^ This is from psychiatrist Dr David Puder. He has a podcast geared towards professionals in the mental health field.
He is also a weight lifter and that is where I found him — on a strength training podcast.
The above link is for a CBT worksheet he put together, with a COVID focus.
Not everyone is a worksheet kind of person!
I like to write out little reminders for myself to help stay balanced & focused. I also write down things I’m grateful for. I find it really does help!
Very interesting study.
“We found that superspreading has overwhelmingly contributed to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the city overall.
Of the 349 local cases we identified — the remaining 689 cases were imported from other territories — 196 were linked to just six superspreading events. One person alone appears to have infected 73 individuals after frequenting several bars in late March. Weddings, temples, hot-pot dinners, work parties and karaoke venues featured in the other clusters.”
“In our study, just 20 percent of cases, all of them involving social gatherings, accounted for an astonishing 80 percent of transmissions. (That, along with other things, suggests that the dispersion factor, k, of SARS-CoV-2 is about 0.45).”
“Another 10 percent of cases accounted for the remaining 20 percent of transmissions — with each of these infected people on average spreading the virus to only one other person, maybe two people. This mostly occurred within households.”
“No less astonishing was this corollary finding: Seventy percent of the people infected did not pass on the virus to anyone.
“Now you might be wondering if our study, or the experience of Hong Kong, with its small number of total infections, is more broadly representative. We think so.”
“But the record in both places, and elsewhere, points to the same conclusion: It’s not just that superspreading events are happening with SARS-CoV-2; they appear to be driving much of the pandemic.”
This fact is alarming and reassuring at the same time.
“It’s alarming because it suggests a virus swift and efficient, and so seemingly unstoppable.”
“But the considerable role of superspreading in this pandemic should be reassuring, too, because it also suggests a way to stop SARS-CoV-2 that is both less onerous and more effective than many of the strategies that have been pursued so far.”
“The epidemic’s growth can be controlled with tactics far less disruptive, socially and economically, than the extended lockdowns or other extreme forms of social distancing that much of the world has experienced over the past few months.”
“Forget about maintaining — or, if infections resurge, resuming — sweeping measures designed to stem the virus’s spread in all forms. Just focus on stopping the superspreading.”
I wanted to thank you all for the intelligent and helpful conversations on this thread. I’ve been looking forward to new updates here.
This seems very comprehensive. It leaves me with two questions:
and
San Diego County is also asking why cases aren’t going up with the loosening of restrictions. They believe it’s because a large number of citizens are actually following the rules under the restrictions:
@emilybee, I hope the study you posted is true. It fits with what I know about some individuals in my area who tested positive, but no one in their household got it. If it’s true that superspreaders account for 80% of transmissions, that would inform my movements going forward.
Meanwhile here in Ontario our numbers are back up. They had been falling for a few days but are now back above 400 per day. Testing levels are still not where they are supposed to be, falling short of the target of 20,000 tests/day. The majority of cases still appear to be in health care locations like hospitals and long term care homes in both residents and staff. The military was brought in to help bolster staffing levels in some LTC homes which has resulted in many of them testing positive as well. It would appear they are still having difficulties with infection control. Our provincial government is looking to extend our emergency orders to June 30th. We are currently at stage 1. There were some recent relaxation of rules:
Current restrictions still include:
Masks are recommended in situations where social distancing is not possible but not mandatory. Most people outdoors are not wearing them. I was at a grocery store yesterday where the majority of employees and customers were not wearing masks (including the 70+ year old shopping cart retriever). Employees at the pharmacy I went to were wearing masks but customers were not required to (and most weren’t). This is in contrast to the other grocery store that I shop at that has a very strict mask policy and enforcement of social distancing for both staff and customers.
I don’t know for sure but probably commercial vendors who sell to only businesses would be my guess.
I think the steaming of garments is a great idea but likely much easier in small shops like this store.
The NY Op-ed about superspreading is silent on exactly what to do to stop superspreading. But they do say what appears to be dangerous.
