine from middle school through high school and the third in middle school. I’m well aware of what it takes to do it “well.”
Many also don’t care if they do it well. They aren’t aiming their kids for college. Education isn’t a high priority for them. “Who needs algebra/geometry/etc?” is a common phrase I’m used to hearing. But that’s all different than online.
For those who want them, there are options. There always have been, but now it seems more are looking. I’ll admit I didn’t foresee that aspect of schools reopening. I only had inklings of the school teacher/staff side of it.
Or the US at various levels.
I’ll admit I know nothing about it except that this is one option some of our online students choose (prior to Covid).
A quick google search seemed to show more.
With 0.01% of the population of the US having died (outside of nursing homes), I'd say C19 is basically over. Maybe it took six weeks instead of the four that Levitt predicted. The US never locked down the way China did, and yet the early predictions of 2.2 million people dead in the United States now look even more ridiculous.
Let’s revisit this after the predicted second wave never hits in states that are aggressively reopening like Florida and Texas.
One of the great things about homeschooling is that it doesn’t have to follow a Monday through Friday 9-3pm schedule or take place at a desk, so many parents are able to work while they homeschool. But it requires a strong support network. Our groups have a lot of small business owners, but there are plenty of other careers represented. Those with younger kids get help from relatives, friends, and other homeschoolers. Homeschooling does take time, especially when the kids are younger, but the older the kids are the more self-directed they become.
There are dads who happily take on the responsibilities of homeschooling. Others pick up the majority of household tasks. One of the challenges many families mention is that men traditionally earn more, so while many would love to be more involved in the day to day homeschooling activities it’s just not affordable. But a lot of people make it work.
Homeschooling is a lifestyle choice. Since many families are reevaluating priorities after staying home the last couple of months, it wouldn’t be surprising to me a large number chose homeschooling, at least short term. It’s not an irreversible decision.
A former homeschooling mom
eta. Our homeschooling community leaned towards unschooling. Most students ended up with advanced degrees.
I have already provided the source of that data point (0.01%) here:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/22827625/#Comment_22827625
My sister is a school teacher - elementary special ed. She is one of the top literacy experts in her field. I have never seen her this stressed, and that’s saying a lot considering everything she’s been through the past five years. She is 54 and I know she would quit teaching if she could afford to.
She is the reason I decided not to homeschool my kids. She said frequently, “I’m a TEACHER and I know I couldn’t homeschool my kids well!”
I enjoyed that stage of life so very much. But it’s not for everyone. I’m no evangelist.
We loved our homeschooling days - lads included! But yeah, it’s certainly not for everyone. Different strokes for different folks.
It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the fall. What the virus does over summer will undoubtedly influence many people, but just yesterday there was another internal job offering posted at the school where I work. Every year there are some. Turnover happens. This year there just seems to be more.
It’s a pandemic. As much as we would like to think it possible we weren’t going to close out the rest of the world and keep it away. People were going to die. More people are going to die. It’s not as deadly as was initially thought. We have to learn to live with it.