Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
'“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.’
Personally I think the death rates in those who are sick enough to be diagnosed is also a legitimate statistic and important one. A high % of people who were tested died and ended up in the hospital. Higher than that with the flu and most other things.
@“Cardinal Fang” I addressed the Gangelt study, its point estimate and the virologist’s own comments in my earlier post, to which I believe you responded (without apparently taking the time to watch the video I linked, even the few seconds I identified). Here it is:
Also, as you probably know, our own CDC actually estimated 0.40% IFR as its central estimate, but offered an adjustment based on asymptomatic case assumptions (not dissimilar to what the German virologist does in the linked video). I calculated the 0.26% a few days ago, but subsequently it has been reported in the media as 0.26% as well.
Last, I was specifically instructed by @MaineLonghorn to not cite to preprints or non-peer reviewed articles (absurd of course in light of how recent the COVID experience has been - just how quickly do people think the review process can go). So, I assume that your link in 5138 to the Gangelt preprint will be excised. I will help by reporting it.
The density of SF doesn’t begin to compare with NYC.
“The population density of NYC (27,013 people per square mile) dwarfs most other metropolitan areas of the United States. And if you only look at the population density of Manhattan (69,468 people per square mile), it still dwarfs other famously packed places internationally, such as Paris and Hong Kong.” https://www.topviewnyc.com/packages/the-population-density-of-new-york-city SF’s density is about 18,000 people per square mile, though there are neighborhoods with much more than that.
Essex County NJ has a density of 6k per square mile, but that density is by no means uniform. A good part of the population is in Newark, which is strongly connected to Manhattan by public transportation. The PATH train under the Hudson connects Newark with the New York subways, busses and trains. Moreover, one of the three big New York metro airports is Newark Airport, which would have received many infected European travelers.
If you look at the areas around New York City that have historically been places where people commute to work in New York City, and which still have strong commute routes to New York, they were all hard hit: Essex and Union in NJ, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk in New York, Fairfield in Connecticut.
Essential workers are more likely to take public transportation than inessential workers. You can’t shut down trains, busses and subways if you expect essential workers to get to work.
You limit the use of public transportation by shutting down inessential businesses, which is what the states of New Jersey and New York did, albeit too late.
Hospitals can use convoys and carpool for employees. Grocery stores can bus workers in. Contracts can be made with private services. In short, if NY continues to do what it did this time, expect to have the same results in the next wave, or at least the next pandemic. NY can’t expect to continue its practices and get different results next time by counting on some more benevolent federal assistance. It would make sense to take a hard look now at what can be changed.
And it has come to this. ESPN, the premier sports broadcast network flagship channel is showing a cornhole tournament on Saturday afternoon. No fans. The contestants are wearing masks.
I googled the first posters info re what the NYS board of health (actually name of agency is NYS Department of Health,) and nothing came up at all. I’d like @roycroftmom to post her cite for this information, because I have not been able to find it anywhere.
I did my first post-covid day trip yesterday: we drove to a Colorado ski resort town.
Large electric signs “Wear a Mask” as you drive into town. This community cut itself off after it shut down skiing: no one allowed unless they could prove the town was their official residence. Police did question whoever they didn’t recognize. Now stores are reopening, restaurants too, with serious restrictions. The hotels appear to be still shut down. People in and around town were wearing masks, though usually taking them off outside, unless they see someone coming. So, somewhat defeating the purpose of not touching their face.
Took a hike… hikers also wearing masks unless no one’s around. Sadly, a couple of bicyclist wized by us. No masks, and they were panting.
Employees live all over. Low-wage employees in the New York metro area don’t have cars. Convoys? Convoys of what? Grocery stores can bus workers? Bus workers from where? Is a bus supposed to drive to Newark, then Irvington, then Hoboken, swing up to the Bronx, take a trip over to Queens? How does this work?
Think creatively,@cardinalfang. I don’t live In NYC any more, but the problems are not insurmountable. Computer experts use algorithms to plot everything from bus routes to trash trucks pickups now, I expect there is a way to redeploy to specific resources. When hurricanes hit Houston, the chain grocery stores bused workers in from San Antonio. It may not work perfectly or even equitably, but it helped. The defeatist attitudes displayed here are unfortunate. There are smart people in NYC. Figure it out for next time.
NYC: subways, gypsy cabs/vans, buses, maybe elevators… all vectors of transmission. Then intra family spread within generally tight living quarters. Flu season, colds, lack of Vitamin D… All played roles in turning NYC into ground zero of the US pandemic.
To give you some idea of how insane NYC leadership is, after subway ridership was down 80-90% percent, they simply shortened the lengths of the trains. Gotta make sure the few left commuting were crammed in while every single MTA worker got 100% of their salary!