Just to be clear, this isn’t necessarily a [a free speech zone](College campus free-speech zones face new scrutiny, lawsuit – Orange County Register). It’s awfully easy for people to get into heated conversations, which isn’t really the right spirit for healthy community interaction. Respecting each other means to back down when it’s clear an argument is starting to break out. I’m gonna do my best to keep things civil, but I’m only human.
I keep hearing that social distancing and mask wearing has saved us from more deaths, and it has, for now. The reality is the virus is still circulating and will continue to circulate until it is done, we reach herd immunity or am effective vaccine kicks in. Many more people are going to die. In the end the virus will find the people that are not 1000% safe. Not sure that’s possible for many.
In light of recent events in the country I’m not really going to focus as much on towing the line regarding the virus. I’m not that worried about my personal or family situation regarding it and apparently by the news coverage the country as a whole has moved on from it. If we’re going to allow lawlessness then wanting a little personal freedom shouldn’t be a crime.
Corvid-19 is here. The cats out of the bag. In the end hopefully we learn some things we can do better for the next one.
I am happy to see people sitting outside of restaurants eating. These businesses need that. I am hopeful since Maryland’s hospitalization numbers are dropping quickly that we can move to phase 2 this week and open inside dining to limited patrons.
I have no intention of returning to a lockdown. If we can be rioting then we can be free.
I’ve read this thread. Why is it appearing as unread? If it gets to be 5,000 posts and I’m sent back to page 1 every time I open it, I won’t bother.
@CCadmin_Jon I am having the same issue as @austinmshauri - the thread is appearing as unread, and I am taken back to the start of page 1 when I open it.
Works fine for me.
I am not. When I click on it I am taken to the last post I read.
I watched protests around the States this weekend. People were so packed together and breathing on each other. It did make Ozarks Park party like child play. I hope those protesters do not get infected and bring the virus back to their elderly family members.
As a parent, I called both of my kids every night to make sure they were home safely. I hope other parents will do the same.
My area opening up. Restaurants allowed to serve food outside. Servers and other employees called back to work.
Cases are certainly going to skyrocket. It doesn’t matter what the reason large scale and/or crowded gatherings is for. Look at the pictures of the boardwalk of Ocean City, Md from this weekend and last. Wall to wall people (and the boardwalk is miles long) and not a mask in site.
However, at the peaceful protests that were happening all day long yesterday I saw, most people at least had on masks as they were marching.
@MarylandJOE makes a very good point regarding the riots. We’ve been incessantly told by the media to social distance. We’ve been incessantly told by the media that we’re opening up way too soon, and in some states irresponsibly. Yet over a week’s period, there have been marches and riots including thousands of people in many cities and the cry for social distancing is virtually nowhere to be heard.
So it’s not OK to open churches, temples, and mosques? Not OK to open businesses, get your hair cut? We can’t put fans in the stands? But we can march shoulder to shoulder by hundreds or thousands?
Let’s get back to the science. We’re in this until we have treatment , vaccine or herd immunity. Covid-19 is not going away. The purpose of staying at home was to flatten the curve to save the healthcare system. Have two family member nurses on the frontlines, one in a hot spot in the northeast. The other one is in a less affected area and his hospital has already dismantled it’s Covid -19 ward because they just didn’t have the patient count necessary to dedicate resources. The healthcare system is settling down. The purpose of flattening the curve was never about preventing people from infection. It was about spreading out infection rate. Essentially, over a long period of time, the total number of people infected will be about the same without a vaccine. There’s no way to stop that unless our society is willing to literally be in lockdown for the foreseeable future. We’re not.