So far, outdoor events don’t seem to be dangerous. (Good news for @MarylandJOE; attending football games looks pretty safe.) Weddings, bars, indoor sporting events, church services, crowded open workplaces, restaurants. parties in people’s homes still look bad. Casual contacts appear to be pretty safe.
We can’t just ignore the virus or it’ll most likely come roaring back in the fall, when people go back inside. But seemingly we know what to target. Also, if we could get masks on those superspreaders’ faces we’d probably reduce a lot of transmission.
@“Cardinal Fang”
Thanks for the outdoors update. I would like to go to an event or two. I’m sure I’ll visit the beach at some point.
It’s interesting to read about the superspreader statistics too. I wonder if there’s a way to get a handle on what makes a superspreader? Interesting times.
Well I am not looking forward to going back to work. I went in today for two back to back WebEx meetings. WebEx doesn’t work well in my house, so I said I’d pop in and join my boss. As of last Friday, masks are to be worn in public buildings. However, employees don’t have to wear them unless they want to, are interacting with a public customer, or can’t be 6 feet apart. I saw very few masks around the building - as in two not including mine.
The main issue is that in my office we have about 5-6 employees who have been there the whole time. They are socially starved. I walk into the office and they all FLOCK to my cubicle and want to chat. 6 people gathered around, no masks. ACK! I told them to back away, but they are all of the mindset that this is all overblown. I’m not near as strict as some people, but please just back away. And then our meeting of 2 in our open conference area quickly became 4 with 3 others constantly walking back and forth “needing things.” And there’s no room to get by, so constant bumping body parts. And I while I wore my mask for most of it, nobody else did, and if I had to talk I’d have to take it off to be heard on a speaker phone 15-20 feet away. Ugh. 2 hours of that did not make me feel good at all. Younger S has to have his wisdom teeth out Friday - they are breaking through and causing problems - and I really want us all to make it until that date in 1 piece.
The co-workers are all excited that I’m supposed to be back on June 10th as per the Governor order. That was the original date. I haven’t heard anything from local officials that will be the case, but it probably will. I’m thinking about taping a dowel rod across my cubbie entrance and draping a sheet over it. Or maybe once we are all there, they will stay in their respective spots? Please pass me the chill pills…
Uff. Read your post and nodding.
I’m experiencing something similar when I need to be on-site at the restaurant.
I’m less anxious bc I’ve been infected already, but who knows how long my psychological immune defense will last.
I hope you are able to find a solution.
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The problem with attending a football game isn’t just about sitting in bleachers outdoors, it’s the going to the indoor bathroom with dozens, if not hundreds, of other fans, waiting in packed lines to get your popcorn and beer, and taking crowded public transportation (buses/trains) to and from the game are just a few examples of some of the issues associated with large groups of people in such a close, confined space at a football, baseball, soccer or other sport event.
I’m not sure how the in-person fan experience will work unless they put significant limits on the amount of people allowed in the stands. Michigan’s “The Big House” holds 110,000 fans. I don’t see that being at full capacity for a game until at the earliest fall 2021.
I’m sure someone - perhaps several someones - is already doing it, but the next thing to look at is what’s different between the spreaders and those who don’t. Assuming my son had it, why didn’t his wife get it? The pastor he likely caught it from passed it on to his own kids and my lad. Then my lad didn’t pass it on to his wife (isolated otherwise) or perhaps she was asymptomatic. I guess we don’t know that for him.
The virus causes different things with different people - some get lung or heart or kidney or digestive issues. Some get fevers, others don’t. Many get absolutely nothing with some of those passing it on and others not. Are there any common denominators? Some seem to recover completely and others are taking longer (if they recover). Anything common there?
The investigation opportunities are exploding. Hopefully someone will nail it and soon.
It’s only been a week since Memorial Day. One would think we’d have an inkling in another week or two (time for onset of symptoms and test results).
I can see where many who might have caught it are reluctant to get tested to avoid any “I told you so” shamings so it might take an additional week or two for the bad cases to start showing up at the hospital. Initial symptoms usually don’t require it.
