I have heard 10,000 several times
I believe the “process of college admissions” is similar to the insurance business…so think of it from a statistics/actuarial perspective. UMich will get about 60,000 applications this year based on trends from the last few years ('16 - 55,504; '15 - 51,761). They track ratio’s. “Selectivity Ratio” is the number of admission letters they send out relative to applications. Historically, this number has been declining but the last two years have been at 29% and 26%. Let’s estimate 27% for this year which means UMich will send admissions letters to about 16,200 students. I would be foolish of them to admit all 16,200 students from EA because they may get some really good applicants from RD. Likewise, they aren’t going to wait until “early April” to send out the bulk of them, because… They also track “Yield Ratio” which is the number of acceptances they get from students relative to the number of admission letters they send out. Historically, they have been at 42% (+/- 2%). Let’s assume they stay at 42% which means they will yield about 6,804 incoming freshman. (Last year, they had 6,689 new freshman). So who cares you may be asking yourself? All of these ratios fluctuate throughout the admissions process…from the date the first application came in (August 1, 2016) to the very last acceptance. (May 1, 2017)
The primary goal of Admissions is to get the “BEST” freshman class BUT within the constraint of how many students they can accept…let’s assume about 6,800 new freshman (There is only so many professors, so many classes, so many dorm rooms…SO BIG OF A BUDGET.) So logically, Admissions isn’t going to send out a “ton” of admittance letters on 4/30/17 because their yield will be unpredictable and they may end up with only 5,800 new freshman. Likewise, they are going to monitor their yield ratio and adjust their “selectivity” by issuing more or less admittance letters. Admissions also understands that students need time to ponder all of their options. Therefore, from a statistical and logical perspective, I suspect nearly all admittance letters will come out by the end of March with only a minuscule small number coming out in early April to fine tune the ratios they are trying to hit. This gives the Admissions Office the best probability of getting the BEST FRESMAN CLASS WHILE ACHIEVING THEIR GOAL OF ABOUT 6,800 NEW FRESHMAN coming in September. Ironically, if you have been following College Confidential and looking back historically at previous years, this is consistent with what has been happening. I suspect 98%-99% of all admittance letters will be sent out on or about 3/31/17. Odds are if you don’t have it by then, you will either be Waitlisted or Denied unless you are part of that 1-2%. Just my thoughts…I could be totally wrong but I suspect this is relatively close to reality. Stay Calm…if my theory is correct, we only have 15 more days to wait for the vast majority of us. By the way, I’m EA Deferred and have been patiently waiting since I submitted my App in Oct so I feel your pain…I’m just trying to wrap my head around why I haven’t heard anything.
@WIuMich amen
Basically, what he is saying is that if yield increases, less acceptances. The higher the yield and lower the acceptance rate, the higher the college is ranked by US news. If they increase in rankings, the more applications they receive. More applications, lower acceptance rate and a higher yield. Cycle starts over and so on and so forth. It is a vicious cycle, friends.
The only way to end the cycle would be for UofM to stop accepting common app. Less applications, higher acceptance rate, lower yield and then they fall in the rankings. There is no chance that UofM takes that sort of hit.
So, they will continue to make us wait to make sure they get the best yield, and thus soar in the rankings. It is actually really clever when you think about it from their perspective, but incredibly brutal (relatively speaking) for us applicants.
@UofMichigan1999 - With how calm and analytical your thinking is, UofM clearly should have admitted you ASAP! You have laid this all out so nicely, and I have no doubt that you are correct. I have one son who will graduate from UofM, COE, this April and he already has a job - which is fantastic AND he has spent all four years in the marching band and in the hockey pep band and literally, has had the time of his life in Ann Arbor!
