I agree. There is a difference between living with respect for the virus and living in fear of it. It isn’t an either/or choice between fear or business as usual.
But if the government wants to reintroduce the “immunity passport” idea, then I’d bet the idea of “covid parties” gets reintroduced too.
When the nursing home figures are finally sorted out for NY and the other high fatality/MM states, things might be a little clearer as to why they got whacked so hard. Or, maybe not… could be what the quality of the hospital you ended up in was, or whether you got put on a ventilator before they realized they were killing some.
Frankly, I don’t see how NYC can open up, being as densely populated and as dependent on mass-transit as it is. Comparisons to a densely populated Asian city that’s successfully battled the disease tends to run aground on the cultural and societal differences, not to mention that they’ll first have to run down almost every single case of the coronavirus.
Commercial real estate is likely to suck for quite a while.
Given that the WHO is still not recommending mask wearing unless one is taking care of an infected person, it’s really hard to picture the WHO recommending Chinese style lockdown.
Because shelter in place is for if you don’t do all the things the WHO recommended. They were posting throughout Jan, Feb, and March saying that massive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, robust airport screening by people who can do the above with PPE, etc were needed. they posted again and again and again, ‘the window of opportunity is closing but there is still time if you x, y, and z.’ All this time we did not do things things and the virus spread. That’s why we ended up doing shelter in place. You don’t start with shelter in place. You start with controlling the spread. After our travel ban, which didn’t actually ban people, 3.5 million people came to the usa from affected areas, including lock down areas of china. The USA evacuated about 3 big planes full of people from Wuhan around Jan 20 or Jan 21. We got people out even after the lockdown there started too. This was before we had a viable test so I’m not sure how they knew these people would not spread the virus. The countries that listened to the WHO or were doing the things they recommended anyway had much fewer cases and less spread, less fatalities. the countries that did not got hit a lot harder.
The shutting of international travel seems to have brought a lot of people out of China and Europe to the USA and furthered the spread, unfortunately. Also, we didn’t implement proper airport screening, either, which would have helped.
I do not agree with the WHO on masks, however, their other advice was spot on. Were you reading it throughout Jan, Feb, and March? They gave standard advice. We did not take this advice for the most part.
I don’t feel I’m afraid. I’m sad. I am concerned and worried that the ‘new normal’ means we are giving up and not going to try to get back what we lost as a nation and world. I’m very sad for young people today. Will we have to wear masks outside, even in summer, forever when in crowds? Will we get to walk through life carefree and have parties and weddings and graduations and etc without thinking of everything we touched? Yes, we can do that already now if we don’t care if we ourselves get sick or make other people sick (or even die), but that 's a big burden that has been placed our our shoulders. I look at my young student and feel so very sorry for them. I"m sorry for me and people older than me but I’m just sad for my students, my son, and all the young people who won’t get to have normal lives, it seems. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear the new normal is going to suck and be around a long time. I do not agree that there are two modes–living in fear or choosing to not be afraid. I think there are many modes people can be in. I think that choosing to follow medical advice from my doctors doesn’t mean ‘living in fear’.
Why? So posters can continue to spread the fake news about Covid being no worse than the flu? We see this here every day. And every day we have to tell them what you don’t want us to tell them. Maybe you’re complaining to the wrong posters.
I was following. We disagree on how timely or appropriate some of the recommendations were. Many of their recommendations - such as not wearing masks and not closing borders - are based on what is possible and works in third world countries.
It’s impossible for the BOH to maintain distance.
It’s very hot on the line, in front of the stoves & ovens, and tight quarters. If you haven’t stood there for 4-6 hours cooking non-stop it’s just difficult to imagine the heat, discomfort, & stress.
Compliance with masks where he works is not perfect, but also not awful. He does see employees with their mask on their chin, getting a breather, and he needs to remind them to pull it back up. That’s going to get old, he says.
