And for that reason, a huge number of restaurants, shops, galleries, cafes, etc., in downtown areas will shut down even when SAH is lifted. Those who are blaming shutdowns for their economic ills are, to be blunt, barking up the wrong tree.
It’s not the shutdown that’s killed their business. It’s COVID and the subsequent effects. Until there is a widely available vaccine, those businesses dependent on thriving work areas – downtowns, financial districts, tech centers-- will not rebound for a long, long time.
The coverage I’ve seen on this issue suggests that if Florida included nonresidents in its death counts, the rates would be approximately 10% higher. Even if you assume the rates are understated by 20%, Florida would still be at only 8 deaths per 100,000 residents.
DH works in commercial real estate. He is not involved with office leasing, but he says that owning office buildings could be a huge liability as people who can work from home are discovering some huge benefits in doing so. DH has worked from home for the last 7 years.
He believes that even companies that rely on physical office space will nevertheless be downsizing as they continue to allow at least some of their employees to work remotely. There will be a lot of empty buildings in the future.
Emphasis on “small”. This small number of people will NOT make up for the large numbers of consumers who are concerned about the virus and have changed their way of living/shopping/socializing.
What about the Caribbean island Sint Maarten? They are the only country in the top ten for deaths per capita that is not in Europe. They currently have 327 deaths per million, just above Sweden at 314.
I imagine that Dutch tourists brought the virus there and it really took off. Despite the warm, sunny, and humid conditions in the Caribbean.
With the rule that LA County cannot fully open until there are no COVID deaths for 14 days, we will likely never open. Even after a vaccine, given that a vaccine is not 100% effective and given that 100% of people will not get a vaccine, there will likely be a COVID death every 14 days for years and years, until the virus itself dies out.
Forgive my frustrated ranting. But this just makes no sense at all.
And although we have most of California’s cases we have 1,458 deaths per 10 million residents. So 146 or so per million.
Re the California guidelines for a county to re-open certain businesses:
It’s slightly different. The county has to have no covid deaths in 14 days, and no more than 1 per 10,000 new covid cases. There are other criteria as well, having to do with the ability to detect and respond to an outbreak.
California never closed restaurants for takeout. As of today, across the state, counties can allow restaurants to open for outdoor seating, if the county agrees (mine has not). We are, as of today, in Stage 2, gradual re-openings.
If a county that is less affected wants to open up more (somewhat more, not all the way), they can follow the guidelines I linked upthread. In that case, they have to have no covid deaths for 14 days.
We can barely afford the current “old” new deal and with social security hurtling towards complete actuarial insolvency.
There’s no room for a “new” new deal. Pensions are at extreme risk and tax revenues are making state government debt a huge concern.
Programs. Social safety nets. Arts. Pensions. Child Advocacy. Public safety. Retirement safety. All at risk.
The WHO already said the next pandemic is poverty and food insecurity at levels we never imagined.
If we don’t get on with it, really, at some point in the near future. Online classes, gap years, social distancing and Florida beaches will seem like a distant memory in terms of real world concerns.
I’m sorry to add this but the economic concerns are not abstract and 1 percenter issues.
We need to take it slow and measured. As much protections, methods and reasonable changes to allow for this step by step re-animation.
It can’t and won’t be years. Maybe for hugs and socializing, unfortunately. That’s ok for a bigger goal if public safety. Erosion of some privacy measures. Hipaa and tracking apps. Ok by me.
But we can’t hibernate too much longer. It won’t work.
We will be forced to face the reality of bad choices. And to also not really look to assign blame. This virus has no ideology.
Curious what it will mean if you have a bunch of deferrals this year. Does that mean next year’s cycle will be much more competitive? Surely it would have an impact on dorm room space and availability of survey level classes and classes that meet general education / distribution requirements.
I had to go inside our Target today to buy items they wouldn’t bring to the car (frozen food, items on which they are low in stock, etc.). Half the town had to be in there. No line outside, but there were a group of women collecting donations for the food pantry (one is a friend I have been texting, but hadn’t seen since March 6). Everyone who entered had to pass within six feet of one of them. Everyone wore masks. Social distancing was being attempted, but pretty much futile because there was literally an employee restocking in every other aisle. I did not feel as safe there as at my much-less-crowded local grocery store.
Everything except hand sanitizer was in stock, including meat. They had a shelf full of Wet Wipes… not sure if you count that as hand sanitizer, though. They do the same job, but at a much higher price.
I completely agree that businesses are going to struggle to bring back customers. However, seeing how many people were willing to clamor into that Target store today, hearing about multiple house parties in Chicago this past weekend, hearing about the Orthodox Jewish willing to gather in large groups to attend a NY funeral, not to mention crowds on the beaches and plenty of other examples we’ve all seen or heard… I think businesses are going to have something to work with here.
It won’t be “business as usual” for a while, but, even in my SIP state, clearly there are people voting with their feet to leave quarantine. Owners can use those willing folks to experiment with creative new ways to organize and shape their businesses to maximize revenue in a safe manner. I am willing to let them have a go at it. As others have pointed out, if people don’t feel safe, they won’t go there. The onus is on the businesses to come up with inventive ways to make customers feel safe. A fighting chance.
Police in my town were never enforcing SAH, except for very large groups (haven’t heard of any locally). They aren’t even issuing speeding tickets unless the driver is reckless (officers’ judgement) to minimize contacts. While this has frustrated the covid cops, the police, also working under considerable pressure, have better things to do than play whack-a-mole with every teenage basketball game that crops up all over town.
@TatinG is worried that under the rules, hugely populous LA County can never re-open until there are no covid deaths in 14 days, because with 10 million people it might be impossible to eradicate covid entirely.
This is, I think, a misunderstanding of the plan. The state as a whole has stages of gradual re-opening. The governor has just moved us to stage 2, re-opening some lower risk businesses. Any county including LA County can now choose to re-open retail for curbside pickup, lower risk offices with social distancing modifications, manufacturing with social distancing modifications, childcare.
At some point (we hope!!!) the governor will move the entire state to Stage 3, with more enterprises opening up. The timing of that announcement will depend on what’s going on with covid cases and deaths, and also the availability of testing and contact tracing. At that point, LA County and all the other counties will be able to re-open hair salons and so forth, even though LA County would probably still have a smaller number of deaths in the preceding week.
Or people could just use the stairs. When I worked in a multistory building, I used the stairs whenever possible to go between floors, since waiting for the elevators took longer. Unfortunately, the building did not allow going upstairs from the ground floor.
Using the elevator also means touching the buttons to call them and select a floor to go to, unless you want the elevators to stop on every floor all the time (making them even slower).
Unwillingness to use mass transit could increase traffic congestion in some places, which would further increase the incentive to work from home when possible.
I think even if you fully open, you won’t be fully open. A lot of currently closed businesses will die right after opening because the consumers won’t be there. (And certainly not the workers, for whom it may be more beneficial to stay on unemployment than to return to work that won’t be there.) THAT’S THE NEW REALITY.