Absolutely agree that gathering 60k people together, regardless of reason, and even if outside, is going to lead to massive contagion.
And likely 6000 or 600 or even if the “wrong” people are there, 60 or 6.
They need to figure out how to tell superspreaders from those who just have it.
Has anyone found credible info as to whether the superspreaders are just those who go out a lot spreading it or if it’s something unknown between Persons A and B doing the same thing while infected, but A spreads it and B doesn’t?
Despite limited testing in Ohio, the tests being done do seem to be well targeted. Limits are not based on lab capacity, but the limited reagents, swabs and PPE that the state needs to utilize as effectively as possible.
"WHO recommended to countries last month that before opening, their test positivity rate should remain at 5% or lower for at least two weeks.
Analysis from Johns Hopkins University indicates Ohio broke the 5% threshold last week and has stayed below it since then. Ohio is one of 29 states that meet WHO’s threshold."
https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2020/06/09/new-covid-19-cases-slow-down-over-last-month-in-ohio/
Let’s keep this epidemiologist’s prediction front of mind. I personally will file it alongside the epidemiological predictions fashionable three decades ago that AIDS would lead to the “depopulation” of Africa.
And the prediction that New York would need 30,000+ ventilators, made just two weeks prior to the state’s hitting its peak utilization of fewer than 6,000. Remember how much ink was spilled and how much outrage expressed that the Defense Production Act wasn’t invoked to “commandeer” private factories for vent production?
My local bar is doing a nice job with social distancing in their outside area. They have eliminated 1/2 of of the tables and no standing is allowed. They request that when you are anyplace other than the table that you wear a mask.
The risky part was sitting a table with 6 people not from my household
Would any of the following matter in terms of who becomes a superspreader?
(1) Higher viral load (similar to the idea that presymptomatic > asymptomatic in spreading).
(2) Presence among others (a) indoors or in enclosed spaces, (b) where others are on continuous contact for longer period of time, (c) where others are in closer proximity, such as in more crowded places.
We likely will not see that many severe cases, given the ages, and general health of the demonstrators, in the next week to two after all of this started. I agree. But unless those young people have been quarantining themselves from the more vulnerable population, or those who are in that more vulnerable population are quarantining themselves , the numbers will hit within a month.
I know a number of people who work as health care aides. I sure do hope the measures they are taking at work—gloves, masks, Sanitizing etc are sufficient time keep them from infecting their patients, because many of them are NOT being all that careful once they leave their work. They have kids. They are not quarantining selves. They are not being super careful. They may have been in those demonstrations. My cousin said she saw heroine of her aunt’s aides, maskless with a bunch of other massless folks, hanging around a high risk neighborhood. At her aunt’s house, that aide is exudes the very picture of ideal COVID19 decorum. Home life,…umm, not so much.
So, with whom do these demonstrators have contact, after they go home from these marches? In my case, I’m just being extra careful about being around anyone these days. In fact, I’m kinda regretting the outdoor eating venue I attended this past weekend. No idea if my server, who was very careful to maintain 6 ft distance , gloved and masked, set food on a serving table and we had to get up and bring over to us, lives a wild life, Covid19 carefree lifestyle outside of this job.
But I have the groceries loaded into car, after calling in my grocery order. I go early in the morning to shop in person and self check out, using the sanitizers at hand. Glove up, mask up, pitch the gloves each time, stay at least 6 ft from anyone outside of my household. Glad to say that my housemates, are also being very careful. Though one will be easing up as he is going back into work soon.
A super spreader has higher viral load, but the cause isn’t known.
By the way, for people who are following IFR projections for COVID, we can infer estimated IFR range from these figures.
This epidemiologist, quoted approvingly on this forum without comment so far other than from me, is apparently estimating 0.34 - 0.78% IFR across all age and risk cohorts combined. Not too far off my initial estimate of 0.20 - 0.50%, but I do not think there is a chance in the world that the virus reaches 60-70% penetration within 18 months, vaccine or no.
As I said in earlier posts, it’s going to come down to those of us who really want to reduce our chances of getting this as low as possible, to take the social distancing and quarantine measures. You cannot trust anyone as to what measures they are taking after they leave your presence. The gloved and masked electrician that is so very careful around you, could whip off his mask and go back to a life of high risk exposure once off the job. He could have been at the weekend protests, shoulder to shoulder with others with mask slipping off face half the time. YOU don’t know. No one does. So, YOU, meaning each person who wants to protect self, has to be very strict about contact with others.
I’ve written how Ive been living since. Loosening up a bit. Had to have some contact with outsiders, and will have to be having more, increasingly. Too bad these demos are happening during what should be a bit of a break with warm weather, before the Fall/winter RSV season hits, when experts say COVID19 is going to go on an uptick. Or maybe it’s a good thing that these demonstrations are happening during what should be a bit of a lull when people putting off medical procedures and other non life dependent but essential, important work done. I HAD to let an electrician into the house. We HAD to take car to get fixed. I really need to have a dentist look at my teeth and continue some work we started last year. DH really should get medical checkup and work done, or increase prospects of life threatening issues. Putting off some things can have dire consequences with a probability higher than getting COVID19 dire consequences
But each of us has to take protective steps ourselves. Many disabled folks with compromised immune systems and fragile health have had to live this way. We had a bit of a break these past months with the country pretty much all living this way. But now it’s going to be a lot more on each of us individually. Can’t control what others do.
