@BuckeyeMWDSG - According to Ralph Baric, who was interviewed on TWiV 626, there may be people who are superspreaders due to their particular physiology. They may produce far more small particles while breathing because of how their upper airway works. The discussion of this starts around 59:10.
Also wonder how that result would translate to the vented US patient population which is likely older and sicker than the patients on ventilators in the U.K. Need to see age etc. data.
Great news, but can you help me with the math? I would think that 35% decrease in death rate means that if 8 people were going to die, only 5 (5.2) would now die. That’s preventing 2 deaths in 8, not 1. What am I missing?
Me
8 people are on ventilators. Not all 8 of those will die. Whatever percentage of those would die, I don’t have the stats in front of me, would now be less.
Maryland’s latest numbers from today.
Total hospitalizations down another 3 to 742. ICU patients down 8 to 284. Percent testing positive down another 0.35%. Still testing about their goal ok 10k. Yesterday did 10,497 tests. 377 positive tests returned and 7,740 negative tested returned yesterday.
All good news. Keep up the trend.
I had to stop by one of the restaurants last night to pick up a gift card to drop in the mail.
It was chilly & no one was eating on the patio.
3 tables inside. 1 table was the owners. Illinois does not allow inside dining yet. Soon!
5 people, all regulars, at the small bar. One regular hopped off her bar stool & ran over to say hi to me.
That was awkward.
There is no way one can spin this as good news, imo.
“Florida’s Department of Health on Tuesday morning confirmed 2,783 additional cases of COVID-19, setting another daily total record high since the start of the pandemic. The state now has a total of 80,109 confirmed cases.
Previously, the highest daily total recorded was on Saturday when 2,581 cases were reported. There were also 55 new deaths announced Tuesday, raising the statewide death toll to 2,993.”
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243564522.html
I’m interested in knowing how your mom’s CCRC is failing her. I work in this industry and am curious.
So the steroid dexamethasone probably reduces inflammation and tamps down the immune response that is responsible for some of the dangers of COVID.
I am curious if it is dangerous if given earlier since the immune system would not be able to handle the virus as well, since it is an immune depressant (people are on steroids after transplants, for instance).
I also want to note that people with diabetes may see their blood sugars triple on steroids.
One of my kids has type 1. She had steroids in the hospital and I managed her blood sugars because the hospital had no idea. We raised the basal rate on her pump to triple the usual, one hour before the meds were given, and changed the alarms on her CGM. If I am not allowed in the hospital, hoping they let me manage remotely using the CGM app.
Both type 1’s and type 2’s end up with high blood sugars from infections, and then add steroids and you have quite a struggle. HIgh blood sugars encourage infections. Of course insulin itself is dangerous so if you overshoot you get serious lows.
Good news about dexamethasone but hoping that the issues for diabetes are mentioned since they are one of the main at-risk groups.
Was the hospital visit Covid related?
Yes, the roids story early on was that timing was critical, it isn’t like the roids are a new RX in Covid. The devil will be in the details and the pts that died early on might look like a pretty different cohort now in the UK, I expect ICU admission is really strictly based on potential outcome. I cannot imagine that pts even back in the beginning wouldn’t have had roids at some point.
The actual CDC report is here:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm?s_cid=mm6924e2_w#T3_down
But it’s confusing and probably non-representative. They looked at a very large number, 1,320,488, of confirmed covid cases. But they couldn’t do the full analysis of all of them, because they didn’t have the information. There’s not a lot of reason to believe that the people for whom they had all the information were similar to the people for whom they didn’t have information.
They had symptom information for about half of them. Of those, 4% were asymptomatic. I’d say this is a poor estimate for the asymptomatic rate of covid, much too low. More likely, if someone was asymptomatic or had a light case, their symptoms (or lack thereof) were never recorded and they were not in the bunch of people who had symptom information.
They had info on the presence of underlying health conditions for about one in five of the people.
They had information about whether the person had died on about a third of the people. Of those, 5% died. Even if we assume that none of the other two-thirds died, the death rate (1.8%) is still too high.
I don’t know what the point of this report is, if the people they looked at are not representative of everyone who has covid. And they’re not.
Once I drilled down I realized that a lot of the information was way more limited than first glance made it seem. So I had the same reaction.
The CDC report also said that a person between the ages of 10 and 30 who tests positive and who has no underlying conditions has about a 1 in 40 chance of being hospitalized.
You don’t get to pick and choose here. Believe the report, or don’t. If you think these numbers are not representative of everyone who gets covid, then you don’t get to believe just the parts you like, the parts about how it’s mostly people with underlying conditions who get sick.
That sounds about right. Almost no one between 10-19, some in the 20-24 range, and up sharply in 25-30.
https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics
Can I get another set of eyes?
Besides looking at the individual daily press releases (number of new cases and additional deaths, positivity), is there a way to pull up recent stats?
It’s easy to see the grand totals. But I’m not seeing how to easily see what’s happening now, say in June.
Here is our county: https://covid19response-lakecountyil.hub.arcgis.com
The CDC report said 2.3% of those between 10 and 19 who had no underlying condition were hospitalized.
@cmfl11 Since you are following Florida closely, have you been able to glean information on the source of these new cases and deaths? Young people (new cases?), nursing homes (deaths?) or neither? I’m trying to understand what is driving the outbreak in Florida.
I think you have to compute them. If you hover over the graphs, you get the data for each day.
With Florida testing so much more in the last two weeks, beginning really on June 3rd, I would certainly expect to see many more positive cases showing up these days. And with results taking days to over a week to come back this would easily correlate to the increasing numbers.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/florida_coronavirus_tests_administered_per_day
Also, remember, a higher daily death total could be deaths from weeks ago that were just now confirmed as covid-19. It’s better in my opinion to look at the graphs over time as opposed to strictly daily totals. The daily deaths graph isn’t showing a big spike. In fact it just seems to oscillate up and down generally travelling at the same levels.