Similar studies are now starting to come out demonstrating that disparate lockdown and social distancing measures applied in various U.S. states had little to no apparent influence on outcomes. I am still reviewing some of the literature, but will post links to a few studies when I feel like I have a handle on it.
We are now entering the realm of social psychology, where people will resist furiously any evidence that their sacrifices were for nothing.
I don’t think anyone is minimizing the tragic deaths of 100k in the US. The per capita COVID death rate in most of Europe-UK, Ireland, Belgium, Holland, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden-is much higher, and there does not appear to be the same degree of public angst and frenzy. Perhaps those countries have more experience with adversity, or less expectation of a risk free existence than here.
Our local hospitals have begun to run ads asking the public to please come in if they are ill. Apparently the media has scared people so much that they are not going to the ER even for heart attacks, strokes, or burst appendix. More are dying at home,as a result, some of whom could have been saved.
Just an observation about how “underwhelmed” the medical system is here in Florida.
My S21 had been suffering with two ingrown and infected toenails for about four weeks (unbeknownst to me). When I found out, I handed him the pliers and some alcohol, but my wife went crazy, hahaha…
So, we did a telemedicine appointment with his primary care physician, who recommended taking oral antibiotics first. I told the doctor that that course of treatment was a nonstarter (S21 has only taken antibiotics once in his life, based on the risk-averse and wrong recommendation of another pediatrician years ago).
We were then referred to a podiatrist in-network, but apparently the request from the primary had been entered into a system maintained by the insurance company, because by the end of the afternoon we had received three (!) calls from podiatrists essentially asking for the business.
We chose one based on a bit of internet research, and got an appointment for the very next day at 3:30pm. We arrived at 3:15pm, were immediately whisked into a treatment room, where I sat in the corner while TWO doctors and TWO nurses and an additional tech person worked on S21, each foot simultaneously by a “team.” All the work was completed by 3:35 pm (which included local anesthetic and removal and reshaping of part of each nail), and I literally had not completed filling out all the paperwork before S21 was getting out of the chair!
If you need something done medically, it seems like now is the time to do it.
Breaking news from the med school front… my lad’s CS exam (and everyone else’s) is cancelled - all exams for a year to a year and a half. Glad we didn’t make reservations for him to fly to LA in July. Also assuming medical places aren’t very optimistic about the near future clearing up.
I realize this doesn’t affect many, but thought the change in topic could be helpful for those skipping the back and forth bits!
The paper cited in 4520 is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed or published. It also does NOT say that social distancing doesn’t work, only that the severe lockdown measures may not have reduced the number of deaths better than less restrictive social distancing. It also only uses deaths, not case numbers. It defies logic to think that if New Yorkers had continued to work and commute in the City with maskless crowds that the number of cases and deaths would not have been far worse. However, the experience in certain Asian countries shows that social distancing, masks, and contact tracing may limit cases without requiring a full stay at home or closure of all businesses.
It seems logical to think that teachers that are close to retirement age who can afford to, may retire early.
Hospitals are less occupied b/c elective surgeries are not being performed. This was a huge part of their business. And yes, people are afraid to go to the ER and were told, with certain symptoms (which could be the flu or pneumonia not from COVID) not to come.
And for some to present “data” while eliminating the deaths in nursing homes is peculiar, to say the least.
H, on Medicare and I, private insurance, are in two different HCP networks. We are receiving weekly emails saying ‘come back, we’re here, it’s safe.’ Yes, they are financially struggling.
H has had two visits to urgent care, thanks to all the home improvement projects he’s undertaken. Both times he was home 30 minutes after leaving the house. It’s a 10 minute round trip drive. There is NO one in the doc’s offices.
S finally saw a hand specialist. He was the only patient. H called off knee repair surgery and the receptionist just sighed.
I should have a preventative colonoscopy, a glaucoma check and a routine mammogram. I haven’t scheduled any of these.
Here’s the thing… for two of the above procedures someone has to get close up to my face. - especially for the eye exam. So, why would these be more or less risky than a cosmetic procedure like botox or filler? The RN that runs the cosmetic office has always worn a mask, the professionals providing the mammogram and glaucoma services have not. I’m sure they will be doing so now, as well as implement other safety precautions. But frankly, how does one get ones eyes examined without being within inches of the docs face?
The point…it would be safer to see the cosmetician than the eye doc. And in order to get the mammogram accomplished, the technician needs to get pretty up close and personal when positioning the girls. Again, no more risky than a cosmetic procedure.
I feel like this virus is propelling us back to the Seventies! Just read an article in the NY Times about the airlines, and how it is very likely they will have to raise airfares considerably since now they can’t jam everyone in like sardines. Air travel will be much more of a luxury.
I also think this pandemic has shown some people just how demanding dealing with young kids is. And if many opt for the homeschool route I predict we see many more Moms decide to stay at home and shoulder that burden – like the stay at home moms in the '70’s.
If global trade is curtailed, I expect it will be harder to get, say, French cheeses etc – again, like it was 50 years ago . . .
On the other hand, something very different from 50 years ago is the rate of scientific innovation. Everything could go right, on the other hand, and there might be an effective available vaccine soon. Who knows??!!
Pediatric immunizations are down 80%. That scares me more than other things right now.
It is not just elective surgery deferral that is keeping hospitals empty, @jym626. Our local ER, pre-Covid, saw 150 patients per day. Now, with Covid, it sees 60-80 patients. Deaths at home increased 30%. In a town of 125k, no one has presented with appendicitis in 2 months, which the doctors tell me just can not be happening. Real health needs are being ignored due to overblown fear.
People seem to have a short memory. It was explained when the shelter in place was first instituted that if people ultimately thought it was unnecessary because there was not much of a problem, it meant that IT WORKED.
My system is now doing elective surgeries at 75% of its capacity. People are definitely going back and seeing their physicians and having tests, procedures and surgeries.
Interesting that Norway credits their extremely good numbers on effectively closing down early… and they are planning to be slow to open to outsiders… basing their decisions on science.
When asked whether they would open their borders to Sweden the lady dodged the question, but Sweden wasn’t among the countries she specifically named wanting to open up to later this summer (like Germany).
Yes, as I said, people are afraid to go into the ER, and some who might have previously presented with flu-like symptoms are being told to stay home. Sadly, COVID also has been associated with cardiac and vascular issues, so some of the MI’s and strokes that are killing people at home might in fact be (a) directly covid related if they were otherwise asymptomatic and (b) indirectly covid related if people were afraid to go to the ER. Then there are the low income folks who often presented to the ER for things that were not emergencies. Those numbers may likely be down as well.
On a related note, why do people that insist others wear a mask to protect themselves and those around them fight so hard against law abiding citizens carrying a gun to protect themselves and those around them?
European medical journals are reporting an increase in late miscarriages (4+ months) and fetal deaths among pregnant women who test positive for Covid-19. Pathology reports indicate that placentas are abnormally small and show other physical anomalies and are often filled with blood clots.
D2 reports she had an identical case this week. Normal pregnancy until week 34 when the fetus stopped moving. Fetus was delivered dead & was non-revivable. Patient reported, when questioned, she had experienced typical Covid symptoms the previous week and patient tested positive for coronavirus. Pathology and other tests are in progress, but D2 reports the placenta looked abnormal at delivery.