By July 4th we should definitely know.
The latest victim of the Coronavirus is my favorite resale store. It’s been closed since the March shutdowns and when I was driving to the grocery store I saw that it’s now empty and there’s a “for sale” sign out front. Over the years I’ve gotten so many pristine, designer, well made clothes there for a bargain so I’m very sad it didn’t survive.
There’s another fantastic thrift/consignment store in town that I’ve been concerned about. It’s run by volunteers, donates profits to several important charities and has really amazing merchandise (Florida is the final resting place of people from all over and apparently they have some very interesting things that need to be disposed of when they go.) Unfortunately, most of their volunteer workers appear to be well over the age of 65 so I wasn’t sure how safe it would be for them to work in a store like this where there the merchandise itself is touched by many people, there are swarms of customers crowding narrow aisles and any sort of distancing is tough. But so far, when I’ve gone by they appear to be still operating. I’m going to wait a month or so to see if infections tick in our area tick up and if not, I’ll go back to see how they’re doing and what measures they have in place. I don’t tend to go there for clothes but there is no better place to look for housewares, kitchen items, china, serving pieces, barware, decorations and even interesting furniture. I’ve been slowly picking up pieces for my oldest son, who will be moving into his own apartment this fall. It’s his first time living outside home or a dorm, so he needs kitchen stuff. I’ve gotten him everything from glassware to a Le Creuset dutch oven to a few AllClad pieces to a tea set (don’t ask - he loves tea and is a weird kid) there.
Each person decides where s/he stands in terms of risk to self. Some cases are more clear cut than others. If you have a temporary immune suppressed situation or are a major contact to a high risk person who is avoiding as much contact as possible, you continue to take stringent measures, including near total seclusion. I have a friend doing so as she cares for her brother who is immunosuppressive, and her elderly mother. She will be taking MORE precautions now since things are loosening up and she will not have the extra protection that COVID19 rules gave her. She’ll continue to shop early or do pick up, wear gloves and a N95 mask. Even a coverall when she steps out of the house. Careful social distancing at all times as well as extra hand washing and cleaning everything Coming into the house.
Some people have decided, despite their higher risks with it, they want to enjoy lives as fully as they can. They want to interact personally with the grandchildren, babies, family , go to weddings and other events. Two elderly relatives who have health risks, have decided they do not want to spend the last few months of their lives social distancing. Not worth it to them.
And then there’s making it as safe as possible to others out there regardless of their safety concerns. Wearing masks in crowded situations seems right to me, even when the state doesn’t or establishment does not do stipulate.
I, for one, am not going back to the way I was last year at this time. Doubling the hand washing at very least (and I’ve always been a prolific hand washer. Wearing plastic gloves more. Consciously working on not touching face and being aware of being to close to others. Keeping a mask handy in car and purse, using it even when policy is lifted. I’m going to personally be more careful, and will likely go back into hidingvif there is an uptick in the fall as some are predicting.
The numbers I’ve seen for household transmission are around 20%. That is to say, if a person is infected, 20% of the time they infect another household member. Or it might be that each household member of an infected person has a 20% chance of being infected. In any case, most household members don’t get infected, for whatever reason.
As to superspreaders, it looks very like superspreaders talk or sing. Superspreading occurs in loud places, places where someone needs to raise their voice to be heard, or where they’re raising their voice in song. It could be that loud talking/singing not only makes the superspreader better at spreading, but makes everyone else more likely to be infected, because in breathing deeply to talk/sing, they inhale the virus.
My naive view is that to stop superspreading events, we have to stop people going to places where superspreading occurs. And get people to wear masks when inside in crowds.
I have the perfect solution! Team logo masks and team logo Depends undergarments!
I have never been to a sporting event where fans don’t yell loudly, chant, cheer, or even sing - except Wimbledon, where whispering is even frowned upon. You may, however, politely clap.
I don’t think sporting events will have fans in the stands until at least next year.
Since there seems to be about 4,000 fans at most Baltimore Oriole’s games they should be good to go in a post-Covid world.