There is no way they are going to play hard ball with the BOH employees over this. Waaay too many other pressing problems. Keep in mind, most of his BOH crew have been infected! They had to close for two weeks in April due to the outbreak.
The pair of restaurants I work for? No masks in the BOH. The chef doesn’t wear one, and neither does his crew. FOH staff will remove their masks when around other employees, but masks on (not gloves) when around customers.
Took both my boys for haircuts today. It’s been 3 months for the oldest and I’ve lost track of how long for the younger one. Both were ready and all went well. Mask on the entire time. Hair stylist masked up. Signed in online. Waited in waiting area which did surprise me. Chairs were in a grid 6 feet apart. Not a bad experience. Glad to be able to get haircuts again.
I hope people are not trying to be too dramatic about this situation. This is going to end at some point when there is vaccine and cure. Even without it, the virus is going to run its course as so many viruses. Our lives will go back to normal (going out and seeing our family and friends). I am hoping it will be better instead of status quo.
Ok, here’s a question. Just a simple poll, if you end up getting Corvid-19, what do you figure your personal odds of dying are? How about the odds you will have serious health issues past 6 months after recovering?
I figure my odds of death are less than 1%. I figure about .5%. As for risk of extended health issues, I’m going to go with similar odds.
These are just my thoughts based on cases and numbers in my state. Therefore I don’t feel really anxious about this virus and I realize I will almost certainly get this virus eventually and that is just life at this point.
What do you feel your risk numbers are? Just curious.
My risk is low. My husband’s is pretty high since he doesn’t have a spleen. My dad will almost certainly die if he gets it, since he already has very serious lung issues.
The way I look at it, I have to consider MYSELF at high risk since I must not infect my husband.
So what do you think are your actual odds of dying if you get it? 1%, 5%, 20%? What about your husband? Dad?
I’m just curious. Maybe this leads to why many of us view this virus so differently.
I certainly understand you being more cautious as you live with someone that is more vulnerable. That makes complete sense to me.
My risk numbers are zero if I don’t catch it. 
That’s Plan A at the moment. Sit back and watch, then figure out which way to take Plan A in another month or so.
I’m 100% comfortable at home - no stress - no nothing. It undoubtedly helps to enjoy being with the family members who are here, be on the introvert side of the scale (esp since online communication happens and phones still work), and to have the farm to “do” things on.
And at the moment I’m more preoccupied with watching how the oodles of riots develop - again - glad to be on the farm for myself. Not so glad med school lad is in an affected city. Right now he’s safe, but it’s too close for a mama’s comfort level.
They were not posting about masks very much. They were mainly posting that now is the time to hurry and get testing, contact tracing, quarantine, airport screening, and PPE in place. These things can control the spread and the window to do that was closing. They were right. Had we done those things we could have maybe avoided such a large shut down. That advice was very timely and urgent from the start of things.
There is some data on CFRs by age or pre-existing condition (but, annoyingly, not age and pre-existing condition to focus the risk profile further): https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid . Of course, deriving IFR from CFR requires assumption of chance of being asymptomatic (which may vary by age and other factors, apparently not well documented). There are other factors associated with risk (e.g. sex or gender, APOE4 gene), but there does not seem to be a model combining age, pre-existing condition, sex or gender, etc. to estimate a risk.
I.e. this looks like a (negative) lottery with poorly defined odds, though you could estimate a worst case and best case odds from the available information.
That is a bigger unknown. Anecdotes of significant damage or disability lasting after clearing the virus are worryingly common (including for some who recovered at home without ever having to be hospitalized), but there seems to be no published data on how common that is or how the risk of that varies by age and other factors.
I.e. this looks like a (negative) lottery with completely unknown odds.
H and I have about 20% risk of bad results if we get covid-19. Our kids probably 1-5%. My mom probably 20% or higher as she’s 90+.
Yeah, I’m watching that on TV right now. It certainly has changed to nation’s focus away from Corvid-19.