Further complicated because various steps do not produce the same results evenly across the country/various demographics. Its easier to say shut things down when you are not dependent on things being open/can work from home. Its easier to say open up when you are not in a high risk group.
CDC considers those with BMI over 30 at an increased risk of severe covid-19. Hopefully this will help dispel the myth of the ‘otherwise healthy’ obese.
Wow, thanks for this information. (And thanks to Mwfan1921.)
This will put a lot more school staff at risk now. I was wondering about the teachers/school staff who will not want to work because they are in high-risk category.
^^^I just looked at the CDC website on this. It was updated June 25. It appears that they have recalculated the serious risk category to those who have a BMI over 30. It previously was 40. (A person 5 foot 8 inches will have a BMI of just over 30 if he/she weighs 200 pounds.)
The CDC has also added sickle cell disease to the list. That could partially account for higher rates of disease among blacks.
Be forewarned, this is going to be long so if you want to skim through, be my guest ?
Observations and how this can get away from you in a minute.
I’ve been playing socially distanced golf this summer but have opted out of my leagues. I was playing golf with my friend and her daughter. The daughter works for a local allergist who is also a immunologist (Northern Michigan). Her doctor employer says that masks are not effective and there are studies that say that masks can be more harmful than helpful when worn incorrectly. In her office, no one wears masks (despite being mandated by the governor). I was flabbergasted but said that I was still wearing my mask. It’s cray, cray town here, I’m just saying.
How things can get out of control in a hurry.
My husband and I have been doing really well socially distancing. We have not been to any restaurants and are only socializing on the golf course. Other than that, the only people we have brought into our circle is my husband’s parents. They live 100 miles away.
We went to their house yesterday to spend an afternoon with them. My mil who has told us that they are avoiding restaurants (even asked for our advice one week ago about how to say no). My nieces birthday was Tuesday. My il’s went to a birthday party for her at a local restaurant, it was too cold to eat outside so they ate inside. The participants were, mil, fil, my brother in law, sister in law, the birthday girl and her boyfriend (from Ann Arbor), 2 grandsons and one girlfriend (from Ann Arbor) and the maternal grandparents.
Ok, so in laws broke their no restaurants rule. On Wednesday they went to my brother in laws house with the same participants for dinner.
Now my il’s have been exposed to young people from downstate plus another set of grandparents. Inside at a restaurant and inside a house, having a family gathering.
We show up on Thursday to visit and have dinner at in laws house. My husband and I have been really good but now we have expanded our circle not by our choice to many others including young people that we have no idea of what they are doing.
Unfortunately, no one has appointed or voted me Grand Pumba of the Universe in order to be able to do what I’d like to do - which is get rid of the virus or very quickly advance medical knowledge and ability to treat it for everyone who gets a bad case.
I’ve also never won a huge lottery in order to be able to fund as much as I’d love to fund. Our income is low enough that we still qualified to get the stimulus, so while it’s above average, it’s not going to keep us going forever if things really go south.
There comes a time where one has to put their family first to be sure they are cared for beyond a few months.
I should also note that H has always worked from home since 2000, so is doing nothing new other than turning down jobs where he must go to public meetings in person. So far, everyone has allowed him to call or zoom in instead so it’s been ok. Who knows if that will change.
I’m most likely to give up work at school, so in Aug/Sept, our income will go down.
Plus, we’re still having youngest and his wife here at our house with our paying all the additional bills for food, electric, and whatever, so expenses on that end has gone up. (It’s mainly our travel budget we haven’t been using and have been donating.)
But go ahead and think that my decision and thoughts are only marginally better than nothing if you like. I assume you are the one who will be saving the world.
Among African American newborns, 1 out of 365 have sickle cell disease, and 1 out of 13 have sickle cell trait, according to https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/sicklecell/data.html . Rate of sickle cell disease is probably lower for adults, due to some who have it dying young.
Social factors (money, medical insurance, racism, etc.) are likely to be a much bigger cause of racial disparities than sickle cell.
Although I feel it is a good move given the situation, this closing and opening and closing might be harder on businesses than just staying shut for awhile. Inventory and such.
Speaking of the industry, in my not town so far we have had a bakery, a mom & pop restaurant, a national chain restaurant, and a local chain restaurant go under permanently. My guess is some were on a questionable footing to begin with.
I am certainly not saving the world, @Creekland, nor am I making any comment on your personal finances. I was just hoping that others might both take action to support/vote for candidates who support more comprehensive health care, and show more understanding of the nuances of why millions of people feel they need to open up/work.
IMHO this is a bit of unnecessary snark, particularly directed at Creekland who is one of the friendliest voices on this site.
But I agree with your post upthread where you said that one thing we could do for those who have limited choices would be to push for universal healthcare in the US. I would add to that extending the $600 federal funding for the unemployed beyond the end of this month.
Agreed, @doschicos I would like to see a story with a business – with numbers – of how they are doing. Restaurants in particular have such small margins. I want to know how they are faring at 50%. And even if they can open at 50%, are they “full” at that 50%?
As many of us have long said, the economy won’t “reopen” until enough people feel like it can reopen. Is that happening? Are enough people dying (ugh, pun unintended) to eat in a restaurant that 50% capacity is reached?
I always have been a pull off the Band-aid type. I wish we’d locked down hard for a couple of weeks in early March. Everyone. This back-and-forth is going to cause more damage, because there is not a predictable end in sight and uncertainty breeds fear. I keep going back to what the schools are going to do. The (unannounced) plan in our district is that if one kid – ONE KID out of 900 at our elementary school – gets Covid, the entire school closes for two days and the kids in his/her group and his/her teacher/teachers are quarantined for two weeks. This isn’t sustainable. We are running out of time to make school in the fall at all possible.
The 30-40% number has to be a positivity rate, not a prevalence rate. If the prevalence rate was 30-40%, we would be a long way toward herd immunity. Declining positivity rates are a function of increased testing as much as anything.
I always vote. I always answer polls when I’m asked (phone, mail) even when I know the pollster has an agenda. I want them to know how I feel about any topic they bring up.
I also think opening up could have happened safely if enough people had followed the majority of experts’ advice with how to do it (expert is not the same as politician). So far the problems I’ve seen show up on here and in the news have been when people did their own thing instead, often with the follow up comment of, “I didn’t think it would happen to me.” Of course, there were also those who knew exactly what they were doing too. They just didn’t care.