Prior to the redirect of media attention to the marches / riots, there was a fixation on “the numbers”. So many numbers are thrown about and many have very little meaning. Total number of cases, new cases, etc. These all need to be viewed with perspective. So when a state is “open” and there is more testing being done and the new case number has increased BUT the rate of increase has remained steady or decreased…THAT"S ACTUALLY GOOD! That means the risk of being open is a bit less than what we thought. Again, GOOD! Doesn’t need to be political. A rational person would think that was good news and not view it through any political lens. Good for the sake of being good, that’s it. Can we no longer do that?
what about the non peaceful protests? no masks and hundreds of thousands in the streets.
What about them? There will be virus spread because of them. It doesn’t matter the reason for the gathering/crowds. Whether it’s in a mega church with people not wearing masks, at a crowded bar/restaurant or at a riot. Crowds are crowds. The virus doesn’t care what activity one is engaged with.
@doschicos yes, this is the Covid thread continuation…for June.
So I’d like to see this thread focus on how we can help each other in this time of stress. Please bring news that is helpful and avoid trying to score political points. How can we adjust to the world that’s changing before our eyes? Let’s avoid assigning blame or shame.
While you are here, please maintain a civil and respectful attitude. If you can’t agree to that and demonstrate it in your responses, I request you sit this month out. If you are onboard, please be patient as I work through moderation here.
First of all I want to thank @CCadmin_Jon and say I think he gets the above just right. I follow the COVID threads closely though don’t post often. The one definite known with this virus is that we don’t know all that much about it.
Because of this we cannot really know with certainty how the future will unfold. I think all posters, even the ones I disagree with almost completely, are doing the best they can to navigate this unprecedented situation. We are all informed by our beliefs and experiences. I echo his call for respect and civility. If someone really annoys you, seriously, put them on ignore and please don’t reply (the world will continue turning without your opinion!). Not to say don’t reply if you disagree, only that if you are getting angry at someone your reply probably will reflect that and have a negative effect on the thread.
Ok, off soapbox!
Again, the virus doesn’t care what activity you are engaged in doing in a crowd.
“The spontaneous outpouring of protests are occurring as many states have warily begun reopening after weeks of stay-at-home orders with millions of American unemployed. Restaurants, schools, beaches and parks are under scrutiny as the public tentatively practices new forms of social distancing.
In Los Angeles, where demonstrations led to the closing of virus testing sites on Saturday, Mayor Eric Garcetti warned that the protests could become “super-spreader events,” referring to the types of gatherings, usually held in indoor settings, that can lead to an explosion of secondary infections.
Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a Republican, expressed concern that his state would see a spike in cases in about two weeks, which is about how long it takes for symptoms to emerge after someone is infected, while Atlanta’s mayor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, advised people who were out protesting “to go get a Covid test this week.”
Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. In addition, many of the demonstrators were wearing masks, and in some places, they appeared to be avoiding clustering too closely.”
“But others were more concerned about the risk posed by the marches. Dr. Howard Markel, a medical historian who studies pandemics, likened the protest crowds to the bond parades held in American cities like Philadelphia and Detroit in the midst of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which were often followed by spikes in influenza cases.
“Yes, the protests are outside, but they are all really close to each other, and in those cases, being outside doesn’t protect you nearly as much,” Dr. Markel said. “Public gatherings are public gatherings — it doesn’t matter what you’re protesting or cheering. That’s one reason we’re not having large baseball games and may not have college football this fall.”
In the protests I have seen, many had masks but were packed close together, and yelling and singing enhance spread. I am also concerned about spread through the eyes. Even sunglasses might help with that, but most protesters had no eye protection.
We’ll see in the next two weeks. If there is no uptick, then we can feel safer in various situations (at least outdoors). If there is an uptick, then we will know we need to continue distancing and staying to ourselves as much as possible.
I think some people, especially the young, are making a choice to take the risk in order to protest. They feel it is worth it. I have told my kids that real change takes a lot of time, but the high emotions this week make it almost impossible for many to stay home.
This week of protest may or may not effect any changes, but basically constitute an experiment on virus spread outdoors in close quarters. I hope people are okay. I hope the curve stays flatter.
ps Regarding comparison to the 1968 flu, I thought that the contagiousness of COVID-19 for asymptomatic and presymptomatic folks made it more dangerous. Correct me if that is wrong.
