Coronavirus thread for June

Parent Cafe
901

I don’t think it is a matter of whether or not missing a high school graduation is the greatest tragedy of all time - clearly, it isn’t. The question is whether the current situation warrants the level of restriction described, and it sounds to me like it doesn’t. We’d be talking about an outdoor graduation in a large venue that permitted distancing, presumably with spectators limited to just the parens, and with masks. There could have been othe workarounds, like having students walk across the stage individually, but having them pick up the diplomas from a number of tables arranged off stage after (or, possibly, just before, so that they would have it when they crossed the stage).

This is particularly true given the relatively low case and fatality numbers MarylandJOE is describing.

902

So did the spike in cases in AZ have anything to do with antibody testing?

903

@apprenticeprof - on first glance, I might agree with you that a distanced, outdoors graduation could be fine. But in practice, something else happened. The school where I teach had a distanced outdoors graduation and unfortunately social distancing went out the window. I didn’t attend, but I was sent photo after photo of all kinds of hugging/etc. photos with no masks and no effort to be apart. Many different combinations of people.

I think that public health recommendations have to focus on what most people will do, and not on a theoretical perfect user. (Like that hilarious comparison of masks with contraception.) This is one reason that they give newborns a Hep-B vaccine right at birth - fear that on average, too many families might not show up later for the shot.

904

I have been struggling to understand why it is okay to have large protest groups, yet it is not okay to have large groups (outside) for other events. (And I don’t need lectures or quotes about Constitutional amendments – what I mean is that I am struggling within my personal values structure as to why public health is paramount in one instance but not another. I also don’t need people accusing me of being a racist, which I see is becoming the norm here at least in certain threads on CC). Already in my area, there is a sizable minority who don’t wear masks, don’t social distance, and don’t believe in the virus. The protests are making them flaunt the rules even more. I know there’s a significant chance that there will be a surge, but (in my area as everywhere) it will be difficult to determine whether the surges are from protests or just the general reopening, or both. We’re coming close to the time limit (up to a month to allow for time to develop symptoms, get a test, get that test result back, and then when that test resulted is added to the state database) when we’ll see if any Memorial Day crowds have caused any surge in my area.

This article was interesting: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/6/6/21279592/protest-pandemic-covid-19-risk-second-wave-systemic-racism

905

This is a good interview with an epidemiologist. Here are highlights.

3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.
There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.

If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.

One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.

Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 10 minutes, instead of five, to avoid contracting the disease.

We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.

We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.

Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.

The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/

906

Having just watched NBC’s update on the virus, it sounds pretty gloomy ahead. Reportedly (on TV, so someone else can post a link if they find one), even some National Guard troops at the protests in DC last week have recently tested positive.

I feel for those who must work or otherwise interact with the public. Everyone else can make their own choices and see what happens. I hope all the medical workers can stay safe as they try to help both those affected and those with other medical needs.

907

I hope the police and national guard troops can stay safe while trying to keep some order. I have had my own difficulties dealing with police, but I do appreciate the difficult work they’ve had in the last few weeks. I also hope not too many protesters are infected with the virus.

908

According to a public health expert in Arizona (didn’t catch his name) I saw on TV last night, they were hoping, like the flu does in Arizona, CV-19 would wane in summer, but it hasn’t.

I assume just as many people indoors in hot Arizona summers this summer as in a “normal” summer.

Bottom line is - CV19 is nothing like the flu. Expecting it to “go away” in summer was just wishful thinking.

909

In the next 2 weeks to a month, we’ll see the effects of opening up and the demonstrations on COVID19 spread.

We have been very careful about not interacting with anyone we do not know well enough to know how they are staying isolated. No one to clean the house because As well as I know our housekeeper, I have no idea how she lives her personal life. She lives with several people in a small apartment and there is no way to know what they are doing. If absolutely necessary to have someone from the outside come into the house, for an important repair, for example, I’d have a masked, gloved person, come in while we are outside, and let them do what’s necessary. So, a cleaning person who operates that way would likely be safe. Key is staying out of the house for that period of time, and some, and staying away from the person.

Yes, people are getting less and less careful. And no matter how one looks at it, those protests are risky for spread of COVID19. I hope the virus is on the wane, or I don’t see how the number of cases don’t skyrocket. Perhaps warm weather does reduce virus strength and number. As I said, we’ll soon find out.

