Coronavirus thread for June

Probably me. :slight_smile:

I’m sure the uptick we are seeing is the first swallows of the protests (9 days and counting). I think we will see fewer hospitalizations per x cases because the initial wave of the new cases will be in the younger folks who typically don’t end up in hospitals. This, however, will likely get followed by an uptick in household infections, so the next wave after that will likely have more hospitalizations.

I’m in the San Francisco Bay Area. Isn’t BunsenBurner in WA?

Yup.

Women are usually considered more vulnerable and sympathetic figures and as such should be protected a little more diligently?

Not complaining as to it… I’m male.

I think it depends on the situation. People spread the virus. People are free to make their own choices, but those choices to have consequences. Where is the line of what is reasonable? I don’t know. But I would say mid-height of the pandemic, to be flouting the stay at home orders to sightsee was highly irresponsible and could easily have spread to virus to many and resulted in an increasing chain of cases and deaths. and the person could traipse around carefree and not knowing this if they were an astymptomatic spreader.

Where is the line? I think everyone has to decide for themself but wearing a mask when out would be a nice gesture to help stop spread. Following state guidelines would be as well.

I greatly worry that we have opened too soon and that the current protests along with the early opening (not early if we had testing and contact tracing ready to go as we were told it would be in some cases), that we are going to to get a horrible fall and winter with many more fatalities. Ro over 1 is scary and many states currently have that. I hope the fall and winter will not be bad but I think that is likely.

But to say one’s actions don’t kill grandma, um, I can’t say that. How is grandma or anyone getting sick? They are getting it from other people. So, people can all make up their own minds but some are certainly doing things that are going to result in other people dying and I think a good amount of those are reasonably preventable in ways that don’t require people to live in their homes forever.

Only throwing things out that I’ve read of and kept up with.

  • There's still speculation that a recent bout with a coronavirus cold may provide some immunity. Might not be true at all but, if so, would suggest a plausible reason for why children aren't thought to be spreading the virus.

(Along with suggesting that herd immunity infection rates won’t necessarily need to be the 50 to 60% range that been kicked around.)

  • Along with the Lancet and NEJM retraction of what looks to be a fraud, there are a number of Hydroxycholoroquine treatment studies that have been published. The only one I've seen that reported positive outcomes is one from NYU hospitals (I think) that looked at results when zinc was included in the treatment.

There’s still a U of Minn / McGill trial out that did include Zinc and was reportedly set up very well. Was supposed to conclude around the end of May.

We’ll see.

I’m looking at the Washington data and not seeing an uptick. New case numbers jumps around a bit. I’m not seeing a recent number of 449 new cases. Worldometer has 223 for today.

From Texas: At 1,940 new cases, that’s a single-day record. Another source says second-worst day. Yet we’re opening amusement parks now.

Enron was defrauding “grandma Millie,” and good kids are always helping a “grandma” cross the street, so… I guess we use “grandma” to refer to an old person.

Positive thing about this thread: I only permit myself to read while on the exercise bike. :slight_smile: the more posts, the healthier!

This number comes from the paper:

I need to look at the WA DOH data on my PC; I do not trust what our paper sometimes presents as the new cases. Most of the time, “new” cases include backlog reporting, so part of the number should be spread over several days. Agree, the actual curves are more indicative of the increase.

Thanks for clarifying @BunsenBurner and @“Cardinal Fang” . You were both on my radar because I am in Seattle but my son is in Bay Area so interested in into for both.

The debilitating effects of COVID-19 on survivors can last for several months:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

OK. Wow. Apologies, do not usually comment on videos I haven’t watched, but don’t have the time just now. . But wow… he seriously thinks that cases just happened to decline after social distancing measures were implemented? Does he think that was a coincidence? And if so, how does he explain the lower case rates in areas where distancing was implemented earlier? And how does he explain Bergamo, where an estimated 45% of the population was infected? Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

^ It’s probably best to watch the video.

So I have watched part of it and now have to go to work, but what I have gleaned so far: he’s a mathematician, not a virologist, looking for a numerical explanation for country variations in levels of infection. It’s implausible that 80% of a population is not susceptible to a virus that we have never seen. Resistance to viruses generally results from natural selection; i.e. if I don’t die from COVID, I can pass my genes on. The notion that the population randomly has 80% resistance to a new virus that is readily transmitted and causes severe disease is biologically implausible. A better explanation for variance among countries is that environmental, cultural, and demographic factors are affecting rates of transmission. This guy is a modeler, and as they say on TWIV, all models are wrong. Some are useful.

There are people out there who believe the earth is flat…

Interestingly - many of us use the model under that assumption with no problems every time we consult a map. :slight_smile:

I am not an TWIV expert, having only heard it a couple of times, but this may support their oft-quoted idea about how all models are wrong but some are useful!

Last evening we decided to get pizza from one of our favorite bars in town. We hadn’t gotten take out from this particular place since the world turned upside down. The establishment has two doors, one on each corner of the front side of the building. One was listed as “Enter” and the other “Exit.” Perfect! I walked inside and saw taped lines spaced 6ft apart, a long table where pizzas would be placed for pick up and a roped off area to approach the bar for payment. But wait…5 seconds after entering I realize that NO ONE is wearing masks! In fact, there are two old timers standing at the corner of the bar having a drink, with no masks. The woman behind the bar that takes your payment says to me, “Honey, you don’t need to wear a mask in here.” Am I dreaming? Is this really happening? I kept my mask on, picked up my pizza and paid a the bar. The best part, to actually exit through the “Exit” door I had to walk within a foot of the two old timers standing at the corner of the bar because that’s exactly where the door is.

This morning I went to grab an iced coffee from the drive-thru. The woman that handed me my coffee had her mask under her chin.

I live in the Northeast.

All our restaurants are doing curb side pickup and take your payment over the phone. I wouldn’t order from any restaurant that wasn’t doing those two things.

They are not even open for eating inside, just patio dining here. I’m in the northeast, too.