If we don’t see surges from these protests, I’ll personally feel more confident in the future regarding the virus. To me, it would mean summer is having a positive effect as there’s really no other reason to give credit to - esp when many of the protests and riots are in very hot spots.
No idea on the HK flu question you posed, @compmom. I was just wondering about the role of the media and public health experts at the time. Even if that flu was over 2 winters, it still killed a lot of people, and coincided with the measles and deadly rubella outbreaks that year, at a time when the US population was about half of what it is now. The measles/rubella outbreaks affected largely children and pregnant women. I do not recall much public angst, but others might. Did schools close? Mine did not. Did the elderly stay inside? I realize other things were going on then as well, but was it regarded as a public health emergency?
Some new polling data on continuing SAH vs opening up for the economy.
I personally enjoy reading the fact based observations (especially regarding the numbers) and how things are evolving in other parts of the country. Unlike others who seem to have a crystal ball on everything that will happen, I don’t.
what I’m most interested in hearing about is progress on the vaccine, therapeutics, and TESTING.
Quoting back from other thread since its closed:
VMT wrote: »
@OneMoreToGo2021 - I watched the video of Levitt describing how Covid is not spreading exponentially. Looking at the data that he has plotted from New Zealand, and noting that there were two distinct increases in disease spread, the early portion of each “surge” is exponential. The slope of the curve is increasing on a log scale. The slope then decreases (the curve flattens) when there are mitigating factors; in this case, a strict lockdown. I don’t see a problem with referring to the spread of Covid disease as exponential, as the data supports that and is consistent with what we know about the spread of infectious disease.I am happy to correct it, in this or the June thread, but I would suggest to the OP to rewatch the video carefully, and note Levitt’s conclusion at the end, “so, basically, we see now that from the very first confirmed case the rate of growth…was never exponential…instead the constant growth rate is decreasing rapidly…it’s decreasing at an exponential rate [!!]…”
Here I have linked to that part of the talk, with accompanying text:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o&feature=youtu.be&t=335
@VMT - rewatch it and if you still do not understand the graphs and the concepts, I am happy to help, really, no snark intended. I think it is important to have a sense of how numbers work even for non-technical people. Feel free to PM if you like.
@Cardinal Fang - I am disappointed that you agreed with that post (as they said in The Godfather, “you broke my heart, [Fang]” lol), because I know you have some mathematical sophistication. This is pretty elementary math (your husband and my son tackled this while still in their single digit years).
Watch it again, I am sure that you know that the curve of a log-transformed function will be linear over intervals where there is constant (exponential) rate of increase, but convex over intervals where the rate is slowing (i.e., is not exponential). Levitt helpfully super-imposed the charts of the first derivative of those curves (both Gompertz or sigmoid functions could be used to fit the data well, but there are no doubt others that could be used), and as you can see they are decreasing linearly implying that the rate of growth is actually decreasing on an exponential basis. (See, e.g. 2:37, the fitted line at 3:27, etc.) You can also see by simple inspection that all the curves used for the raw data (log-transformed) are convex.
Now, I know this post will not be “liked” or “agreed” or listed as “helpful,” even though I am providing actual information that can help people think about this disease. We all suffer from confirmation bias, the unwillingness to analyze contradictory evidence in the face of a held belief, but I would submit that the unwillingness to think in a pandemic like this will have far reaching economic and societal consequences. That is why I recommended Haight’s book in my original post (The Righteous Mind). It helped me understand what is really going on with public, and even scientific, discourse.
I think this post is helpful, why wouldn’t I? Maybe your own confirmation bias
Was there a lack of testing in the beginning of the outbreak in New Zealand, like there was here? So you are saying the lock-down was extremely effective in bringing down the infection rates in New Zealand but the virus didn’t grow exponentially to get to peak infections?