I don’t know anyone personally who has had active COVID19 for sure, though I know friends/family of people I know to the point I’d call them an acquaintance. I know a lot of people who have tested for the anti bodies who have gotten mixed results. I know folks who tested positive insist on a second test, and come up negative on that and later are negative for Antibodies.

I’m in an area where the rates of tests, positive test results, hospitalizations, and deaths are very very low. The first 2 things are very much correlated. With very little testing, and practically no antibody testing, really no reliable stat how prevalent the virus here is and has been. I’m personally presuming low, because very few seeking the test due to symptoms, fewer than averages of those testing positive, and also the low hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID19. But then, maybe this area has a hardy group population not showing symptoms of COVID19. That it’s sparsely populated and doesn’t get much in way of outsiders helps, I know. And amazingly to me, despite these low numbers, high social distancing compliance.

Stay safe, everyone. This COVID19 sounds like a nasty cluster of monsters, and we don’t have a good handle on how it lives. The testing info, expert proclamations seem to be all over the place. We just know it can be very damaging, fatal.

910

Many southern states that opened earlier are seeing uptick of infections, especially FL, TX, NC and AZ. Those increases are not due to the recent protests. We probably won’t see the effect of hospitalization rate attributed to protests until July 4th.

911

Given that the majority of protesters and law enforcement were under age 40 or so, and that age group is rarely hospitalized, we may not see much uptick in admissions.

912

https://www.businessinsider.com/dc-national-guard-troops-positive-coronavirus-protests-2020-6

913

According to VA (which has a MUCH better website than PA as I discovered at FIL’s house), 8.9% of those age 30-39 are hospitalized. 4.1% of those 20-29 are.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/ (one has to select demographics near the top next to dashboard)

Our definitions of rare might differ.

My lad is in his 20s, not hospitalized, and still dealing with what may be permanent after effects in his lungs. Time will tell. I still haven’t seen odds for that - only that it has been happening worldwide.

914

To piggyback on what @oldfort posted.

Spikes/surges we are seeing now are from Memorial Day weekend and states reopening. Not the protests, yet.

“As the number of new coronavirus cases continues to increase worldwide, and more than a dozen states and Puerto Rico are recording their highest averages of new cases since the pandemic began, hospitalizations in at least nine states have been on the rise since Memorial Day.
In Texas, North and South Carolina, California, Oregon, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah and Arizona, there are an increasing number of patients under supervised care since the holiday weekend because of coronavirus infections. The spikes generally began in the past couple weeks and in most states are trending higher.
Data from states that are reporting some of their highest seven-day averages of new cases is disproving the notion that the country is seeing such a spike in cases solely because of the continued increase in testing, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/

915

Mills is out of touch with what is going on in other states if she expects these out of state visitors to get tested prior to visiting. Many of us still can’t get tested even if we wanted to.

916

Ohio still limited.

"As of June 2, testing should be made available to individuals described in Priorities 1, 2, 3, and 4. At a later date yet to be determined, Priority 5 will be implemented. Further priorities may be added in the future. "

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/healthcare-providers-and-local-health-districts/for-healthcare-providers/updated-covid-19-testing-guidance

917

I agree. I don’t know how she expects this to happen. You can’t call up your doctor and say we want to go on vacation in ME so everyone in the house needs a test.

918

This morning we were able to pull up outside the closest urgent care to us (we are in northern VA) and my daughter got a covid test done while in sitting in the car (she wanted to be tested because she’s been going to protests for 12 days). They asked her insurance info (though told her it would be free either way), but otherwise didn’t require any specific symptoms or anything to get tested. The whole process took about ten minutes.

919

@roycroftmom yeah, the majority of protesters are young. Do they live in a vacuum? I’m sure these young people will interact with people of all ages. I’m sure more than you think are high risk.

I get it, the protests are important, but we can’t just pretend it isn’t risky.

920

No. The large increase is in PCR testing. Only 3% of the antibody tests are coming back positive, and far fewer antibody tests are being run. Percent positive PCR tests is over 10% now, and back in mid-May when reopening started, it was down at 5-6%.