We will see in a few weeks, now that Florida is opening up again.
I expect cases and deaths to rise over the next six weeks.
You should have no trouble finding D3 just about anywhere. (And on the upside, Amazon Prime seems to be getting closer to more normal shipping times; that three weeks stuff was for the birds.)
It’s a can of worms though. Like a lot of vitamins/supplements, I’d take a trial and error approach - see how you feel. I’ve read that Vitamin D processing can deplete magnesium. There is also some thought that low levels may be an effect rather than a cause, a sort of self-protective angle. You can get levels measured - low D is extremely common, though if you have blood drawn, also check the other form aka calcitriol.
In all 3 scenarios presented by experts in today’s Ny times, cases and deaths will rise and fall in periodic waves from now on, possibly through July 2022.
H went to Sam’s Club today to buy meat for the restaurant & said the meat section was essentially empty.
Epidemiologists are puzzled by Florida as well.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/politics/florida-reopening-desantis/index.html
Although other warm-weather states like GA and LA haven’t fared as well.
Rhode Island got around that by requiring anyone coming into RI from another state for a non work related purpose, to quarantine for 14 days. They’ve pulled over cars with out of state plates and gone door to door in tourist areas looking for out of state plates, to warn visitors that they need to quarantine. There are fines for failing to comply.
Cases and/or deaths rising after states opening seems to be the most logical scenario, unless the warm weather (and/or any advances in the way the disease is handled medically) offset that. That needs to be entirely expected, with an eye toward capacity, as right now there is overabundance of capacity in much/most of the US.
I wonder whether we should be thinking about potential differences between, say, mid-March to late-April death rates vs death rates at present, as doctors/hospitals have learned better ways to handle hypoxic cases, more proning, more use of meds (even though they are not proven yet), anticoagulant use in-hospital becoming more standard hopefully, with ventilators being a last resort. When we look at risk, the risk right now (and especially a few months from now when more treatment study data is released so there are additional treatment options), might be a rather different number than it was in the first month or two.
That didn’t work out so well when they targeted NYS residents, did it?
I agree. Any area that doesn’t have 100% lockdown will have more cases. And more deaths. There is no way to prevent that unless every single area in the world locked down until 100% of the infections are cured and there was 0 travel. None of that is realistic. And none of that was the stated goal of the original SAH orders in the US.
The goal of SAH was to flatten the curve and keep infections to a level that could be dealt with by our healthcare system while we waited for treatments and cures. Many areas are at the point where their healthcare is no longer overwhelmed, so reduced restrictions - along with the increase in infection and even death - will happen. States will have to continue to watch their local conditions and adjust as needed to keep healthcare from being overwhelmed while still keeping some economic activity alive. There may need to be more shut downs, there may need to be more restrictions. But continued long term SAH is not practical or warranted for many areas.
That’s why they broadened it to all states…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/29/coronavirus-rhode-repeals-new-york-quarantine-order/2935755001/
- Rhode Island has repealed its quarantine order that applied only to those who traveled from the state of New York, broadening it to apply to all out-of-state travelers a day after New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo threatened to sue.*
I saw the article - and from my observations this ^^^^ is the only one that explains it. What do you think based on your own observations?
Florida never really “closed” - and didn’t implement - even close - what was implemented in states across the country. The elderly population is HUGE, they have several very large cities, etc… Tons of people went down to Florida when their own states closed. yet still, very few cases in proportion to the population. The only explanation that makes sense is weather and outdoor lifestyle.
DH bought a lot of ground hamburger just now. The meat section had been empty for a couple of weeks.
We shall see.
I anticipate a lot of states that have reopened having to closed down again in July.
Looks to me that both # of cases and # of deaths in Florida is increasing, after a dip at the end of April.
It’s also worth noting that Florida does not count deaths of non residents who die in Florida in their official counts.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html
Despite the media outrage against Florida (#Floridamorons trending on Twitter after Jacksonville opened beaches) the state did many things correctly.
My parents live in Collier County. The beaches opened last week and people are allowed to use the beach for all activities. Social distancing rules are being followed. However, many folks are still being very cautious and not going to the beach.
Restaurants have a lot of outdoor dining. I know indoor dining is at 25% capacity.
Masks still being worn in stores, one way aisles etc.
I personally do not think we are going to see a surge in Florida cases in the coming weeks.
I hope you all are right as my 90 year old mom lives in SE Florida. Fortunately for her and our family she won’t stop SAH. She is also not in a retirement community/assisted living/nursing home.
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens in Florida, and other reopened states in the next month to six weeks. I’m not optimistic at all (and public health officials are not either.)
From a model released yesterday by Columbia. This is one of the models CDC cites on their website.
I agree. If you were going to have a surge, you would have had it late March. Few shut downs, lots of vacationers down there at that time, very little mask wearing (just like the rest of the country - Masks were not recommended by the CDC until April). There is nothing ‘special’ that Florida did to prevent spread, and there is little spread and much less death than the demographics predicted. Logic says that its weather/outdoor lifestyle related. I’m not an epidemiologist but I can analyze data.
Reply #1519 at http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/22793730/#Comment_22793730 mentions a Wall Street Journal article that suggests that other factors may also have come into play, such as some local areas and private entities (Disney World) closing down, many people staying home to minimize contact with others even when there were no stay home orders from the government (despite the well publicized spring break people), and lower population density in much of the state.
There is no reason to be optimistic about any state, including Hawaii, where deaths will also soar when things open up, unless a vaccine comes first. Those folks at home haven’t developed any immunity, and will all be at risk for the next 2 years it takes for a vaccine.
Florida may have a slight advantage in that even active elderly people do not usually attend mass gatherings ar concerts, football games, amusement parks and the like.
The California governor has come up with a plan for re-opening. (I’d love to see the science on this one).
One main criteria is that a county cannot re-open indoor dining, offices, etc. until that county has no COVID cases in 14 days. The same rule applies to LA County (10 million people) as to Modoc County (10,000 people). There is no ‘science’ to arbitrary county borders. Some counties like Kern have most of their residents on the west side of the Sierra range, but also have residents in the deserts on the eastern side of the mountains. Riverside County is huge geographically speaking, going all the way to the Arizona line.
Anyway, using this guideline, LA County will not reopen for years. 10 million people could be going to food banks because one person died from COVID every two weeks.