Policies can focus on reducing ‘super spreading events’ to lower transmission. The event is what creates an opportunity for the virus to infect multiple people.
“Coronavirus superspreader events have shared a few key characteristics: They’ve involved indoor gatherings in which a lot of people from different households were in close, extended contact.”
I do agree with the scientist who said we should settle in for the long haul. There is little reason to think the situation will be any better next Spring or even Fall 2021, so we need to find a workable way of living with it. People will learn to manage their own risk as best they can balancing other priorities.
We went to a New Jersey beach yesterday. People on the beach were not wearing masks, but were definitely social distancing. A beautiful day - my burn not so nice!
We played mini golf - no issues as it was a weekday and not crowded. They put a cut piece of pool noodle in the hole so you only touched your golf ball when retrieving it - clever. They wiped down equipment and hand sanitizer was available.
Did curbside pickup up for pizza and took it to a waterside park to eat. Again, people doing a great job distancing.
It was a great day - I just wonder how a Saturday looks? And we didn’t go on the boardwalk.
I think it is more that it is still OK to be upset about things even if they are not the greatest tragedy. This situation is hard on most people in various ways. In a normal year missing the end of senior year would be seen as a hard thing. And this isn’t a normal year so for many parents and kids it is even harder. Of course that isn’t a comparison to more severe and serious issues.
The school where I work is supposed to have a reverse parade but if it rains plans some indoor thing where students walk past teachers/staff who are ‘socially distanced’. While the reverse parade seems fairly safe, standing outside for over 4 1/2 hours socially distances with people who are screaming and cheering for students makes me a bit concerned but the idea of being in a narrow hallway 6 feet away from a bunch of others for 4 1/2 hours does not at all feel safe to me. I do not think there is any way people won’t do things like hug, high five, take masks off, etc.
This is bad. It’s misleading. I can’t think of a good reason to add the PCR tests and the antibody tests together.
With the PCR tests, we have a pretty good idea of who is being tested: people that doctors suspect are infected, people who think they’re infected, and some other people. If we see a high rate of positives, we know that one of two bad things is true: (1) a lot of people are sick or (2) they’re not doing enough tests and they should be doing more tests to find outbreaks. If we see low positivity, that’s good.
The antibody tests aren’t helpful because we have no idea who is being tested. We don’t know how to interpret the results.
Adding antibody tests and PCR tests pollutes the somewhat useful PCR results with the pretty useless antibody results.
There’s no way of totally eliminating risk, but as this disease IS going to be around for a while, we have to find some ways of dealing with it. Not having any semblance of a normal graduation is small potatoes in the scheme of things, but so are a lot of things that we typically consider part of ordinary and meaningful lives. In the end, it is all trivial. But the trivial matters to us.
Yes, people are going to violate social distancing and mask rules. Even so, a carefully run outdoor graduation in a large space in an area that doesn’t have a terribly high rate of infection/hospitalization/death seems to me the kind of risk we need to be at least permitting people to take unless we’re going to defer any semblance of normal life indefinitely, which would come with a whole lot of less trivial costs than a lost high school graduation.
I think about this a lot too. The question turns on “okay.” Okay for who?
Do you mean, is it okay for government to permit or sponsor protests but not other large outdoor events? Or do you mean, is it okay for you to go to outdoor events?
Consider the former. The government is surely not sponsoring protests. When the police/National Guard/military try to disperse the protests, it’s not working. We can’t really say that the government is approving of the protests, let alone sponsoring them.
On the other hand, if a public school has an outdoor graduation, that puts a seal of approval on the outdoor event. That would be a stronger endorsement of an action that (at least in some areas) public health authorities forbid or discourage.
Some of the protests I’ve seen don’t look dangerous as far as covid, even some of the big ones. Some do look dangerous. The biggest dangers, in my view, are the clashes with the police/military/prison guards, and the jails and holding cells the protestors are put in.
Excellent graphics in this NY Times piece on excess deaths:
“How the Coronavirus Compares With 100 Years of Deadly Events: Only the worst disasters completely upend normal patterns of death, overshadowing, if only briefly, everyday causes like cancer, heart disease and car accidents. Here’s how the devastation brought by the pandemic in 25 cities and regions compares with historical events.”
Schools are adapting differently to make it special for the seniors:
There is a private high school by us with only 180 seniors, so they had an outdoor graduation that only the students could attend. They were out on the football field, spaced out in chairs about 10 feet from the next chair. No parents and family attended.
My D20’s high school has a drive-by graduation scheduled for tomorrow. We are decorating the car and she will have her cap and gown on and they will announce her name on a loud speaker. They also prepared a Zoom video presentation for later in the night where the graduates “walk the stage” (they filmed this several weeks ago) and there will be speeches, etc. In fact the local news had D’s high school featured on the news where their high school yearbook photos were shown on the screen in several news telecasts honoring local 2020 high school graduates.
The point being is you can still have a memorable graduation as high schools have been very creative in making it a “special moment” for these graduates and yet doing it safely.