However, I also have a son who is waiting to hear about his admission to the same college (deferred from Early Admission). The wait is becoming physically painful, however, (at least for me) - - the son who is waiting has higher scores, gpa and stats that his older brother did and even his HAIL interviewer could not understand why he was deferred. When he originally applied, UofM was the ONLY school he applied to but after his deferral, he applied to Stanford, Northwestern, Columbia (NYC), Clemson and smaller local colleges (we are in state). Clemson has offered him a decent scholarship and we will be visiting there in April.
There is no other way to put it but that the waiting is PAINFUL - for parents too and the last thing in the world I ever wanted was for him to go to college in South Carolina, California or New York City but that could happen and if it does, this Mom may never forgive UofM for it.
if U of M got 10K more apps than last year, they should admit more people too -__- like honestly its a huge university and if only 6,800 kids actually enroll i’m sure they end up having room for a few hundrud more anyways… like seriously ://
Imagine waiting 6 months and stressing about this every single day of your life to end up finding you’ve been rejected and/or waitlisted 
deferrals are the worst thing ever, I need my decision NOWWWW.
but seriously i check wolverine access every single day, just to look at my deferral letter for the 100th time !!! LUVVV!!
@MMBTubaMom13 haha thank you! My mom is on the exact same boat as you are! She doesn’t want me to go anywhere too far away so I am trying to stay close to the nest! Everything will work out for my family and I if I get a yes in the ensuing weeks.
The other reason they (and other schools) will never move away from the common app - besides the fact that they look SO much more competitive and selective - is they collect anywhere from $50-$85 (depending on the school) per app. Nice little revenue source. For all you math and engineering majors, what is $75 x 60,000 for UM? No doubt there is a cost but the dirty little secret is they often spent sometimes just a couple of minutes if that on an application. They glance at the GPA, the scores if the beginning of the essay is grammar challenged, they move on. You can’t spend 30 minutes on a college app and make money. Plus they have 3 readers for each app so they have to move VERY quickly. Any hiring manger will tell you they know what to look for and will spend 30 seconds tops on a resume. Essentially the same thing. Can you do well at UM? Can you contribute to UM academically, socially, etc.?
are we expecting an update at midnight?
No way of knowing but I guess it’s possible
It doesn’t work that way…more applicants shouldn’t necessarily mean more admit letters! UMich is a State School which means their budgets are set by the State Legislature and the Board of Regents. (I’m OOS so at least that is how it happens for our State run universities.) School budgets dictate number of professors, number of classes, number of dorm rooms, etc…which in turn dictate how many new freshman can be admitted regardless of the number of applicants. Sure, UMich could raise tuition and room/board but that causes other problems for politicians, for the university, for parents and for the student. (Not to mention yield rate would go down because less people can actually afford the higher costs.) All of this is a delicate balance (Budgets, No. of new freshman, no. of applicants, no. of admittance, no. of acceptance, selectivity ratios, yield ratios, etc…) The bottom line is we are all just a statistic to an admissions officer…don’t take it personal. The better your GPA, your ACT, your EC’s…statistically the better chance you have of being admitted. (Unfortunately, nothing in life is always fair…sorry for being so blunt but welcome to the real world!) Admissions Officers don’t intentionally want to make this a painful process…but they too have a job to do. Yes painful for you and I, but put yourself in their shoes… Good luck to everyone over the next 15 days. I really do hope all your dreams come true.
also, more applicants doesn’t necessarily mean more people want to go to umich so they cannot accept more spots. more people are now able to apply to 10-20 colleges at once and yield rates are lowered.
@WIuMich how many more acceptances do you think are left between now and early April based on what you’ve calculated
i wish ivy kids would pull their apps once they get in somewhere they’d rather go it’s so frustrating that someone’s dream school acceptance is in their hands and they aren’t even gonna go there… wish they would hear back sooner from the rest
shoutout #umich for making this the most stressful month of my entire life !!!
someone tell me to stop refreshing my e-mail thinking i’m gonna have an e-mail sitting there from u mich like
tbh i’d rather they reject me then waitlist me i did not wait all this way to get waitlisted noppppeeee
@uofmfan Same tbh